Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Gains, Pains & Capital argues Fed policy never eliminated inflation, only displaced it across categories and time Official CPI down from peak levels, but housing still elevated Insurance costs remain one of the fastest rising major expense categories Federal interest expense rising above $1T annually, adding fiscal pressure into price structure Higher rates increasing debt …
As shown below, the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown. I haven’t published the WRS for some time and “Walmart Worries” just keep multiplying. For the details see my latest @ https://t.co/cmZvbGqspf pic.twitter.com/GU4EJg2Hx6 — Jim Paulsen (@jimwpaulsen) March 30, 2026 Walmart recession signal on …
AMD stock dropped 17% Wednesday. Some analysts had predicted the chipmaker would provide stronger guidance for the first quarter amid an ongoing artificial intelligence boom. AMD’s stock has surged more than 100% in the past year on the back of rising demand for chips. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices dropped 17% on Wednesday after its first-quarter …
ADP National Employment Report And What the Headline Misses About Today’s Labor Market ADP says private employers added 41,000 jobs in December, framing it as a rebound. But when you slow down and look at where those jobs came from, the picture changes. Nearly all of the net… pic.twitter.com/D1zs99G6CR — EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) January 27, …
The latest run of global economic data points increasingly toward a synchronized slowdown in which cyclical weakness is colliding with long-standing structural constraints. The result is growing evidence that policy transmission is breaking down across key economies. China’s contractionary signals are intensifying, US labor and housing data continue to drift downward despite headline stability, and …
Yikes. ADP employment report shows -32,000 jobs lost in November. Most industries were doing layoffs. The only ones still are hiring are hospitality and healthcare. But look at employment by firm size. There's a K-shaped economy among firms, too. Larger companies are still… pic.twitter.com/CsMQ4UAAyZ — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 3, 2025 On US macroeconomic data: …
Overall, unemployment is rising across white-collar roles, and fresh college graduates are facing one of the toughest job markets in years. Even Harvard MBA graduates aren’t exempt.Yet the market continues to sit near all-time highs. https://t.co/HR4KSgoP44 — optionGeek (@StockShark16) November 25, 2025 Today’s rally has all the hallmarks of a bearish setup. As I mentioned …
“Achieving these results required additional incentives, resulting in a reduced average sales price of $383,000, and our gross margin drifted down to 17.5%, while our SG&A expenses came in at 8.2%, reflecting the soft market conditions.” Source: https://newsroom.lennar.com/2025-09-18-Lennar-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results “The average sales price for new homes dropped to $389,000, an 8.7% decline year-over-year, and a striking …
🚨 BREAKING! 🇨🇳 China's August Economic Data MISSES Across the Board: 📉 Retail Sales YoY 3.4% (est. 3.9%, prev. 3.7%)📉 Industrial Production YoY 5.2% (est. 5.7%, prev. 5.7%)📈 Unemployment Rate 5.3% (est. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%)Jan-Aug 📉 Fixed Asset Investment YoY 0.5% (est.… pic.twitter.com/totPuytZVq — MacroMicro (@MacroMicroMe) September 15, 2025 China’s economic slowdown deepened in August …
Sherwin Williams cutting its 401(k) match is a pretty loud signal about where the cracks are showing in the economy. The company lives and dies by housing turnover and renovation cycles. Normally, people buying and selling homes drive paint demand, and DIY projects keep the volume steady. But with mortgage rates still locking people into …
Emerging market stocks, long fueled by global trade, are now showing cracks as export momentum fades. Investors may be walking into the late stages of a rally built on weakening foundations. If trade continues to contract, the ripple effects could hit supply chains and markets worldwide with surprising speed. Global exports are heading into contraction. …
Rate cuts: like putting a band-aid on a sinking ship. For those begging for rate cuts, look back at 2001 and 2008. The Fed started cutting right before unemployment spiked. The pivot wasn’t a win, it was the signal that the real damage was about to hit. If the economy was healthy and booming, there …
Prediction: Q2 was the best GDP print we see this year. We spent that quarter front loading inventory ahead of the tariffs. We will see what the tariffed economy really looks like in the second half of the year. Expecting a slowdown. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 13, 2025 what if the Fed cuts rates …
With almost no GDP growth per capita, no big trade deals, how exactly is Canada going to be “its own best customer”? Get ready for tough times. pic.twitter.com/vhXHb2C620 — Ryan Gerritsen🇨🇦🇳🇱 (@ryangerritsen) August 3, 2025 🚨Great News: Canada is Caving on Tariffs. Carney and Trump about to strike a deal. pic.twitter.com/bXt6nL7uF7 — Juanita Broaddrick (@atensnut) …
Supply chain jitters deepen with sustained trucking decline. US trucking volumes are down 14% YoY. The diversion in the direction freight market started in earnest around early February, around the start of some of the chaotic messaging around tariffs began. pic.twitter.com/FB8PDZCLhx — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) July 21, 2025 Here you go… pic.twitter.com/KBrTFHqyn6 — Craig …
E-commerce volumes are stalling across key retail categories. This isn’t seasonal noise. It’s systemic friction. Consumers are pulling back. Tariff pressure is shifting behavior. High-income brackets are still spending. The rest are freezing up. The latest AlixPartners retail index shows a multi-point year-over-year drop in online purchases across nearly every major segment. Sporting goods saw …
It’s infuriating to watch economists cling to synchronized slowdown as some fancy buzzword while millions struggle. Wake up. These aren’t just charts. It’s people’s jobs, savings, hopes on the line. Global synchronized slowdown which may potentially lead to a global synchronized recession. https://t.co/dUqKbBlyZo — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) June 11, 2025 $SPY $QQQ Price action feels …
🇺🇸 US nonfarm employment annual growth 1.1% YoY. This slowdown predicted the last 12 recessions! The only exception is 1952. Chart: @jimwpaulsen pic.twitter.com/vEooGZQlkT — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) June 7, 2025 The direct link: https://t.co/Y9z3nJKUHh — Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) June 6, 2025 The main message from today's employment report is that the US labor market continues …
With the equity market surge yesterday, market based pricing of growth expectations has nearly fully recovered the drop this year, and is just a couple point off highs. pic.twitter.com/UeaOxWYTDC — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025 Long dated real yields are at their highs of the post-covid cycle. pic.twitter.com/4D4xVU4WhS — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, …
US executives are getting more concerned about the economy: The share of S&P 500 companies mentioning “recession” during their Q1 2025 earnings calls spiked to 23%, the highest since 2022. This percentage has surpassed levels recorded in all years between 2008 and 2020, except for 2010. Additionally, 62% of US CEOs expect either a slowdown …
Trade wars aren’t the real threat, South Korea’s collapse signals global disaster. While everyone's still blaming trade wars for the global slowdown… The truth is far more dangerous. South Korea — one of the world's largest economies — was already collapsing before the first tariffs even hit. ✅ GDP negative for a full year ✅ …
BREAKING: US financial conditions are now their tightest since the 2020 pandemic, per ZeroHedge. Financial conditions are even tighter than during one of the most rapid Fed hike cycles of all time, in 2022. Conditions have tightened rapidly as stocks have pulled back, while… pic.twitter.com/d53KqrwU4D — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 14, 2025 Is this …
Bank of America recommends to sell the rip 🍀 — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 11, 2025 BLACKROCK CEO LARRY FINK SAYS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MUCH GREATER EMBEDDED INFLATION IN THIS COUNTRY – CNBC — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) April 11, 2025 Inflation expectations remain well anchored… lol pic.twitter.com/P5obSDFctd — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) April 11, …
4/ Trump even stated he wouldn’t rule out a recession in 2025 That added fuel to the sell-off as investors reassess US economic growth Especially under a president who is less focused on short-term economic prosperity pic.twitter.com/M3lDTxZm1Y — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) March 22, 2025 6/ Google Trends data shows searches for "recession" have spiked to …
I asked @grok to categorize your sentiments over the last 5 weeks. So should we expect @menlobear to be on the same page this week? pic.twitter.com/PGUzrv5K4N — Michael Wray (@MichaelWrayJr) March 21, 2025 Recession indicators — Trading 4or Life (@trading4orlife) March 21, 2025
January saw a sharp pullback in consumer spending, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth, according to a Commerce Department report released Friday. Retail sales dropped 0.9% for the month, following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December.. Much worse than the expected 0.2% dip. These figures are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, which …
History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes. Trump is being handed a ticking time bomb… pic.twitter.com/yeRbdseDTy — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) November 13, 2024 My best guess is Trump is going to be forced to slow things down by the bond market. See Bill Clinton in 1992 if you wanna see the power of …
September @KansasCityFed Manufacturing Index down to -8 vs. -5 est. & -3 prior … new orders slipped to -14 (-12 prior); workweek declined to -15 (-10 prior); production fell to -18 (+6 prior) … employment fell to -11 (-7 prior), taking out improvement in August pic.twitter.com/x0q2QUV1Y3 — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 26, 2024 "There …
by Michael Large businesses are declaring bankruptcy at a staggering rate, and yet we are being told over and over again that the economy is just fine. Needless to say, most of the country isn’t buying it. Survey after survey has shown that most Americans believe that the economy is on the wrong track. But those that …
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2023041pap.pdf