Markets are hitting all time highs even as the recession begins. Burry is betting hard on a crash. First come the layoffs, then the defaults. The Fed won’t cut interest rates too much this time.

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Playing out, sadly:

RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS

#Employment

ADP commentary from Chief Economist Richardson: “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”


https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/1996394108911501628

“Every #recession since 1960 has been preceded by a material downturn in LEI/CEI ratio. Today’s reading is squarely in that danger zone. These charts show the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). The current value (≈ 0.86) is:
1. One of the lowest readings in 60+ years,
2. Tracking levels seen ahead of every recession in the sample,
3. Showing a persistent, multi-year decline—similar to pre-1980, pre-1990, pr e-2001, pre-2008, and 2020 patterns.” (Tobias Carlisle)


The Federal Reserve is not going to Cut interest rates too much

They know if they start cutting rates it’s going to fuck up

The Yen Carry trade

Cause now interest rates will be cheaper here , while in Japan Interest rates will rise

Whole point of the Carry trade was to take low interest rate Japanese money and come to the United States and make high interest yield

What’s happening now is the REVERSE

Japan is raising , America is lowering

F**king up their trade and making them unwind.