Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Global inflation is now projected to hit 3.9% for the year, a jump that economists warn will hit developing nations the hardest as the cost of imported goods and energy erodes real income. While the U.S. economy is holding at a forecasted 2% growth rate, the U.N. report warns that European nations are dangerously exposed …
Financial records show that the U.S. dollar is worth significantly less today than it was in 2020. Because of cumulative inflation over the last six years, $1 from 2020 now has the buying power of roughly $1.29. This means consumers need to spend about 29% more money today to buy the same goods and services …
US Treasuries dump hard, yields smash 2007 highs and climb toward 5 percent… Bond vigilantes force inflation forecast straight to 5 percent nightmare… Fed cornered into July rate hike or lose total control of the debt disaster… Just getting started 🔥 We’re going much higher 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/QOecLbynC9 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 18, 2026 🚨 …
The CPI is a total fraud, by design. Its true purpose is to hide how high inflation is, not to accurately report it. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 17, 2026 Charlie: The US just can't afford to report inflation accurately, if they did report inflation pre 1980 revision calculations and Treasuries actually had a positive …
There is no other explanation, other than the slight possibility that Scott Bessent is dumber than dirt about the very things that are supposed to be his area of expertise. by David Haggith No sooner did Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declare that inflation would only be rising for another two months before it starts to …
President Trump and Xi Jinping are entering the third and final day of the Beijing summit… Insiders say a “Memorandum of Energy Cooperation” is on the table to cool the Iran blockade… Trump is reportedly offering a “pause” on new semiconductor tariffs in exchange for oil security… China’s Ministry of Commerce is pushing for the …
The prospect of a return to Volcker-era economics is no longer a fringe theory. As the 10 year Treasury yield continues its march upward, a growing chorus of macro analysts is warning that the current inflationary spiral is not a temporary spike but a systemic repricing. The argument for interest rates hitting 14% hinges on …
The intensifying bond market crisis is the final warning that the Federal Reserve has learned absolutely nothing from the disaster of 2022. We are watching Treasury yields surge at the same time that oil is sitting above $100 a barrel which is a recipe for a total currency collapse if the Fed keeps pretending that …
Inflation at 3.8 percent… Fed still signals rate cuts… The dollar is being sacrificed… pic.twitter.com/ANGARLR75b — Jay (@themarketvitals) May 12, 2026 Just an observation: The +.6% month on month(mom) inflation seen in April is over +6% annualized. We are starting to get back to the COVID induced 2022 numbers 💀 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May …
LIVE: CPI rips to 3-year high… Gas prices officially up 28 percent YoY… The middle class is being liquidated in real time… Source: fxstreet Gas prices are the main culprit, accounting for nearly half of the monthly spike… Core inflation is stickier than expected, proving price hikes are moving deep into services… Food-at-home costs jumped …
95-year-old Buffett parks $380 billion in cash while flat-out warning the dollar could collapse. Market is now a church with a casino bolted on and the casino has never been more packed. Avis rental car gets GameStop-style meme-squeezed while Buffett calls one-day options pure gambling. Oracle admits he no longer understands most businesses and sees …
The latest CPI data highlights a stubborn 3.3% annual inflation rate today, energy costs are the primary driver of the middle class squeeze… Gasoline prices jumped 21.2% in the latest monthly window, the Hormuz blockade is effectively taxing every American at the pump… Shelter inflation slowed to 3.0%, the slowest pace since 2021, but core …
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index surged to 84.6 in April (way above the expected 80 and up sharply from 78.3 in March). That’s the highest reading since April 2022 and shows input costs are rising fast again, driven heavily by energy/oil prices tied to the Middle East situation. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices The overall Manufacturing PMI held …
Funny thing is he was critical of QE at on point… pic.twitter.com/oad4mD2qSX — jas (@jasminOtt) May 1, 2026 If you think this is ever going to reverse, then you simply do not understand the delusional debt-driven fiat system. Own assets that cannot be debased to protect yourself from the never-ending madness. And have a great …
by David Haggith Ninety percent of Americans feel the nation is in an affordability crisis—the new catch phrase for endless above-target inflation, which has become the new norm. The new norm, however, was just reported as getting wore, rising to 3.5% YoY inflation. The rise was due to the war and particularly fuel prices. A …
Japan’s 10-year yield hits 2.51%, highest since 1997; UK Gilts hit post-2008 highs… Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% but warns “higher inflation is unavoidable”… German 10-year Bund at post-2011 high as energy costs hammer Eurozone GDP… US March inflation surge (3.3%) kills hopes for a pre-summer “Pivot”… US Q1 GDP (Advance) prints at …
Same pattern as the early 80s where costs spiked and an entire generation got locked out of building wealth for years. WASHINGTON, D.C. — The share of U.S. non-homeowners who expect to buy a home within five years has dropped to 25%, the lowest Gallup has measured in seven readings since it began asking the …
by dominiond66 Just look at the financial facts. Last year Corporate America had RECORD Profits. Total of $3.4 Trillion! So much profit, they did not know what to do with it, so they bought back their stock at RECORD levels. $1.2 Trillion last year! Clearly, they got so much money from paying low wages/benefits to …
Keep acting like the consumer is still strong and spending like nothing’s changed… and yeah, it’s going to look fine until it suddenly isn’t. Inflation still hot and people already stretched, that’s the kind of setup where things can roll over, but timing is always the tricky part. U.S. inflation picture is the worst in …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought disappointing news for the UK on the inflation front. We can start with the measure targeted by the Bank of England. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% in the 12 months to March 2026, up from 3.0% in the 12 months to February. On a monthly basis, …
Inflation expectations over the next 12 months plunge from over 5% to under 3.5% according to the Bond Market byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Institutions are loading up on call options at the fastest pace ever recorded 📈🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/y6QmeCNC70 — Barchart (@Barchart) April 17, 2026 IMHO Sec Bessent is reading the tape correctly: core inflation is falling, the …
via Phoenix Capital Research The Trump administration is now actively gaming the inflation data. For decades, the U.S. has understated the true state of inflation by applying various accounting gimmicks to the inflation data: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producers Price Index (PPI). The primary reasons for this are because A) it allows …
via notayesmanseconomics: One of the features of the conflict in the Middle East so far has been the way that measuring the incoming inflation wave has been made more difficult by two factors. Firstly the extreme volatility in oil prices driven by a cycle of extreme threats followed by talk of negotiations. For example there …
Turkey and Argentina used rate pressure management to ease fiscal strain but ended up amplifying inflation and currency instability through loss of market confidence. The former US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says lowering rates to reduce debt service costs can lead to inflation getting out of control. She compared the United States today to …
GAS PRICES THREATEN TO ERASE TAX REFUND BOOST Refunds rose 14% YoY (avg. $3,462, +11%) but came in slightly below expectations, offering only a modest lift to consumption. A ~15% jump in gas prices (~$3.60+) could fully offset that gain, leaving overall consumer spending flat… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 15, 2026 GAS SPIKE SQUEEZES …
US March PPI inflation rises to 4.0%, its highest since February 2023. BREAKING: US March PPI inflation rises to 4.0%, its highest since February 2023. Core PPI inflation was unchanged, at 3.8%, also the highest since February 2023. We are now officially seeing inflation metrics in the US that are at 4% or higher. Inflation …
by Martin Armstrong The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 0.4% in February alone and is now running at 2.8% annually, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still sitting at 3.0%. That is not progress. That is stagnation well above the Fed’s 2% target, and it …
"Consensus estimates from Bloomberg now project GDP at 2.28% and headline CPI inflation at 3% to end the year."@_JoshSchafer pic.twitter.com/iYvnlVhrO1 — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) April 8, 2026 🔴 Fed Minutes: Many participants saw risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid persistent oil price increase, which could call for rate hikes. — FinancialJuice …
