Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 Redfin’s Housing Turnover Report, Q1–Q3 2025 Just 2.8 homes out of every 1,000 changed owners in the first nine months of 2025—the lowest turnover rate in at least three decades. This marks a 38% plunge from the 2021 frenzy, when 44 per 1,000 homes sold, and is 44% below the pre-pandemic 2019 pace of 40 …
🚨 U.S. ANNOUNCES CHANGES IN RECIPROCAL TARIFF RATES WITH CHINA AFTER AGREEMENT -FEDERAL REGISTER — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 6, 2025 Based on the Federal Register and White House announcements, here are the key changes in US-China reciprocal tariff rates from the recent agreement: – US reduces tariffs on Chinese imports (fentanyl-related) by 10 percentage …
It’s not just $CMG dropping. Even fast food is dropping Wendy’s has been smashed and they probably have the best food of them all. It all comes back to the consumer pic.twitter.com/wCURBOAS19 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 1, 2025 🚨MORGAN STANLEY: THE BULL MARKET IS ABOUT TO END. Andrew Slimmon says we’re in the late …
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-banks-tap-fed-repo-facility-overnight-rates-climb-signaling-funding-strain-2025-10-15/ US repo rates hit high of 4.36% on Wednesday Liquidity is declining, should be monitored, analyst says US Treasury settlements are one factor for funding rate rise NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) – U.S. banks borrowed $6.5 billion from the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on Wednesday, central bank data showed, and repurchase …
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is nearing a point where it will stop reducing the size of its bond holdings, but gave no long-run indication of where interest rates are heading. Though balance sheet questions are in the weeds for monetary policy, they matter to financial markets. Powell generally stuck to …
Another major central bank panicked today into a 50 bps rate cut, just as markets have been predicting. Not only that, officials at that bank said they’re ready for more as ultra-low rates are back within reach already. The Pringles can is far from empty even though central banks around the world would like you …
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-propose-doubling-tariff-rate-092936456.html The European Union plans to hike tariffs on its steel imports to 50%, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg. The move will align the bloc’s rate with the US, which has sought to push back against overcapacity from China. The EU currently has a temporary mechanism in place to safeguard its steel …
by confoundedinterest17 In addition to soaring sellers to buyers ratio in US housing markets, we now have surging mortgage default risk (CDR) after mortgage rate resets. Did Powell and The Fed (aka, Jay Powell and the Blackhearts) wait too long to cut rates? Here is the soaring ratio of home sellers to buyers. OOOGG!!!
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The battle is over inflation vs jobs, two vastly different opinions. Fed governor Stephen Miran was a senior White House adviser until his confirmation to the central bank board on September 15. Miran replaced Adriana Kugler as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors when she unexpectedly …
via TopFinanceTakes Chart’s showing QQQ sitting around 45-50 net options sentiment lately -neither hugely bullish nor bearish. Feels like the market’s a little unsure where to lean right now. Price is making all-time highs, but option flow hasn’t fully caught up. Kind of a “waiting for the next spark” vibe. Chart: Prospero.ai A few of the …
Japan is entering a phase of policy schizophrenia, balance sheet tightening without rate hikes. Markets will punish that contradiction. Expect higher yields, volatility in the yen, and stress in equity markets until the BOJ capitulates. pic.twitter.com/AvNHiU0hmh — Bobbidazzler (@DazzlerBob) September 19, 2025 When bond yields rise despite central bank rate cuts, it often signals market …
You can’t cut rates when you have inflation. David Tepper says Fed could cut a few more times, but easing too much risks entering ‘danger territory’ Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said the Federal Reserve could cut rates a bit more, but then risks more inflation and other dangers to the economy and markets if …
Holy. Shit. Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion. The US economy is running HOT. pic.twitter.com/aDQHxtq4iY — Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 16, 2025 For the rate of inflation to be dropping (LOL Trump) or even flat during this time frame tells you that consumption has completely evaporated. It …
Most buyers since COVID couldn’t afford the house just like 2008. Especially with mortgage rates where they are. https://t.co/I9OLqLUANX — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 16, 2025 It would take a heart of stone to read about these F*cked Borrowers who can't sell their overpriced houses, & not laugh byu/Boo_Randy_II inHouseBuyers Markets don't seem to have …
Sadly, most people don’t understand money, specifically fiat currency. Things become more expensive because the currency purchasing them becomes less valuable. It will be a colossal mistake if the Fed cuts rates.Bonds will erode to oblivion. pic.twitter.com/Hdwdm4TUTj — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 15, 2025 Things are BAD.1. GDP is "up" on stubborn inflation, which …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The CPI was higher than expected in August, but the Fed will do what it wants to do. The CPI Rose 0.4 Percent in July The BLS reports the CPI Rose 0.4 Percent in July, higher than the Bloomberg Econoday consensus of 0.3 percent. The BLS reports to a single …
Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing. …
They can keep the whole thing afloat as long as they’d like The release valve is just the currency. Inflation is running at 3%-5% …and there's a 100% probability that the Fed cuts at least 25bps in ten days As if that wasn't bad enough, there's a 11% probability they do a jumbo 50bps cut …
The idea that the U.S. housing market is finally responding to buyers is a lie engineered to mislead. Beneath small price shifts and stagnant mortgage rates, the system is still structured to preserve inflated valuations, restrict liquidity, and trap both homeowners and prospective buyers. Reports that suggest softening prices or easing rates are not signs …
Over 300,000 jobs vanished from the books in four months, the labor market was never strong. The Fed is late: Based on recent data, President Trump's calls for rate cuts beginning ~5 months ago were correct. And, it's even more evident that this is the case after over -300,000 jobs were revised out of 4 …
Basically saying that perp traders can now play Russian Roulette with two bullets in the revolver instead of just one. — Studious Stoic (@StudiousStoic) September 4, 2025
via notayesmanseconomics This morning the focus is back on the Bank of England and we cam start with something which will match the new autumnal mood for the weather at least for the research student presenting the morning meeting. “August saw a slight softening in the rate of annual house price growth to 2.1%, from …
Yup. Basically pic.twitter.com/mKedOV6P44 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 31, 2025 The Federal Reserve is facing pressure on two fronts as inflation picks up and the labor market shows signs of slipping. Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to explain why this puts the central bank in a difficult policy spot heading into …
Trump has bought at least $103.7 million in bonds while in office, including debt from Meta, Qualcomm, Home Depot, and T-Mobile, according to a White House disclosure dated August 12, 2025: “Trump reported no sales.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/trump-embarks-on-104-million-bond-buying-spree-while-in-office/ar-AA1KPNzK 👀 pic.twitter.com/lQtyLDsbQ3 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) August 20, 2025 Unlike every modern president before him, Trump didn’t divest …
Rate cuts: like putting a band-aid on a sinking ship. For those begging for rate cuts, look back at 2001 and 2008. The Fed started cutting right before unemployment spiked. The pivot wasn’t a win, it was the signal that the real damage was about to hit. If the economy was healthy and booming, there …
Starter homes should not cost $400,000. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance
by confoundedinterest17 The US housing market is a changeling, going from a mega glut during the financial crisis to a tight market, then back to a glut … again. In fact, there are 511,000 new homes for sales in the US, the highest inventory since the financial crisis. Combine all-time high home prices with RELATIVELY …
If you were sitting in Powell’s chair right now, the choices are all bad. Rate cuts with inflation heating back up would be reckless, but blindly hiking or extending QT into a slowing economy risks detonating credit markets. The Fed is boxed in because both sides of the balance sheet are broken: short-term liquidity is …
Prediction: Q2 was the best GDP print we see this year. We spent that quarter front loading inventory ahead of the tariffs. We will see what the tariffed economy really looks like in the second half of the year. Expecting a slowdown. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 13, 2025 what if the Fed cuts rates …
Cutting interest rates amidst the biggest asset bubble in history is the definition of madness — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) August 12, 2025 1. Stocks: all-time high2. Home Prices: all-time high3. Bitcoin: all-time high4. Gold: all-time high5. Money Supply: all-time high6. National Debt: all-time high7. CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, …