If the BOJ missteps even a little, yields move fast and nothing stays local anymore. This is one of those quiet moments that only feels boring until it isn’t.
Japan's🇯🇵 bond market is displaying consolidating flag patterns across the board , poised to react sharply if the BOJ makes any major policy error.
We await. pic.twitter.com/6HTeZAFigd
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 19, 2025
Would be a shame if BoJ and Opex ruined the Santa rally 👀
— Zoomer 🧢 (@zoomyzoomm) December 18, 2025
Japan’s November inflation numbers are out:
The ex fresh food measure held steady at 3% for the second consecutive month. With that, a 25bps hike to 0.75% in a few hours is practically a "done deal.”#japan #economy #inflation #markets pic.twitter.com/pkto2NRrPD— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 19, 2025
Japan’s central bank on Friday raised its policy rate to a three-decade high, marching ahead with its policy normalization, as inflation has stayed above its target levels for nearly four years now.
The Bank of Japan raised benchmark rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, their highest level since 1995, and in line with expectations of economists polled by Reuters.
Despite the move, the BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity.
Japan embarked on policy normalization last year, abandoning the world’s only negative interest rate regime that had been in place since 2016. Since then, the BOJ has consistently maintained its stance on gradually lifting rates, stating that its goal was to see a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and prices.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/bank-of-japan-boj-rate-cpi-inflation-takaichi-ueda.html
Tomorrow is largest rebalancing of the SP500 all year, lots of crazy price action will occur. For the Russell it's also a big rebalance – We have BOJ rate decision tonight at 3:00am EST as well$SPY $QQQ
— Traveller (@A_Najumi) December 18, 2025
The “Santa Claus Rally” window for the S&P 500 (last 5 trading days of the year plus the first 5 of the new year) has been positive 19 of the last 25 years, about a 76% hit rate, with an average return around 0.8%.
The last two readings on this chart were negative, and over 56… pic.twitter.com/fORXNAV24f
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) December 18, 2025