Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
2/ The Fed has been on an unprecedented hiking cycle since 2022 Taking rates from near 0% to 5.5% in just 1.5 years pic.twitter.com/3eVzwmSreS — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 27, 2024 4/ High rates negatively impact the housing market Given the high rate sensitivity of that sector — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 27, 2024 6/ …
WARNING: Housing defaults have skyrocketed Such a run-up was last seen during the Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/KcDppiC6Lz — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 19, 2024 Housing Affordability Continues to Erode The latest data on housing affordability paints an increasingly challenging picture for American homebuyers. As of July 2024, the median household would need to spend an estimated …
Related: There have been reports that banks are preparing for potential economic challenges, including defaults. For example, major banks like JPMorgan Chase have been scenario-planning for potential U.S. credit defaults, which could have significant economic impacts. This preparation includes reviewing client contracts and assessing the potential effects on financial markets.
by herbanoutfitter 2009 was bad but this time around it won’t just be mortgages—EVERYTHING is overleveraged. Consumer loans including credit cards, mortgages, car loans, small business loans, corporate loans, private credit instruments. When interest rates were low, that worked fine. Decent returns for low volatility. But now inflation is still not at target and higher …
BEWARE: Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2011 This is not looking good pic.twitter.com/lFqQMxpVNt — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 19, 2024 Here's a comparison of home prices through 23 & 24 months since cycle peaks. 2006-08 vs 2022-24 on left. On the right is months 25 and on of the 06 cycle. …
Credit card and auto loan debt delinquencies are stacking upThe only reason student loan delinquencies are at the lows, is because they are not reported until October 1, 2024As far as mortgages are concerned most are already locked into 3% rates. Let us see what this looks like… pic.twitter.com/pYy52fSK5J — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) …
Banking sector is 🚮 — Sam Smith (@Sam65488) May 29, 2024 It appears that the banking sector is facing significant turmoil, with Bank OZK’s substantial loan exposure of $915 million, particularly concerning. The potential default on $135 million allocated for ‘Echo Street West’ in Atlanta underscores broader fears about the sector’s leverage levels. This news …
Personal and household debt at all-time highs,far fewer loan transactions, Low interest. All bad signs for banks. Not to mention their exposure to airlines, hotels, tourists, and other industries. I’ll be surprised if any can pass the stress test. They cant play fast and lose with bank members’ cash. Banking shares still down about 30% …
In the financial landscape of commercial real estate (CRE), looming debt obligations signal a potential crisis, with nearly $929 billion in commercial mortgage loans set to mature by the end of 2024. This staggering sum, outlined in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) 2023 Commercial Real Estate Survey, underscores the mounting pressure on America’s small- and …
Housing defaults have now reached the highest level in a decade. Multi-family = Apartments This is not looking too good … 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/WLmNtorY9I — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) April 25, 2024 Purchase applications for homes continue to collapse. Exactly as zero of the "housing analysts" predicted pic.twitter.com/ZW8pMkMGv4 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 25, 2024
The Federal Reserve just released a new study showing that credit card default rates in America have surged up to the highest level on record. In some cases – even worse than what we saw in 2008. These skyrocketing credit card defaults are an ominous sign of the US Economy and Consumers. Particularly for those …
Corporate bonds outstanding >$10T. Primary dealer inventory $33B -not a liquid market. When credit markets quiet & calm, it gives impression liquidity's fine, but if many want to sell, liquidity disappears. Even in quiet markets, finding a bond can take several days @apolloglobal pic.twitter.com/6tx1U6jNH6 — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 24, 2024 Up and to …
China's Real Estate Collapse At the heart of the decline in family wealth is China's real estate meltdown, which is having a pervasive effect on a society where 70% of family assets are tied up in property. Towards the end of last year, 34 of the top 50 Chinese property… pic.twitter.com/owUbTR8RjW — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) …
This trend raises alarm about the broader risks from interlinked dependencies. LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) – Europe’s private credit funds are increasingly borrowing from banks to boost their performance, fuelling concerns about the wider risks posed by this interconnectedness. A record 80% of new European private credit funds borrowed from banks via ‘subscription lines’ in …
Global Corporate Defaults hit highest level since the Global Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/A676mRcBI7 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 14, 2024 Meanwhile in US: WARNING: Credit card default rate for small lenders have just hit a new record of 7.8% These levels have never been seen since 1991 pic.twitter.com/DrCN9MF0bv — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) March 14, 2024
Apartment landlords around America are going into default on their mortgages at decade-high rates, suggesting that the Commercial Real Estate Crash is going to get even worse in 2024. With data from Freddie Mac reporting that the serious delinquency rate on multifamily mortgages have quadrupled over the last year. With many real estate owners and …
Millennials Are Losing Their Cars. Billing disputes surged year-on-year among Gen X and Millennials, LegalShield said, who have experienced a 96 percent increase in billing inquiries. Calls are up across the board as well, with a 53 percent increase among all LegalShield members, indicating a broader rise in billing-related issues. John Saltarelli, a LegalShield provider …
Hold on tight, because the global financial landscape might be on the brink of a seismic shift! Brace yourself for a wave of emerging market sovereign defaults – yes, a wave! We’re talking about countries deciding they’re just not that into paying back their debts anymore. It’s like a financial version of ghosting, but with …
ATTENTION: Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2013 This is now starting to look scary pic.twitter.com/IP2J3mCYHs — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) February 18, 2024 Home prices just saw the largest year-over-year decline, dating back to 1964: https://t.co/kn2vAsyI15 — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) February 20, 2024 Na pic.twitter.com/eBLQWa1HGM — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 20, 2024
Subprime Auto-Loan Delinquencies Rise to 2019 Levels: a Dive into Subprime Lending and Securitizations pic.twitter.com/A5gyIrxj3e — QUACK (@RichQuack) January 14, 2024 Credit Card Debt Climbs: 56 Million Americans in Prolonged Debt Amid Economic Pressures The credit card debt situation in the U.S. is becoming increasingly concerning, with a record $1.08 trillion in balances as reported …
In the midst of holiday festivities that captivated the attention of many, a seismic shift silently unfolded within the intricate web of the global banking sector. The evolving narrative tells a tale of banks tightening their fists, shutting down branches, and adapting to the evolving digital landscape. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBtYaE3vhrU
“By inducing their students to borrow from the government, higher education institutions collect vastly inflated tuition and fees, which they then spend without worrying about whether the loans will ever be repaid. This in turn incentivizes them to push the tuition and fees, and room and board, ever higher — by an average of 169 …
by confoundedinterest17 Both the US Federal government and California’s government are facing a fiscal inferno. Thanks to a softening economy and inane fiscal policies. At the macro level, we see that The Federal government has gone wild spending money and borrowing it. Much more than businesses and households. Biden’s wild spending reduces the degrees of freedom that …
Chinese borrowers default in record numbers as economic crisis deepensMore than 8mn people are blacklisted by authorities after missed payments on mortgages and business loans. Defaults by Chinese borrowers have surged to a record high since the outbreak of the coronavirus… pic.twitter.com/SOXOR3tX01 — floridanow1 (@floridanow1) December 13, 2023 China's Real Estate Market suffered an 81% …
by GreggraffinCI https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/12/three-measures-of-us-credit-card-debt/#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20outstanding%20credit%20card,for%20consumer%20spending%20going%20forward. From a disposable income standpoint the Fed data agrees that the consumer is better able to service their debt now than they ever have. That peaked during the stimmie checks but that gap has closed from -25% to -5% in the past 2 years. Which is not a promising trend. Adjusting for …
In a harrowing turn, new home prices have plummeted by a staggering 18%, marking the most significant annual decline on record, surpassing even the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. The grim reality intensifies as builders face a crisis, with mortgage demand hitting its lowest since 1994, and housing defaults soaring to levels not seen …
The signs of an impending auto loan debt crisis are becoming increasingly apparent, as noted by AutoMoBlog. Wall Street’s lucrative practice of selling car loans to individuals with limited capacity to repay is fueling concerns, mirroring practices reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Simultaneously, the rapid increase in defaults on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) is …
Investors pulled out a record amount from Corporate Bond ETFs in October, while US bankruptcies and housing defaults surged. Bank of America forecasts a record year for cash funds, suggesting widespread concern and a cautious market approach. Corporate Bond ETFs had an outflow of $9.4 Billion in October, the highest amount in history pic.twitter.com/xbvPs24jUq — …
The United States is facing significant economic challenges, with record-high rates of consumer defaults on credit cards and car loans, reflecting the financial strain on many households. WARNING: The consumer is borrowing more than they can afford Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has spiked to 7.51% This level is higher than: …
Small companies employ almost 50% of all US employees Any significant impact on these businesses would have severe consequences for employment From 2024 onwards, a lot of these companies will start to have refinancing requirements as their outstanding debt comes due The big… pic.twitter.com/ikidGowail — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 18, 2023 Other announcements in the …