March 20 (Reuters) – United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby said on Friday the airline will cancel about 5% of this year’s planned flights in the short term, as jet fuel prices surge due to the Middle East conflict.
“If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense just for jet fuel,” Kirby said in a message to employees posted on its website.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-airlines-cut-5-scheduled-233346719.html
Why the Fed’s Next Rate Move Could Be a Hike
An increase, once unthinkable, has become thinkable thanks to stubborn inflation, Iran and a resilient economy
Officially, the Federal Reserve is still focused on when and by how much to cut interest rates again.
Unofficially, the vibes have changed. The Fed’s next move might be to raise rates.
Emphasis on “might.” This isn’t the Fed’s or my personal baseline scenario. But three factors are raising the risk.
First, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Second, the jump in oil prices could push it farther from the target without slowing demand much. Third, interest rates are down a lot since the Fed started to ease in 2024 and by some measures are going lower.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/why-the-feds-next-rate-move-could-be-a-hike-81e22988
Recession is guaranteed if crude oil hits this price… and Wall Street warns it is alarmingly close
America’s economy is holding up well despite surging oil prices – for now – but alarm bells are ringing on Wall Street.
Iran has closed off a key oil export route, disrupting global crude supplies and making everything from gasoline to airline tickets much, much more expensive.
A survey published this week found that many experts see the war’s impact on the economy as limited as long as oil prices don’t stay too high for too long.
The Wall Street Journal polled economists to see how high oil prices would have to rise – and how long they’d have to stay elevated – to push the US economy towards recession.
They said that oil would have to stay around $138 a barrel for about three months to push the US economy towards a recession.
So far, the Iran war has lasted almost three weeks and US oil prices have been hovering around $95 – compared to an average price of $65 in February.
‘I think that if oil were to hold above $100 for the next three months, we’d likely see very challenging economic conditions in the US,’ Tim Rezvan, managing director oil & gas equity research at KeyBanc Capital Markets, told the Daily Mail.
Rezvan emphasized that even if the war were to end in a week, the lasting economic damage from higher oil prices could pose long-term challenges for the US economy
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-15661543/oil-price-needed-spark-recession-yet.html
Iran strikes cripple Qatar’s 17% LNG export capacity for 5 years, says CEO
Iranian strikes have dealt a severe blow to Qatar’s energy sector, wiping out 17% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity and inflicting massive financial losses, QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said, warning of prolonged disruptions to global supply. Kaabi revealed that the company has already suffered a USD 20 billion loss at a facility that cost USD 26 billion to build just two years ago.
The attacks damaged two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility, taking about 12.8 million tonnes of annual LNG production offline.
Repairs are expected to take three to five years, translating into an estimated USD 20 billion in revenue losses each year during the outage.
QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on affected long-term LNG contracts, signalling that supply commitments to countries such as Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China could be disrupted for years.