Overall, unemployment is rising across white-collar roles, and fresh college graduates are facing one of the toughest job markets in years. Even Harvard MBA graduates aren’t exempt.
Yet the market continues to sit near all-time highs. https://t.co/HR4KSgoP44— optionGeek (@StockShark16) November 25, 2025
Today’s rally has all the hallmarks of a bearish setup. As I mentioned earlier, the week opened firm but is likely to fade by Friday’s close.
This time, the prolonged government shutdown has done irreparable damage to the credibility of key economic reports. The trust is gone. Most major investment banks and top hedge funds are now relying on private firms for economic data. That means inconsistency, uneven methodologies, and plenty of confusion and disagreement across the industry.
To make things worse, Michael Burry is putting out a series of compelling research notes suggesting we could be facing a 2008-style crisis in Q1 2026.
Today’s rally has all the hallmarks of a bearish setup. As I mentioned earlier, the week opened firm but is likely to fade by Friday’s close.
This time, the prolonged government shutdown has done irreparable damage to the credibility of key economic reports. The trust is gone.… https://t.co/gM8hCKTITu
— optionGeek (@StockShark16) November 25, 2025
The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday.
Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago.
With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative data like ADP’s has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture.
Government agencies such as the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but critical reports such as the monthly nonfarm payrolls count won’t come out until December.