Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
McDonald’s CEO is catching heat for openly worrying about higher gas prices hurting their business while regular people are already getting crushed at the pump and on grocery bills. Worried about fuel costs:$MCD CEO: "Obviously, higher gas prices…are not going to be helpful, particularly for lower income consumers who are already, I think, under pressure" …
Apple is pulling a classic “stealth hike” to protect their 48% margins, and the market is just starting to wake up to the trick. Yesterday’s guidance of 14-17% revenue growth looked like a miracle given the 9% consensus, but the math didn’t add up until the Mac Mini update dropped. By killing off the $599 …
Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes. This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities). The last major signal was at …
Keep acting like the consumer is still strong and spending like nothing’s changed… and yeah, it’s going to look fine until it suddenly isn’t. Inflation still hot and people already stretched, that’s the kind of setup where things can roll over, but timing is always the tricky part. U.S. inflation picture is the worst in …
Ken Griffin of Citadel has said there is an energy price shock occurring across the world. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 20, 2026 AI BOOM WON’T AUTOMATICALLY MEAN RATE CUTS Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh argues an AI-driven productivity surge could allow lower interest rates without stoking inflation. Economist Ed Yardeni disagrees. While also bullish on …
WTI hit a weekend high, now 6% higher than Friday's close pic.twitter.com/fMWazCZo7Z — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) April 19, 2026 Sunday is coming to an end. But Trump, according to Axios, is expected to have an Iran deal within a day or two. We are already at that point. So you can be sure that …
Everyone is still talking about oil pricesThat’s already outdated–This is no longer a price shock–It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock — Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026 ~20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.That flow is now constrained — by Iran AND USAnd it’s not just oil—it’s …
Iran, US still in touch after failed talks in Islamabad – CBS Engagement between Tehran and Washington has continued since the failure of the first round of Islamabad talks over the weekend, CBS News reported on Monday citing officials. There is “forward motion on trying to get to an agreement,” the report added citing one …
We gradually transitioned from a democratic welfare state to full-on race communism between the 1960s and today for two reasons: 1. The beneficiaries of our race laws went from 10 percent of the population to a majority in places like NYC and soon a majority nationally. 2. We… https://t.co/o90suw73Us — Helen Andrews (@herandrews) April 8, …
US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in February, significantly missing the 0.5% decline expectation as transportation demand craters. The manufacturing floor is falling out while the Fed stays hawkish. This is the “hard landing” signal the bulls are desperately trying to ignore. Bank of America warns of a 0.9% March CPI jump driven by a …
THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE 🚨 🚨NOBODY UNDERSTANDS WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨 🚨 People always talk about Iranian oil in terms of barrels, but rarely about what’s actually inside them. That’s the key difference—and the reason Western refineries have quietly relied on back-channel networks through places like Dubai for years to keep getting it, …
Americans aren’t getting laid off. And they’re not quitting. They’re simply just not getting hired, and the numbers haven’t been this bad since the pandemic closed the economy by force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday the hiring rate fell to 3.1% in February, with just 4.8 million hires, the lowest since April …
via notayesmanseconomics Over the past 24 hours the European Central Bank has received a couple of pieces of rather unwelcome data.We can start with what is its modus operandi. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.5% in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European …
Pickleball paddle producer Devi Wei has a message for U.S. shoppers. “Americans will have to pay more,” the Chinese businessman told CNBC at a Beijing trade show last week at the China International Exhibition Center. Because of the recent swings in oil prices resulting from the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, …
BREAKING: Europe spent four years escaping Russian gas. It cut dependence from 40 percent to under 10 percent. It built LNG terminals. It signed long-term contracts with Qatar. It celebrated energy independence. Then America bombed Iran. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar declared force majeure. And European gas prices nearly doubled in a month. …
@AOC and @SenSchumer need to own their responsibility for higher rates in NYC. pic.twitter.com/Gf7JcdE1Q2 — Jason Sesler (@jmsesler) March 26, 2026 This map makes it clear who is responsible pic.twitter.com/Jl4ed59U7o — RJ Altmann (@rjaltmann1) March 26, 2026 States are in control, not the federal gov't. pic.twitter.com/reFbCEGQtw — Amy Lou (@JustPlaying2Win) March 26, 2026
Rising oil prices won't cause higher inflation. More expensive oil means Americans will have less money to spend on other things. Reduced spending will cause a recession, which will result in larger budget deficits, rate cuts, and QE. That's what will cause higher inflation. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 23, 2026 They are shorting crude …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
View post on imgur.com Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stoping an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and …
by confoundedinterest17 Global uncertainty hits an ALL-TIME HIGH. Higher than Covid, the 2008 financial crisis, and the dot-com crash COMBINED. You know what that means!
via peterplanner The World’s Most Chaotic Price Tag: Britain’s Inflation Meets a Middle East Meltdown Just when British households were hoping for a quiet year of “only mildly painful” grocery bills, the universe said no. Food prices are edging upward again, with Kantar reporting a renewed rise in grocery inflation after months of decline, and …
The jump in oil prices could lead to a jump in prices as soon as Monday, but it won’t be a spike, an analyst said The price of oil surged Sunday after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed its supreme leader. U.S. crude oil initially soared more than 10%, while Brent, the international …
When one looks inside the electricity system, the experience is less like analyzing an immense machine than being fed into one, resembling the immortal scene in “Modern Times” where Charlie Chaplin’s factory worker is swallowed by the equipment he’s working on. The American electricity market is not guided by an “invisible hand” of supply and …
Los Angeles with clean air due to CA refinery regulations. pic.twitter.com/3ADx3MruYL — California Sun (@Californiada9pr) February 25, 2026 California drivers are paying $4.63 a gallon. That is 23 cents more than Hawaii and $1.65 above Maryland. AAA and GasBuddy confirm the numbers. State energy rules are clearly inflating prices far beyond other blue states. This …
via notayesmanseconomics Japan finds itself in a situation where it keeps making the economic news. Much of this is the result of the central planning it has employed over the years. I realise that for new readers this may be a bit of a shock, but the country that looks at times an example of …
*STOCK FUTURES EDGE HIGHER AHEAD OF NVIDIA $NVDA EARNINGS pic.twitter.com/0Sg2RCVX5I — Investing.com (@Investingcom) February 25, 2026 #Stock futures US, edging higher. Notice the #VIX been hovering around the 20 level for quite some time. pic.twitter.com/N3IKimTk51 — Bjorn (@TrademanFX) February 25, 2026 We have a very busy after hours of earnings incoming … here are some …
Hence the spending and deficits are congress’s albatross, not POTUS.They own them and they’ll continue to be outrageous from administration to administration because no one in congress will ever force spending cuts or even reasonable spending control. — Dave (@RVA_dave) February 20, 2026
#Gold long-term structure suggests much higher levels ahead. pic.twitter.com/AXOuccKD7f — Gold Predictors (@GoldPredictors) February 16, 2026 As illustrated in these MacroMicro charts, China’s holdings of US Treasuries have continued to fall.Given the steady issuance of new securities by the US government, China’s share of total UST holdings has dropped even more — to 7%, a …
by confoundedinterest17 Yikes! The ratio of US Home Prices to US Median Household Income is now higher than the ratio during the catestrophic housing bubble during the latter half of the 2000s. Here is a chart of home prices and median household incone, The labor market is truly screwed-up. The December jobs report reveals that …
Someone getting fired for forgetting to cook the data. https://t.co/kL4Co6W9Su — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) January 30, 2026 (Kitco New) – Gold continues to see significant selling pressure and could face further headwinds as inflation in the U.S. remains persistent, with producer prices rising more than expected last month. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% …