Yikes. ADP employment report shows -32,000 jobs lost in November.
Most industries were doing layoffs. The only ones still are hiring are hospitality and healthcare.
But look at employment by firm size. There's a K-shaped economy among firms, too. Larger companies are still… pic.twitter.com/CsMQ4UAAyZ
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 3, 2025
On US macroeconomic data: ADP payrolls miss expectations
The ADP report for November shows the largest monthly job losses (32,000) since early 2023, undershooting the consensus forecast.
In terms of sectors, the job losses were evenly distributed between the goods and services…— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 3, 2025
The latest ADP numbers for November paint a much weaker picture of the labor market than expected. Private employers cut 32,000 jobs, which is a big swing from October’s revised gain of 47,000 and way below the forecast of +40,000.The biggest pressure seems to be on small businesses. Companies with fewer than 50 employees shed a total of 120,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023. Medium and large employers actually added workers, with bigger firms showing a net gain of 90,000.Hiring was mixed across sectors. Education and health services added 33,000 jobs, and leisure/hospitality added 13,000. But those gains were offset by declines in professional/business services (-26,000), information (-20,000), manufacturing (-18,000), and financial and construction (-9,000 each). Wage growth is also cooling, with job-stayers seeing a 4.4% YoY pay increase a slight slowdown from October. This report lands right before the Fed meeting on Dec 9–10. Markets are pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another 25 bps rate cut, but Fed officials remain split: some argue easing is needed to prevent further labor weakness, while others worry cuts could push inflation the wrong way. The BLS nonfarm payrolls data, delayed to Dec 16, will be the next key datapoint.