Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Prime Day spending crashes and factory jobs slashed while investors still bet on soft or no landing economy. Ngl this might be the biggest recession indicator of all-time. https://t.co/C2hlqUawrr — Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) June 24, 2026 Every corporation in America is running the same experiment right now. How much will we pay …
Carney in 2025: 85% of goods are exempt form Trump tariffs, we have the best deal of any nation …..2026? The recession is caused by the Trump tariffs. — Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) June 2, 2026 They are going to study TDS one day. Carney played Canadians so perfectly with it. People are utterly obsessed with …
Hammack drops the bomb that rates need to stay put but hike risk just jumped Zandi ties the whole mess to Iran dragging on with oil shock hitting hard People scream the fed tool breaks against geopolitics and congress spending Berkshire style cash hoarding screams smart money sees the trap coming Regular families watch inflation …
Mark Zandi warns five dollar gas hits in weeks unless the strait reopens fast… Europe gas storage sits at twenty eight percent with full winter blackout risk… Trump advisor spills refineries killed domestic gasoline output just to chase diesel export profits to Asia… Working class eats the entire supply chain collapse and higher costs… Foreign …
Bloomberg: "Canada edged into a technical recession as weak business and government spending drove a slight contraction in the first quarter…Real gross domestic product fell by 0.1% on an annualized basis during the first three months of the year…: That follows a 1%… pic.twitter.com/ttA5YknRR4 — Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) May 29, 2026
Beef hits record highs, no quick fix on horizon… Iran chaos joins bad weather, food supplies take heavy hit… Voters line up ready to punish empty promises, full carts… Hate to say it but this one’s gonna sting come election time… Gas is sky high, groceries are unaffordable, I keep hearing that a housing crash …
While rumors and reports swirl about a possible Iran deal, the clock is still ticking for an economy that’s way too close to the point of no return on the energy shock. In fact, for Europe, there is a nontrivial chance it’s already gone past. With the latest data out on Friday, the economic numbers …
The next recession wipes all these people out https://t.co/TXw2tecSZD — axcilla (@axcilla) May 21, 2026
🇺🇸🇮🇷 A recession is coming, and most people won't see it until it's too late. Energy Economist Anas Alhajji explains why the official numbers are lying to you. "Don't be fooled by the stock market going up. The first official data of a recession is going to come out. We are… https://t.co/3hzrU37ROP pic.twitter.com/t8nbWqglLZ — Mario …
free refills were the last thing in america you could take without asking permission. pic.twitter.com/ruUrzGtb7d — SLEPE (@SlepeOnBase) May 4, 2026
GOLDMAN SACHS SOLOMON: RECESSION RISK COULD CHANGE, 'ONLY ONE TWEET AWAY' — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) April 21, 2026 🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL JUST SAID LIVE ON CNBC: "THERE IS EFFECTIVELY ZERO NET JOB CREATION IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR." IF THE WAR WITH IRAN CONTINUES, THINGS WILL GET EVEN WORSE THIS IS …
The top 20% of Americans now own the majority of US real estate: The top 1% of US earners hold a record $6.1 trillion in real estate, followed by the next 19% who hold $21.0 trillion, an all-time high. This means the top 20% own a combined $27.1 trillion, or 56.4% of total US real …
Recent labor market data suggests that the U.S. may already be entering the recession that some economists have for months been anticipating, according to the global financial services firm and credit ratings agency Moody’s. The company devised a new model to determine whether and when the country is in the midst of a downturn. Incorporating …
If Trump hits Iran’s power plants, Iran will hit gulf countries’ oil fields, refineries, and desalination plants. Oil will go to $150. If oil hits $150, we’ll likely have a global recession, says Blackrock CEO: https://t.co/ttimJG1ONv pic.twitter.com/XaLD3owgMq — Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) April 5, 2026 Most people think war stays “over there.” It doesn’t. Today it’s …
BREAKING: A recession model that has predicted every single US downturn in 80 years just hit 49%. The threshold is 50%. Every time it has crossed that line, a recession followed within 12 months. No exceptions. And the data behind this reading doesn’t even include the Iran war yet… Moody’s built an AI model trained …
$BLK CEO: "We'll have a global recession if oil hits $150." Oil is now above $110. Politicians should ask themselves: Do we really want to induce a global recession in the middle of what could be the biggest technological and economic boom ever? https://t.co/jIfOeACye9 pic.twitter.com/5xwVfTBGWd — Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) April 2, 2026 🚨 BREAKING: Oil …
U.S. gasoline hits $4 per gallon, highest since 2022, as Iran war drives up fuel prices U.S. gasoline prices have surged above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, as the oil supply shock triggered by the Middle East war rapidly drives up costs for families. Prices at the pump …
As shown below, the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown. I haven’t published the WRS for some time and “Walmart Worries” just keep multiplying. For the details see my latest @ https://t.co/cmZvbGqspf pic.twitter.com/GU4EJg2Hx6 — Jim Paulsen (@jimwpaulsen) March 30, 2026 Walmart recession signal on …
United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and staying above $100 next year as industry faces worst shock since COVID The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has delivered the biggest disruption to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic, and United is bracing for a future where oil prices remain high through 2027. …
Rising oil prices won't cause higher inflation. More expensive oil means Americans will have less money to spend on other things. Reduced spending will cause a recession, which will result in larger budget deficits, rate cuts, and QE. That's what will cause higher inflation. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 23, 2026 They are shorting crude …
March 20 (Reuters) – United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby said on Friday the airline will cancel about 5% of this year’s planned flights in the short term, as jet fuel prices surge due to the Middle East conflict. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense …
The sector rotation is screaming recession louder than any headline.$XLY down 5.6% in a month. Financials down 6.1%. Healthcare down 6.8%. Meanwhile energy ripped 7.6% higher. That's a 13 point spread between energy and consumer discretionary. Costs rising while demand falls.… — TraderHC (@traderhc) March 20, 2026 Ok wtf even is this pic.twitter.com/qw3FF8W77l — Andrew …
Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. An oil shock is quickly solved by non-OPEC supply, alternatives, and flexible systems. LNG is only 15% of the total gas market but very tight in supply and much more challenging to… pic.twitter.com/vCf5mQJAA0 — Daniel Lacalle …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
Several headlines sitting together right now point to a very uncomfortable possibility. Energy markets may be heading toward another shock. Officials are discussing the possibility of releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That reserve currently holds hundreds of millions of barrels and is meant for severe supply disruptions. The last major drawdown happened during …
It maps out EXACTLY which jobs AI is actively performing right now vs. which ones it COULD perform. Anthropic just published the most important study on AI and jobs. The researchers call it a "Great Recession for white-collar workers." It maps out EXACTLY which jobs AI is actively performing right now vs. which ones it …
He ain’t wrong, How can anyone be bullish on $39 Trillion in debt and AI bubble about to pop! pic.twitter.com/8lbaveRAZ0 — TruTherForTruth™️ (@truthenforcerQ) March 2, 2026 Foreign Central Banks now own more Gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time in almost 30 years byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
The U.S. economic data is all fake We are in a deep recession — Nostra, House of Gold (@Nostre_damus) February 15, 2026 SALES OF HEAVY TRUCKS ARE PLUNGING, A TREND THAT HAS HISTORICALLY SIGNALED AN APPROACHING RECESSION. — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) February 15, 2026 Even Jerome Powell was warning about a potential liquidity event in …
via confoundedinterest17 The gap between 2s and 10s Treasuies is now the widest it’s been since early 2022. According to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now report, the current real GDP growth rate is 3.7%. But the yield curve is a forward looking measure.