Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Oil never caused inflation like this useless compute demand does. Goldman Sachs reports highlight data center electricity demand as key driver of power price spikes. US grid strain from AI and cloud growth keeps growing fast. Inflation concerns rising over energy costs tied to tech expansion. Going to be hilarious when data centers instead of …
I think this is where a lot of people get the economy wrong. They’re judging today’s Federal Reserve with a 1990s playbook. Back then the Fed was mostly known for one thing. Raise rates when inflation got too hot. Cut rates when the economy slowed. That was pretty much the conversation. Look at today’s Fed. …
Fed uses AI as excuse to keep rates high while real driver is energy and capex. Companies burn cash on tools that cost more than people they fired. The grid is ancient and cannot support this pace. Steel and copper win over hype every time. 🚨 THE FED JUST OFFICIALLY BLAMED AI FOR RISING INFLATION. …
by Cassandra The Federal Reserve minutes from the June 16–17 meeting showed policymakers divided over where interest rates should go next. The official minutes admit the problem plainly. Inflation had “increased further and remained well above” the Fed’s 2% objective, while officials blamed tariffs, supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and demand from the AI …
Cookout for 10 people now costs 73.82 dollars according to Farm Bureau survey. Price up 2.90 dollars or 4 percent from last year. Ground beef pork chops chicken and some sides drove the increase. Per person cost reaches 7.38 dollars the highest ever in the survey. Inflation explains most of the rise with food prices …
People usually argue about one tax. What gets overlooked is how many taxes stack on top of each other. Start with the federal income tax, which reaches a top marginal rate of 37%. Then add 15.3% in combined payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, although employees and employers typically split that burden. If you …
pic.twitter.com/Qj6NKCLEB4 — John Gilbert (@MyLiberalPony) June 25, 2026
PCE inflation rose to 4.1 percent annual rate in May. This up from 3.8 percent in April. Core PCE without food and energy also higher at around 3.4 percent. Energy prices main driver from ongoing Middle East issues. Real wages feel squeeze as prices outrun paychecks for many. Video from Rebel Capitalist points out this …
2-year yield near 4.15 percent. This is the front end where Fed rate bets live. 10-year yield near 4.41 percent. Longer money also buying bonds. Dollar index rising strong while gold and oil slide. Tech and risk assets feel the pressure. This combo means traders worry growth is slowing faster than expected. Falling oil can …
by Martin Armstrong Canada’s inflation rate accelerated to 3.2% in May, coming in above expectations and once again exposing the fantasy that inflation was somehow defeated. Policymakers spent the past year congratulating themselves for bringing inflation down, yet the cost of living continues to rise while the economy itself is sliding toward recession. This is precisely the …
A 4.2% inflation rate is not a good number. But it also does not fully explain why so many people still feel squeezed. The reason is simple: Inflation slowing does not mean prices go back. It only means prices are rising slower. The latest CPI shows inflation running at 4.2% over the last 12 months …
What if it is land prices? I always get skeptical when people claim they know exactly when a crash will happen. Then I look at the list of warning signs piling up. The 18.6 year real estate cycle theory says markets typically spend about 14 years climbing and about 4 years falling apart. The last …
Something strange is happening in the bond market. The Fed spent years shrinking its balance sheet through quantitative tightening. Then QT ended in late 2025. Now the Fed’s balance sheet is around $6.7 trillion and has started growing again through Treasury bill purchases designed to keep enough reserves in the banking system. Supporters call this …
Import prices in US rose 1.9% month over month. This was higher than expected (forecast around 1.0%). Export prices rose 1.3% month over month. This was also higher than expected (forecast around 0.9%). Import prices up big because of fuel and other goods costs. Year over year, import prices rose 6.7% — biggest jump in …
But he loves it… pic.twitter.com/mWWMdBobn7 — The Outsider (@calendarking) June 14, 2026
GainsPainsCapital proves wall street is peddling the energy blip narrative to distract from a catastrophic upstream price surge CPI at 4.2 percent is not the story because it is a lagging indicator that captures nothing This chart should concern every investor right now. US CPI printed 4.2% for May. Third consecutive month of acceleration. March: …
Social Security benefits could be cut by 22% in six years if action isn’t taken, according to the annual report from the Social Security Board of Trustees. Millions of retirees and other Americans could soon see a significant cut in their monthly benefits payments from the Social Security Administration if Congress doesn’t act fast. According …
By Peter Reagan In our culture, some people are trend setters and others are trend followers. In the 1980s, for example, Don Johnson and the cast of Miami Vice helped make white slacks and pastel-colored blazers popular. Millions of people followed along, turning a television trend into a cultural phenomenon. Unfortunately for me, I don’t have Miami Vice’s influence. …
by Martin Armstrong The May inflation report came in exactly where many expected, yet the details beneath the headline reveal what is actually taking place in the economy. Consumer prices rose 0.5% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year, the highest inflation reading in three years. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.2% …
The Chinese industrial machine is running on overdrive while the local consumer remains trapped in a deflationary hole Notayesmanseconomics notes industrial input prices jumped 5.8 percent year on year while consumer goods prices fell 0.8 percent This is a classic mercantilist trap where the export machine is hyper-efficient but the internal economy is hollow Beijing …
By Peter Reagan “But it’s just three feet deep, on average!” There’s an old joke about the economist who drowned crossing a river that was, on average, just three feet deep. That’s the problem with averages. They can be technically accurate and practically useless at the same time. I thought of that joke while reading the …
The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms that inflation rose to 4.2% in May 2026. This is the highest level since April 2023. The main driver of this surge is the energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East. Rising gasoline and transportation costs accounted for over 60% of the …
Nobody in DC gives a fuck about your wallet. Consumers face brutal inflation and crumbling dollar value. And a 97% loss since 1913 (founding of the Fed) and an 88% loss since 1971 (closing of the gold window and 100% fiat currency) in the purchasing power of the dollar — by government measurements, which are …
U.S. government debt is projected to grow by 9.9% according to consumer data. Federal deficits are now the primary driver of inflationary pressure in the economy. Treasury yields are elevated because the bond market demands a premium. Fiscal spending is effectively acting as a secondary stimulus to an overheating economy. Policymakers have zero room to …
Gains, Pains & Capital argues Fed policy never eliminated inflation, only displaced it across categories and time Official CPI down from peak levels, but housing still elevated Insurance costs remain one of the fastest rising major expense categories Federal interest expense rising above $1T annually, adding fiscal pressure into price structure Higher rates increasing debt …
Core CPI prints are showing a hidden 4% climb in essential goods. Grocery bills for the average family are up $150 in a single month. Shipping giants are adding a $2,000 per container surcharge to mask fuel pressure. The Fed is still anchored to official prints while real world pricing runs hotter. Construction costs for …
The Conference Board’s latest index dropped to 93.1 in May, a clear sign that shoppers are feeling the pinch. Consumers cited soaring prices at the gas pump and grocery checkout as the primary drivers of their sour mood. Mentions of war and geopolitics in the survey hit new highs, signaling deep anxiety over the Middle …
Consumer sentiment hits all-time low… Borrowing costs reach 2007 highs… The “temporary” inflation trap explained… 61% of Americans said they had to cut back on groceries https://t.co/lv4IA7FhPJ — The Straits Times (@straits_times) May 23, 2026 The American housing market in 2026 locked an entire generation out of ownership and trapped an older one inside payments …
They want you to blame Iran for inflation. Iran is not the cause. The M2 money supply just hit a new all time record high. When the government prints more money and pumps it into the economy prices go up. That's the definition of inflation. Iran is just an excuse. — middleclassparty (@middle_class_us) May 21, …
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump on Iran negotiations: "I'm in no hurry. Everyone is saying, 'Oh, the midterms.' I'm in no hurry." No hurry. Gas is at $4.52. Inflation at 3.8%. The midterms are in 5 months. No hurry at all. https://t.co/vLsxnS0P2F pic.twitter.com/CahAEnAKkL — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 20, 2026 🚨 REPORTER: "What's your message to American families …