If Trump hits Iran’s power plants, Iran will hit gulf countries’ oil fields, refineries, and desalination plants. Oil will go to $150. If oil hits $150, we’ll likely have a global recession, says Blackrock CEO

If Trump hits Iran’s power plants, Iran will hit gulf countries’ oil fields, refineries, and desalination plants. Oil will go to $150. If oil hits $150, we’ll likely have a global recession, says Blackrock CEO: https://t.co/ttimJG1ONv pic.twitter.com/XaLD3owgMq — Oguz Erkan …

READ MORE

Moody’s recession model hits 49%, the last time it sat this high outside of an actual recession was September 2007. The Fed’s worst nightmare is getting worse. System looks stable until it doesn’t, 2008 veteran warns blind spots can hide the next crisis

BREAKING: A recession model that has predicted every single US downturn in 80 years just hit 49%. The threshold is 50%. Every time it has crossed that line, a recession followed within 12 months. No exceptions. And the data behind …

READ MORE

The Fed is openly acknowledging a weakening labor market. AI hype overshot reality and now the supply chain is stuck dealing with it. The Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown.

As shown below, the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown. I haven’t published the WRS for some time and “Walmart Worries” just keep multiplying. For the details see my …

READ MORE

20-year yield hits 4.97%, stocks face a cap, but credit markets are not pricing a recession yet. United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and staying above $100 next year.

United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and staying above $100 next year as industry faces worst shock since COVID The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has delivered the biggest disruption to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic, …

READ MORE

Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed. Every. Single. Time. Recession talk builds. Fed won’t cut until something breaks.

Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. An oil shock is quickly solved by non-OPEC supply, alternatives, and flexible systems. LNG is only 15% of the total gas …

READ MORE

An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil Prices. “The Income Effect” is the reason. Morgan Stanley still expects Fed cuts, oil shock threatens growth. $150 oil warning, recession risk climbs to 20%

Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to …

READ MORE

Recession into All-Time Highs and you thought I was kidding. Stocks are ridiculously overvalued but it never seems to matter

Recession into All-Time Highs™️ and you thought I was kidding#K https://t.co/XlcrVptauj — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) February 11, 2026 Stocks are ridiculously overvalued but it never seems to matter 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/8nPSA5UrCL — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) February 10, 2026 JUST IN: US …

READ MORE