Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This is the canary in the coal mine for the whole credit market. Private credit was supposed to be safer than banks but defaults keep climbing. When easy refinancing ends the real pain starts. Watch for more blow ups in 2026 and 2027. Fitch reports U.S. private credit default rate at 6.0% for trailing twelve …
We are back at 2008 levels. Household insolvency is moving faster than at any time since the financial crisis. Credit card highs with no signs of cooling inflation. Energy prices give you a break over the weekend, then boom. Trump headline ruined. https://t.co/5Ti4zNWKoj — Business Nature (@BusinessNMedia) May 26, 2026 U.S. Credit Card Accounts delinquent …
The scary part isn't the 14%. The scary part is the context of 2011 vs today. In 2011, defaults hit 14% because unemployment was at 9%. Today, we are hitting 14% while unemployment is supposedly 'low.' It proves the 'Vibecession' is real: Consumers have jobs, but the jobs don't… pic.twitter.com/gTnf9b9i97 — The Quantified Universe (@TheQuantUni) …
Fitch Ratings reported US private credit default rate climbed to fresh peak for trailing 12 months. Rise driven by high interest rates stressing smaller and mid-market borrowers. Many cases involve payment-in-kind deals and distressed exchanges masking full pain. Sectors like software and auto facing extra heat from AI disruption and costs. Analysts warn rates could …
Federal debt in arrears smashes through 2019 peak , now $171 billion and climbing… Middle aged borrowers lead the collapse , average defaulter pushes nearly 40… Millions walk away from payments in early 2026 , fresh wave of skips hits hard… Americans are defaulting on their student loan debt at a record pace: Delinquent federal …
WE HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS BROKE… Searches for ‘can’t pay credit card’ smash records… 11% of accounts now seriously delinquent… Savings rate vanishes… 🚨 Americans have never been this broke before. Google searches for “can’t pay credit card” just hit an all time high. At the same time, US consumer confidence has collapsed to one …
UBS freezing withdrawals for up to three years and firms like Apollo and BlackRock putting limits in place is not normal market behavior, that is liquidity stress showing itself in real time. People keep comparing this to 2008 like it is a straight repeat, it is not the same structure, but the core problem feels …
UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults – Leveraged loans: 8% – High-yield bonds: 4% PC most exposed because that’s where 2021-2022 vintage software deals got funded when banks couldn’t syndicate. The concentration is now becoming the vulnerability. UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults– Leveraged loans: 8%– High-yield …
2026 just started and China already dropped a financial bomb 💣 Beijing quietly EXTENDED a policy letting banks roll over 3.8 TRILLION yuan of bad personal loans. Translation: the debts are so bad they can’t be cleaned up. Banks are dumping credit-card defaults at 10–20¢ on the dollar, hiding losses, and repackaging the trash into …
Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS #Employment ADP commentary from Chief Economist Richardson: “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.” Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS#Employment ADP …
Everything here points to stress building faster than anyone in charge wants to admit. When this many cracks show up at the same time, something bigger is already pushing underneath the surface. Odds of a U.S. recession in next year almost 40%https://t.co/b3edTK8whk — NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) November 16, 2025 There’s never just one cockroach 🪳 https://t.co/yVDebFcIo7 …
by Michael It feels like someone has pulled a plug, because the U.S. economy is suddenly caught in an extremely alarming downward spiral. As I discussed at the end of last week, investors are flocking to gold and silver because they can see that a storm is coming. We have reached a point where most of …
The alarms aren’t just blinking anymore. They’re blaring. America’s debt-fueled consumer economy is starting to crack. Families who used to keep the stores and car dealers busy are now falling behind on payments. This isn’t some slow leak. It looks and feels like the early days of 2008, only deeper and faster. Car loans are …
by confoundedinterest17 In addition to soaring sellers to buyers ratio in US housing markets, we now have surging mortgage default risk (CDR) after mortgage rate resets. Did Powell and The Fed (aka, Jay Powell and the Blackhearts) wait too long to cut rates? Here is the soaring ratio of home sellers to buyers. OOOGG!!!
Student loans are cracking. Retail margins are gone. Same pressure. Different fronts. Borrowers are defaulting into wage garnishment. Retailers are stuck with early inventory and no restock window. Both moved too soon. The SAVE plan stalled. Notices went out. Interest resumed. Servicers weren’t ready. Borrowers weren’t warned. Now 3 million are set to default by …
by Michael Did you know that U.S. households are carrying $1.18 trillion in credit card debt? Considering the fact that the average rate of interest on credit card balances is now over 20 percent, that is not good news at all. Sadly, most of the country is just barely scraping by from month to month in …
UPS is closing 73 buildings and cutting 20,000 jobs. Amazon volume is down 50 percent. That’s not automation. That’s collapse. UPS says it’s “reconfiguring the network” but the closures are concentrated in retail-heavy states where consumer demand is evaporating. Q2 revenue fell nearly 3 percent. Peak season plans? Not submitted. That means retailers don’t know …
The housing market is not just cooling. It is cracking. The latest data from May 2025 shows existing home sales running at an annualized pace of 4.03 million units. That is the weakest May since 2009. It is also the second-worst May on record. Sales have now declined year over year for four straight months. …
Picture 2008 again. The fear on screens. The system breaking. Now pause. The difference today is quieter and darker. The collapse arrives in data points, not alarms. Start with labor. The working‑age population between 25 and 54 is now shrinking in absolute terms. That means fewer workers, fewer new households, fewer buyers. Without a growing …
1. The corporate downgrades and defaults are slowly rising. To put the current corporate environment in perspective, we reviewed the United States corporate default since 2020. – Moody’s estimates that credit conditions in 2025 will be challenging enough that the realized… pic.twitter.com/opYe22beKh — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) May 16, 2025 2 (a) – Distressed defaults are detrimental …
2/ The Fed had been on an unprecedented hiking cycle Taking rates from near 0% to 5.5% in just 1.5 years Ensuring tight monetary policy in the process pic.twitter.com/s8OvQS8I6C — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 21, 2025 4/ During the recent hiking cycle, 30-year mortgage rates broke out a key downtrend line It rose from 2.65% …
2/ From 1940s to 1970s, Americans used to save around 10% of their annual income But today, savings relative to income is almost near 0% pic.twitter.com/aEsoNYSKiZ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 18, 2025 4/ Today, the personal savings rate has dropped to 4.6% This is historically a very low level pic.twitter.com/us3oz4YLN0 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
The next crisis won’t look anything like 2008. That’s what makes it so dangerous. Back in 2008, the signs were clear. There was an obvious housing crisis and a collapse in banking. This time, it’s much more insidious, creeping into different sectors in ways most people don’t notice. Right now, 4.3 million Americans have been …
Private credit default evolution according to Fitch: January: 5.0%February: 5.7% Nothing to see here folks pic.twitter.com/BiInWmLtWA — junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) March 20, 2025
Another Biden Miracle: Odds rising on a recession as defaults soar 50% 🤯 https://t.co/h4xXSsJVzE — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) December 30, 2024 Volatility-based breakout signals risk-off scenario, reminiscent of COVID-19 and 2008 crises. A breakout pattern based on volatility has just triggered a warning signal similar to the one observed during the COVID-19 crash. …
10 year bond yield surges up to 4.611% 💀 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 24, 2024 ⚠️US LEVERAGE LOAN DEFAULTS ARE SKYROCKETING⚠️ US firms are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest pace since the 2020 CRISIS. This comes as firms took MASSIVELY on debt during the low rates environment in 2020 and now are …
Corporate bankruptcies and defaults accelerating, unemployment continues to rise, and spreads blow out. Especially, after Powell said “we’ve avoided recession” and S&P Global is expecting the speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3.5% by September 2025. Moody’s pointed out… https://t.co/9tn3htvQQI pic.twitter.com/kPNU1t3OTz — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 21, 2024 This is concerning: Non-farm payroll employment in …
Was at the Apple Store yesterday to get some upgrades before the tariff war increases prices, this was literally the worst holiday sales the store has seen (per employee) Its so bad you can see the 0 demand for the Vision Pro, totally worth the 40X. 2 weeks before xmas lol pic.twitter.com/nhhdizGBQy — The Punisher …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, The system has reached extremes that can no longer be rebalanced by policy tweaks, borrowing another couple trillion dollars or inflating asset bubbles. There are many possible answers to the question “what ails us?” but they all boil down to one reality: the socio-political-economic system has slowly transmogrified into one …
4/ The financial pressure on consumers is evident in the increasing number of defaults Consumer defaults is now climbing at the fastest pace since 2007 While still below 2007 peaks, if current trends persist, we could hit 2008 levels H1 2025 pic.twitter.com/K1j77j1n8L — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 24, 2024 ShopperTrak same-store retail traffic is a …