Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
For a year, Wall Street’s dominant theme has been the so-called K-shaped economy, in which the well-to-do have powered financial activity despite lower earners’ struggles. This week, the nation’s largest banks reported a broadly disappointing set of quarterly earnings, marking the first stumble after a yearlong spree of rising markets and softening regulations paid off …
The Fed is legally required to ignore presidential pressure on rates. BREAKING: Federal prosecutors have opened an inquiry into Fed Chair Powell on renovations of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters in Washington. Jerome Powell just released his response below: "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting… pic.twitter.com/HaKAPPW2tn — amit (@amitisinvesting) …
🚨 BREAKING: THIS IS HOW 2006 HAPPENS AGAIN Trump orders $200,000,000,000 in mortgage bond buys to lower mortgage rates. If they really start doing it to "lower mortgage rates" That is not fixing housing. That is pumping the bubble. Because the US housing problem is not… https://t.co/Pk1Q2sYtyj pic.twitter.com/MqN9hGAX3Y — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) January 8, 2026 Trump …
If prices will not fall 33%, is slashing mortgage rates the only way out? Needs to happen, rates will come down Grant. If that happens, $TLT rockets!https://t.co/VLyNoxoVgK — Common Sense Investor (CSI) (@commonsenseplay) January 6, 2026
via notayesmanseconomics Hello again and a Happy New Year to you all. That theme links to today’s subject because the research student at the Bank of England morning meeting will have been hanging out the bunting for this, FTSE 100 opens back above 10,000 The FTSE 100 rose 0.4% to 10,008.06, propelled by gains in heavyweight producers. Shell climbed 0.9%, while …
🤝 https://t.co/0Z9zz27SCG — OVcrypto (@OVcrypto) January 4, 2026
People keep calling bonds “safe,” but that’s a straight-up lie. Long bonds in 2021 looked boring and secure, but inflation turned them into a nightmare. “Bonds are a safe-haven asset” is one of the biggest lies in financial markets. Bond performance is heavily dependent on the inflationary environment. – Disinflation -> bonds up– Inflation -> …
Effectiveness of incentives The most promising incentive option is guaranteed cash payments, which meet all our criteria when implemented well. A systematic review of vaccine promotion interventions recommends guaranteed cash payments, with an estimate that they increase uptake of vaccines by 8%.2 A trial in Sweden found guaranteed payments provided by researchers increased COVID-19 vaccination …
Everything is breaking records at the same time and that’s not strength, that’s stress. When stocks, gold, debt, and delinquencies all hit highs together, it means the system is being force fed cheap money. Cutting rates now doesn’t fix the problem, it pours gasoline on it. This rally isn’t confidence, it’s desperation dressed up as …
When CAPEX history meets nosebleed valuations, the only direction for risk is down. “What lower short term rates have done is keep stock prices elevated & valuations stretched. That distortion shows up clearly in the data. The $SPY currently trades near ~25× forward earnings, well above its long-term median closer to ~16×” FULL ANALYSIS BELOW! …
The world is drowning in debt and nobody is sounding the alarm. Over $300 trillion owed globally, more than three times what the planet produces in a year. The U.S. alone carries $38 trillion, Europe’s biggest economies are maxed out, and developing nations are borrowing faster than they have in fifty years. Rates go up …
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she saw no need to change U.S. interest rates for months ahead after the central bank cut borrowing costs at its last three meetings, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Hammack opposed recent rate cuts as she is more worried about elevated inflation than the …
This is the nightmare scenario for Japan. Rates up, yen weaker, and the one lever they pulled just made it worse. Once the 10 year breaks levels like this, control turns into theater. There really is no clean exit left. 🚨 Japanese inflation is now above US inflation for the first time since 1979. pic.twitter.com/pACaUFHHfi …
If the BOJ missteps even a little, yields move fast and nothing stays local anymore. This is one of those quiet moments that only feels boring until it isn’t. Japan's🇯🇵 bond market is displaying consolidating flag patterns across the board , poised to react sharply if the BOJ makes any major policy error. We await. …
A significant number of stillbirths are happening in pregnancies the medical system labels as safe and at a higher rate in the U.S. than previously reported, according to a new study led by researchers at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Mass General Brigham. The study… https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2840578 A Harvard summary https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/stillbirths-in-the-u-s-higher-than-previously-reported-often-occur-with-no-clinical-risk-factors/ h/t A …
Trump is asked where he wants interest rates to be next year. His response: “1% and maybe lower than that.” Trump is effectively asking to put the economy into emergency mode when we aren’t actually in an emergency. By demanding interest rates drop to 1%, he wants to make borrowing money nearly free, which changes …
Michael Burry warns the U.S. might be headed towards full nationalization of the Bond Market 🤯👀😱 pic.twitter.com/Enwbs6ZFnS — Barchart (@Barchart) December 12, 2025 10Y 4.2 Powell is fuming — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 12, 2025 10 year yield right back up to 3 month highs despite the Fed announcing t-bill QE. The bond market is …
President Trump said Friday his choice for the next chair of the Federal Reserve should consult him on setting interest rates. Trump told The Wall Street Journal in an interview he was leaning toward selecting either National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett or former Federal Reserve board of governors member Kevin Warsh for the role. …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1998841788585365948 Fed Chair Powell: Total PCE rises rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8%. These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects… pic.twitter.com/q8MPm5lCA6 — FactPost (@factpostnews) December 10, 2025 …
When the Fed cuts rates while $SPY is trading near all-time highs (within 1%), the market usually falls sharply 2–3 months later. That aligns closely with our model’s prediction of a serious correction beginning in February 2026. Every time rate cuts begin near market peaks, the aftermath has been very bad. Historically, the pattern is …
Economy going to be so good but we gotta keep cutting rates https://t.co/Ah1mWdIOjh — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 5, 2025 Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, argues a wave of new factory construction and reshoring projects is building “massive momentum” for the U.S. economy into next year. He points to dozens of recent factory …
Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS #Employment ADP commentary from Chief Economist Richardson: “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.” Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS#Employment ADP …
by Michael Fertility rates have been rapidly declining all over the globe. If this trend continues, the global population will fall dramatically in the years ahead even if we do not experience major wars, worldwide pandemics, nightmarish famines and historic natural disasters. Of course this is exactly what many among the global elite have been …
Basically cutting rates to 0 by end of next year https://t.co/jy5Cbb8oAU — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 3, 2025 Grok: Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, wants more White House say in picking Federal Reserve regional bank leaders. He’d require them to have lived in their area for 3+ years and might veto nominees who don’t. …
‼️Global central bank rate cuts are running ABOVE the Great Financial Crisis pace: World central banks have cut rates 316 times over the last 2 years, the most THIS CENTURY. Following the Financial Crisis response, they cut 313 times in 2 years. 👇https://t.co/hNOlF08Opy — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 29, 2025 In the two years …
The system is quietly trapping everyone while pretending nothing’s wrong. According to the BLM's most recent numbers, private employers are reporting 13,500 job cuts a WEEK. These are PRIVATE EMPLOYERS. NOT GOVERNMENT JOBS. The BLM reports we are seeing the worst job numbers since 2008. If you can HONESTLY justify that, you're a lot of …
Comparison: 2020 (COVID crash): ~610 large bankruptcies. 2021: ~400. 2022: ~450. 2023: ~500. 2025 YTD: 655 already. (Reuters) -Large U.S. corporate bankruptcies are on pace to hit their highest level in 15 years, S&P Global data showed on Thursday, underscoring mounting stress across corporate America at a sensitive time for public market investors. Total bankruptcy …
Credit card companies just handed out $1.5 trillion in new credit limits since 2020 but Americans only actually borrowed an extra $430 billion. That gap $4.1 trillion in unused credit tells you everything you need to know about what banks are doing right now. Imagine your bank raises your credit limit from $5,000 to $8,000 …
“Here’s what’s going on with the Fed and Wall Street right now and it’s kinda wild when you understand the full picture (save this). The Fed created something called the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) back in 2021 as basically an emergency lending window for banks and dealers. Think of it like this, banks need cash …
See a live map from Flightaware of flight cancellation rates as more than 1,700 flights have been canceled across the U.S. on Monday as the FAA limits capacity at 40 major U.S. airports. https://abcnews.go.com/US/1500-flights-canceled-us-monday-travel-disruptions-continue/story?id=127370393 Air travelers should expect worsening cancellations and delays this week even if the government shutdown ends, as the Federal Aviation Administration …