Odds rising on a recession as defaults soar 50%. Complacent gamblers are going to party hard tomorrow and enter 2025 with a hangover.

Another Biden Miracle: Odds rising on a recession as defaults soar 50% 🤯 https://t.co/h4xXSsJVzE

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) December 30, 2024

Volatility-based breakout signals risk-off scenario, reminiscent of COVID-19 and 2008 crises.

A breakout pattern based on volatility has just triggered a warning signal similar to the one observed during the COVID-19 crash.

Emerging market FX is highly sensitive to risk-off scenarios, and I find the combination of Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels particularly… pic.twitter.com/3LISyDyDWX

— Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) December 30, 2024

This morning the S&P 500 crashed through the 50 day moving average deja vu of two weeks ago. However, back then the VIX was 28 and today the high was 18.

As we see, this test/re-test sequence is deja vu of August.

Complacent gamblers are going to party hard tomorrow and enter… pic.twitter.com/64psryPSih

— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 30, 2024

pic.twitter.com/JAYMLlI9bw

— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 30, 2024

Who likes rioting? pic.twitter.com/F4TiFLO8s5

— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 28, 2024

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Two Scenarios for the Dow Jones Industrials

The Dow testing the recent low and trying to bounce after dropping over 600 pts. Possible bottoming tail forms by the end of the session. Again, the DJIA has likely topped. A rebound back up for a countertrend will likely allow the… pic.twitter.com/ZKcpt3nPjz

— King of the Charts (@ChartingProdigy) December 30, 2024