The downturn always shows up in households before it shows up in the official numbers.
Various sources, including Goldman Sachs Research, suggest that roughly 50K jobs were lost in the most recent payroll data — the largest decline in nearly five years. With official payroll figures delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, the true state of the economy may…
— optionGeek (@StockShark16) November 11, 2025
GOLDMAN SACHS: U.S. LIKELY LOST 50,000 JOBS IN OCTOBER
U.S. nonfarm payrolls likely shrunk by 50,000 roles in October, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
The calculation incorporates the bank’s job-growth tracker, which slowed to 50,000 new jobs in October from 85,000 in September, and the government’s deferred-resignation program, which will likely cut payrolls by about 100,000 positions.
I truly do not think the average American realizes how bad it’s going to get over the next few months.
— Tony Posnanski (@tonyposnanski) November 10, 2025
BREAKING: 180 month auto loans are now being offered in the U.S. in an attempt to lower monthly car payments.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 11, 2025
BREAKING: Searches for “second job” reach a new all-time high
34% chance of a recession by 2026 pic.twitter.com/Oyen8zGJ3T
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 11, 2025
so…how are we feeling about this bifurcated economy argument that we’ve all heard over the past year?
stocks up, asset holders can continue to spend and subsidize the economy
ai capex up, the hyperscalers continue to keep the ai trade alive
on the other end…
low end consumer spending down, as seen via major consumer brands like $CMG and $LULU getting hit
subprime auto defaults hitting record highs, credit card debt continuing to climb at an aggressive pace
grocery / electricity prices continue to climb…ironically the ai capex trade is what could be causing electricity to be going up
do we think the Fed cutting rates can fix this? are layoffs only going to intensify because of AI which would be deflationary but hurt earnings?
many questions as we prepare for next year…curious to hear an anecdotal experiences on how folks are thinking of the broader economy
so…how are we feeling about this bifurcated economy argument that we’ve all heard over the past year?
stocks up, asset holders can continue to spend and subsidize the economy
ai capex up, the hyperscalers continue to keep the ai trade alive
on the other end…
low end…
— amit (@amitisinvesting) November 10, 2025