Ken Griffin of Citadel has said there is an energy price shock occurring across the world. Kevin Warsh says AI boom could justify lower rates while Ed Yardeni warns of higher neutral rate risk

Internal Fed discussions and the latest projections show policymakers remain cautious about rate cuts in 2026 due to the energy price shock from the Iran conflict, with gasoline prices now averaging around $4.09 per gallon nationally.

The federal funds rate sits steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range. At the March meeting, the median “dot plot” projection still pointed to one 25-basis-point cut by the end of 2026, the same as in December 2025, though seven of 19 participants saw no cuts at all this year. Inflation forecasts rose, with median PCE for 2026 revised up to 2.7%.

The energy spike from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up headline inflation pressures, and officials have flagged risks that prolonged high oil prices could keep inflation elevated longer than expected.

Some participants have grown more open to the possibility of rate hikes if inflation does not moderate, while others still see room for modest easing if growth slows and the ceasefire holds.

Sorry but this is fucking crazy
byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance