Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Iran’s Ambassador to Russia warns the U.S. against a ground invasion: “If someone invades our land and thinks they can easily take Iran, they are mistaken. American soldiers will suffer a great calamity. I don’t know if they will be able to remove the bodies.” This is the bluntest threat Iran has made in the …
Iran’s coup de grace against USAF electronic warfare I want to correct my report about 2 AWACS planes being destroyed. It was actually 1 AWACS E-3, but the picture actually gets worse for the US. In addition to the E-3, two EC-130Hs were damaged beyond repair. These jets are top tier SEAD assets, vital to suppressing …
*TREASURY 30-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.986%, HIGHEST SINCE SEPTEMBER — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 27, 2026 The perfect storm.#US national debt over $39 trillion and kicking. #WTI scratching $100 per barrel #NYSE with massive losses#OOTT pic.twitter.com/z3m18jaWon — Einstein Millan Arcia (@EinsteinMillan) March 27, 2026 TRUMP: CUBA IS NEXT — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 27, 2026 TEN …
Three years after ChatGPT, AI is everywhere, except in macroeconomic data. If AI’s value is in productivity enhancement, it's still not showing up in the numbers. AI = LOTS OF HYPE. pic.twitter.com/x96Abr0tD7 — Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) February 15, 2026 AI job predictions that were supposed to happen by now according to “experts” – 85 million …
by confoundedinterest17 Yikes! The ratio of US Home Prices to US Median Household Income is now higher than the ratio during the catestrophic housing bubble during the latter half of the 2000s. Here is a chart of home prices and median household incone, The labor market is truly screwed-up. The December jobs report reveals that …
As concerns grow over AI surpassing human abilities within two to three years. Polly Dunbar explores whether universal basic income could be the solution in a world without traditional jobs Every week, £282 appears in Elinor O’Donovan’s bank account. The 27-year-old is a multidisciplinary artist who sculpts and makes films and installations, but the money …
“Global money is moving back toward safety and stability, and Switzerland is one of the cleanest places for that to show up. When investors start worrying about growth holding up, inflation staying weak, or political risk rising elsewhere, they’re willing to accept very low or even negative yields in exchange for certainty. In that sense, …
2026 just started and China already dropped a financial bomb 💣 Beijing quietly EXTENDED a policy letting banks roll over 3.8 TRILLION yuan of bad personal loans. Translation: the debts are so bad they can’t be cleaned up. Banks are dumping credit-card defaults at 10–20¢ on the dollar, hiding losses, and repackaging the trash into …
It's plausible deniability through pretend stupidity. There's no way someone that smart about money didn't know that the covid bank bailout was going to cause rampant inflation. pic.twitter.com/ObOqknbTns — Ilgephelfis 🐸🤡👽🎻🎶 (@ilgephelfis) January 12, 2026 That Powell is forced to defend himself and the Fed from Trumpian intervention in this way is why foreign institutions …
They’re LYING to you, rate cuts are actually BAD… Well, in the short term they are. The biggest crashes in history didn’t happen before the Fed pivot. They happened after it. 1970s? Fed cuts → stocks nuked. 2000 dot-com? Fed cuts → -51%. 2008? Fed cuts → -58%. Even the early 2020s saw the same …
🔴HOLY COW: Japan’s regional banks’ unrealized losses on their domestic bond holdings hit a RECORD -¥3.3 trillion in Fiscal Q2 2025, ending September 30. This marks a ¥500 billion surge over Q1. As Japan’s government bond yields rise their value drops, and as a result, paper… pic.twitter.com/aJWWRcUCOo — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December 5, 2025 …
$208 million wiped out: Yieldstreet investors rack up more losses as firm rebrands to Willow Wealth As Yieldstreet tries to distance itself from a rocky past with a new name and ad campaign, its customers are dealing with a present reality that is increasingly dire. The private markets investing startup, freshly rebranded as Willow Wealth, …
HSBC has said that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030, per FT: pic.twitter.com/KQrsGIqFnK — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 4, 2025 “OpenAI may continue to attract significant funding and could ultimately develop products that…revolutionize the world. But at present, no start-up in history has operated with expected losses on …
Yikes. ADP employment report shows -32,000 jobs lost in November. Most industries were doing layoffs. The only ones still are hiring are hospitality and healthcare. But look at employment by firm size. There's a K-shaped economy among firms, too. Larger companies are still… pic.twitter.com/CsMQ4UAAyZ — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 3, 2025 On US macroeconomic data: …
Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday. Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, …
Overall, unemployment is rising across white-collar roles, and fresh college graduates are facing one of the toughest job markets in years. Even Harvard MBA graduates aren’t exempt.Yet the market continues to sit near all-time highs. https://t.co/HR4KSgoP44 — optionGeek (@StockShark16) November 25, 2025 Today’s rally has all the hallmarks of a bearish setup. As I mentioned …
Trump’s second term has turned his family’s crypto adventure into something far more dramatic than a simple market wobble. What started as a bold push into digital assets is now colliding with a trillion-dollar crypto drawdown, pulling the family’s net worth from about $7.7 billion in early September to roughly $6.7 billion. A Trump-branded memecoin …
Crypto is primarily a speculative risk asset. Do not conflate the two together. This isn’t a crash, investors are taking profit so therefore it is an overdue correction. — J-Red aboi da kid (@Unpopularrtruth) November 20, 2025 JUST IN: Tom Lee’s Bitmine is sitting on $3.5 BILLION in unrealized losses on $ETH. And we haven't …
Canadians are broke and food prices are beyond control, its worse than USA in Canada. and Canadian main stream media blaming on Trump that because of him people not going to USA and in the news showing a few handpicked rich person and their interviews.
The collapse and bankruptcy of another private credit supported firm has generated significant losses this week. But as I pointed out last week with the shuttered UBS sponsored hedge funds, it isn’t necessarily the amount of money being burned. It’s what each of these cockroaches reveals, and how they add to the growing mistrust about …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal government is still shut down, so we have to rely on ADP for jobs numbers. The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the …
JUST IN: Michael Burry says that Meta $META and Oracle $ORCL are hiding billions in losses and overstating earnings by over 20%. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance J.P. Morgan calls out AI spend, says $650 billion in annual revenue required to deliver mere 10% return on AI buildout — equivalent to $35 payment from every iPhone user, or …
Fannie Mae is set to drop its 620 credit score minimum this month. On the surface level, this is huge, renters with good payment history, young people with thin files, anyone locked out by arbitrary score floors suddenly has a shot at conventional financing. Also, first time buyers are collapsing so Fannie Mae desperately needed …
The downturn always shows up in households before it shows up in the official numbers. Various sources, including Goldman Sachs Research, suggest that roughly 50K jobs were lost in the most recent payroll data — the largest decline in nearly five years. With official payroll figures delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, the true …
Big things have small beginnings. https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1981673722982674914 https://x.com/MrJJB/status/1981703730778239330 Key insight: Two more regional banks disclosed credit losses related to the bankruptcy of First Brands, the U.S. auto parts maker that filed for bankruptcy amid allegations that it engaged in fraud. What’s at stake: The list of large and regional banks with exposures to First Brands continues …
Latest OpenAI numbers from the FT: 800m users, 5% paying (40m). $13bn in ARR. Implies a $325 annual ARPU, or $27/month per paying user. 70% of rev from subscriptions, rest is API. $8bn loss in H1, prob $20bn run rate loss now? So basically spending $3 for each $1 in revenue. Latest OpenAI numbers from …
$NVDA owns stakes in: OpenAI Arm Intel Databricks CoreWeave xAI Nebius Hugging Face Perplexity Scale AI WeRide Lambda Labs Together AI Applied Digital World Labs Quantinuum TerraPower Runway ML Synthesia Hippocratic AI Abridge PassiveLogic Carbon Robotics Unstructured Recursion Pharmaceuticals + dozens of others. Jensen Huang is the literal Godfather of AI. NVIDIA is the best …
The American workforce is wobbling on the edge of a precipice yet Washington’s bickering shows no signs of slowing. In September the country lost 32,000 jobs a number that is only the visible tip of a larger unraveling. The figures are not just statistics they are people struggling to pay rent put food on the …
On today’s episode of CNBC Crypto World, eToro introduces staking for U.S. customers, who can now earn rewards for crypto assets, including Cardano’s ADA token, ether, and Solana’s SOL token. Plus, the Blockchain Association sends a letter to lawmakers reaffirming the support of the digital assets industry for the GENIUS Act, which is now law …
If the bond vigilantes force the Fed to hike interest rates to attract investment in U.S. T-bills, that could be the tipping point for banks that are teetering on the edge. Unless a liquidity crisis forces them to liquidate assets and turn unrealized losses into realized losses. h/t Boo_Randy_II