Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The prospect of a return to Volcker-era economics is no longer a fringe theory. As the 10 year Treasury yield continues its march upward, a growing chorus of macro analysts is warning that the current inflationary spiral is not a temporary spike but a systemic repricing. The argument for interest rates hitting 14% hinges on …
Bull Theory @BullTheoryio 🚨The cheapest money in the world just got more expensive. The entire global financial system borrowed it. Japan’s 10-year bond yield just hit 2.564%, for the first time this century. Japan is one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds in the world. As Japanese yields rise and a BOJ rate …
The intensifying bond market crisis is the final warning that the Federal Reserve has learned absolutely nothing from the disaster of 2022. We are watching Treasury yields surge at the same time that oil is sitting above $100 a barrel which is a recipe for a total currency collapse if the Fed keeps pretending that …
Denmark chart exposes state sponsored rape by welfare heavy immigrants. Somalia, Syria and Afghanistan top both benefits and rape convictions. Open borders flood Nordic streets with high crime low skill migrants. They make up a small share of the population (~8-10%) but are heavily overrepresented among social benefit recipients (often 30-50%+ of certain cash benefits …
Borrowing costs surged again this morning, the 30-year fixed rate hit a new spring high as the bond market reacts to wartime energy spikes… Freddie Mac reports the three-week slide in rates is officially over, the 10-year Treasury yield is dragging home ownership out of reach for thousands… Active listings have finally breached the 1-million …
ISM manufacturing prices paid index spiked to 84.6 points in April, a 4-year high. Over the last 3 months, prices paid have SKYROCKETED over 20 points, marking one of the biggest spikes in history. Meanwhile, the employment index dropped to 46.4 points, the lowest level in 2026. Employment has now been contracting for 15 months …
Notice, this never lasts. Homes are CURRENTLY priced at 2.75% mortgage rates. https://t.co/Qp5Z1P2x0l — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 2, 2026 We are living through one of the largest artificially inflated real estate bubbles in history. Zero rates. Massive stimulus. Record speculation. Now the unwind begins. pic.twitter.com/GldAUS1HeJ — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) May 3, 2026 Housing supply …
Falling birth rates aren’t a disaster, they’re the best bit of global news in a long timehttps://t.co/mEBocMP0hi — Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) May 1, 2026 In a new Daily Mail op-ed published today, he argues that falling global birth rates are “the best bit of global news in a long time” — not a disaster. He …
FOMC official: Interest rates maintained at 3.5% to 3.75% for third straight time… Powell’s chairmanship expires next month; markets obsess over his “staying power”… Fed Statement: “Inflation remains elevated,” fueled by recent global energy shocks… The Warsh Shadow: Investors look past today’s pause to the May 15 leadership swap…
FOMC Day 2: Fed Chair to keep rates steady at 3.50% in likely final act… Market brace for “The Warsh Pivot” as Kevin Warsh prepares May 15 takeover… Inflation ghost: High yields and $111 oil kill hope for a 2026 rate cut… Internal Fed rift: Dissent grows over “over-correcting” for the AI bubble… Fed expected …
Nothing is a buy until real rates cooperate more pic.twitter.com/Bc6O1lXwZ2 — MacroEngine (@TheMacroEngine) April 28, 2026 The $SPY is not a buy here$NVDA is also not a buy here A lot of Semi’s are not buys here either They are the market and the market is not undervalued right now, nor is it fair valued …
Ken Griffin of Citadel has said there is an energy price shock occurring across the world. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 20, 2026 AI BOOM WON’T AUTOMATICALLY MEAN RATE CUTS Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh argues an AI-driven productivity surge could allow lower interest rates without stoking inflation. Economist Ed Yardeni disagrees. While also bullish on …
@AOC and @SenSchumer need to own their responsibility for higher rates in NYC. pic.twitter.com/Gf7JcdE1Q2 — Jason Sesler (@jmsesler) March 26, 2026 This map makes it clear who is responsible pic.twitter.com/Jl4ed59U7o — RJ Altmann (@rjaltmann1) March 26, 2026 States are in control, not the federal gov't. pic.twitter.com/reFbCEGQtw — Amy Lou (@JustPlaying2Win) March 26, 2026
It’s not just the war that is pushing interest rates up. The debt is unsustainable and we soon won’t be able to service it. It’s irresponsible. https://t.co/WRKQ08YVob — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March 25, 2026 Total U.S. obligations exceed $136,200,000,000,000. FIVE times U.S. annual GDP. "America is facing a fiscal catastrophe. The reckoning, long deferred, is becoming …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Home prices are still too unaffordable. Existing home sales have had no traction since declining to this level in October of 2022. Mortgage rates peaked at 7.62 percent in October 2023 over two years ago. The National Association or Realtors reports Existing-Home Sales Rise 1.7 Percent in February following a 5.9 …
🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: The US has spent nearly 2 billion dollars on the war in Iran, according to estimates. pic.twitter.com/uKjI7wFMKe — Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) March 3, 2026 🚨BREAKING: JESSE WATTERS TURNS ON TRUMP “Gas prices are gonna jump. Mortgage rates are already ticking up. You're gonna see inflation.” pic.twitter.com/cHygnRCxfm — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) March 2, …
by confoundedinterest17 We are seeing the aftermath of the Federal government’s fiscal response to the Covid outbreak of 2020. Home prices exploded following The Federal government’s spending spree. The end result? US housing is simply unaffordable for millions of households. Not really surprising given the soaring home prices following the Covid Federal spending spree.
by Martin Armstrong Everyone keeps asking if mortgage rates will collapse in 2026 as if the entire real estate market revolves around the Federal Reserve pulling a lever. That is simply not how the system actually functions. Mortgage rates are tied to long-term capital flows and the 10-year yield, not just whatever the Fed does …
$UBS predicts private credit default rates to reach up to 15% in bear case (FT)https://t.co/r7MBvNICG5 — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) February 25, 2026 UBS warns of 15% default rates in private credit — Wall Street is starting to worry. (Bloomberg) — A few weeks ago, analysts at UBS Group AG laid out …
Trump is setting up Kevin Warsh as the fall guy. He needs someone to blame when rates rocket. Bookmark it. https://t.co/aLQLRJxOOn — The Great Martis (@great_martis) February 10, 2026 Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on how the US will ultimately solve its debt problem. They will print their way out of this mess That’s why …
The market is telling the Fed to cut interest rates. Truflation is saying to cut rates. The President is saying to cut rates. And now the next Fed Chairman and the Treasury Secretary are saying to cut rates. What do you think is going to happen? — Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) February 9, 2026 Real …
We’re in “reverse” now. 👇🏼 https://t.co/BoKr3sseXk pic.twitter.com/AHzh49jOwC — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 5, 2026 “Nobody could have seen this coming.” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/r94w0m3Xze — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 5, 2026 Can someone explain to me like I’m 10 years old, how Bitcoin has gone down -$32,000 with NO BOUNCE in 14 days? pic.twitter.com/WRcyBnbfcQ — …
Breaking: Jobless claims 209k vs 205k estimates. 5 year inflation expectations continue to rise Why would you cut interest rates into this? pic.twitter.com/EXBDh5luwZ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 29, 2026
BLOOD IN THE WATER. 🩸 Trump administration just proposed a 0.09% "increase" for 2027 Medicare Advantage rates. In the world of medical inflation, a 0.09% bump isn't a "flat rate", it’s a brutal funding cut. The reaction was instant:$UNH: -9% 📉$HUM: -13% 📉$CVS: -9% 📉 pic.twitter.com/wU1qBIAtfI — Lia Holmgren (@Liathetrader) January 27, 2026 Breaking: Trump Administration proposes keeping steady the rates …
https://twitter.com/julianliu_views/status/2013799482379395116
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called President Donald Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates an “economic disaster.” He suggested the U.S. government should test the cap in two states: Vermont and Massachusetts. Vermont and Massachusetts are the home states of Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, both of whom have advocated for …
🚨🚨BREAKING🚨🚨 Credit card companies have completley ignored and disregarded Trump’s suggestion to lower interest rates. No one respects him! pic.twitter.com/IiGLsXMvKY — The Green Dragon Tavern (@greendragonhq) January 20, 2026 That’s a good thing. Many people are unable to consume and are poor because they can’t manage their budget properly, so a 10% interest rate cap …
Your bank earns 5% on your money, you earn 0.4%, and you can’t fix it. Banks pay you 0.4% interest on your deposits, then take your money & put it at the Fed, which pays them 5% interest on your money. Federal law bars you from cutting out the middleman & depositing your money at …
