Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in February, significantly missing the 0.5% decline expectation as transportation demand craters. The manufacturing floor is falling out while the Fed stays hawkish. This is the “hard landing” signal the bulls are desperately trying to ignore. Bank of America warns of a 0.9% March CPI jump driven by a …
via Phoenix Capital Research War is inherently inflationary for the following reasons: Governments ramp up spending to fund the war effort: weapons, personnel, logistics, and reconstruction. The potential for supply side disruptions: in a globalized world, war can disrupt the production of natural resources as well as their shipping routes. Regarding #1, the Trump administration …
via notayesmanseconomics Over the past 24 hours the European Central Bank has received a couple of pieces of rather unwelcome data.We can start with what is its modus operandi. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.5% in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European …
The war in Iran is, for markets, a hot mess. It’s on, it’s off, it’s getting better, it’s getting worse and pretty much every asset class on the planet is getting bashed around with every new headline like a ping-pong game from hell. Some of this is frankly too exhausting and ultimately too pointless to …
I think Iran knows they can win the war just by surviving long enough for Trump to surrender by claiming the biggest victory in the history of war. They know Trump will ultimately be guided by poll numbers, oil prices, the stock market, and the U.S. economy, not Iran's position. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March …
via Phoenix Capital Research President Trump just unveiled another massive TACO. The term “TACO” is an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” It implies that the President, for all his bluster and verbal aggression, is in fact quite opposed to conflict, especially if it hurts the stock market. Earlier today, President Trump tweeted the following: …
Rising oil prices won't cause higher inflation. More expensive oil means Americans will have less money to spend on other things. Reduced spending will cause a recession, which will result in larger budget deficits, rate cuts, and QE. That's what will cause higher inflation. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 23, 2026 They are shorting crude …
10-year Treasury yields hit 4.4% for the first time since July 2025. But war, exploding debt and soaring inflation will drive yields much higher. Without big rate cuts and massive QE (a mistake), stocks and real estate will crash, resulting in a financial crisis worse than 2008. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 20, 2026 🚨 …
By Peter Reagan I’m going to start with something that sounds like good news. Most of the truly catastrophic things we worry about… never actually happen. That’s not just optimism – it’s human experience. As Mark Twain supposedly said, most of the terrible things in his life never occurred. But here’s the problem. The things …
March 20 (Reuters) – United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby said on Friday the airline will cancel about 5% of this year’s planned flights in the short term, as jet fuel prices surge due to the Middle East conflict. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense …
It’s over, too hot $SPY https://t.co/30ZT8RmB2Q — JLoc (@JohnLoc18) March 18, 2026 PPI came in very hot and Israel hit a gas field on Iran causing oil to pump. The two of them are why SPY is selling off pre-market. With this PPI I am even more sure the dots will move up and the …
via Phoenix Capital Research As I keep emphasizing, the War in Iran has the potential to ignite another round of inflation in the U.S. In fact, the longer this conflict drags on, the higher the odds of inflation surging. When most people think about oil and its uses, they think of gasoline and cars. But …
New economic data released today delivered a troubling combination for the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy. The second estimate of Q4 GDP came in at just 0.7 percent, far below the 1.4 percent economists expected and marking the second weakest growth reading in the past 3.5 years. At the same time, inflation pressures …
Federal Reserve officials say geopolitical tensions could push inflation higher and complicate monetary policy decisions Federal Reserve policymakers are monitoring the conflict with Iran for its potential impact on inflation and consumer prices, as energy prices have jumped since the outbreak of hostilities. Oil prices briefly surged over $100 a barrel amid fears of supply …
Truflation called it: 2.4% . 35M+ data points. Real-time. No crystal ball.https://t.co/6NsWimzn6e — Truflation (@truflation) March 11, 2026 Feb CPI up 0.3% M/M, 2.4% Y/Y, and core up 0.2% M/M, 2.5% Y/Y; shelter (+3.0% Y/Y) was biggest contributor even w/ rent rising just 0.1% M/M, slowest since Jan '21; disturbingly, natural gas utility price is …
via Phoenix Capital Research As I mentioned yesterday, the War in Iran has the potential to ignite another inflationary storm in the U.S. We’ve already assessed the threat this conflict presents to energy prices. Today, I want to dive into the fact that the U.S. was already on the cusp of a second round of …
TraderHC @traderhc We’re cooking. Bonds just sold off on a clean inflation print. Read that again. CPI came in benign. The 10Y still rose to 4.18%. When good news can’t push yields down, the problem isn’t inflation. It’s term premium. The market wants more compensation to hold long-duration government debt. $TLT breaking below its lower …
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.
via Phoenix Capital Research The U.S. is in very serious danger of igniting another inflationary storm. Gurus and pundits like to point to the decline in official inflation data points like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as indicating that inflation has been tamed in the U.S. What these individuals fail to tell you is that …
The world is facing a massive surge in prices, and the latest developments suggest that inflation is entering a far more dangerous phase than most people realize. Venezuela’s inflation exploded to 475 percent in 2025, the highest in the world last year. Food costs soared 532 percent, rent jumped 340 percent, and healthcare expenses skyrocketed …
The headlines say inflation is cooling. The official number now sits around 2.4% year over year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, and many economists are celebrating it as proof that price pressures are fading. But if you dig beneath that single number, something very different is happening. And it is not small. It is massive. …
By Peter Reagan The Iran conflict. At this point, even those rare individuals living in a closet without television or internet have heard about the fighting. Most people are focused on the military and political dimensions. That’s understandable. But there’s another part of the story that affects nearly every American household – and it has …
Energy is up 10-15% this year. Not 700%. This guy is just an attention seeker. No way this was energy inflation — Andrew (@andrewRD_PT_MHP) March 5, 2026
via peterplanner The World’s Most Chaotic Price Tag: Britain’s Inflation Meets a Middle East Meltdown Just when British households were hoping for a quiet year of “only mildly painful” grocery bills, the universe said no. Food prices are edging upward again, with Kantar reporting a renewed rise in grocery inflation after months of decline, and …
via notayesmanseconomics So far it has been quite a week for economic trends and markets and as I type this it is only Tuesday morning! But I wish to examine a feature that will lead to a gnashing of teeth at various central banks including my home one the Bank of England. A word it …
🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: The US has spent nearly 2 billion dollars on the war in Iran, according to estimates. pic.twitter.com/uKjI7wFMKe — Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) March 3, 2026 🚨BREAKING: JESSE WATTERS TURNS ON TRUMP “Gas prices are gonna jump. Mortgage rates are already ticking up. You're gonna see inflation.” pic.twitter.com/cHygnRCxfm — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) March 2, …
By Peter Reagan You’re smart. You already know that, when planning for the future, factoring inflation into those plans is vitally important. After all, if your plans don’t account for inflation, how do you know that you’ll actually have enough funds in your golden years to pay for even the most basic of necessities, much less …
For those arguing the GDP data "isn't that bad" due to the gov't shutdown, the ACTUAL data DISAGREES. The GDP Deflator came in at 3.6% – meaning most of the 1.4% GDP was inflation, NOT real growth. Forget the shutdown excuse. The weakness is real, and productivity is terrible. https://t.co/W13nd3nZAh pic.twitter.com/f88eUhdNRX — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) …
Wow. US Q4 GDP:+1.4% vs 2.8% exp. Government was shut down for almost half of the quarter, but relatively weak growth. pic.twitter.com/THSADgL5KR — Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) February 20, 2026 DECEMBER PCE +2.9% VS +2.8% EXPECTED CORE PCE +3.0% VS 2.9% EXPECTED highest PCE since November 2023…yeah we may not be getting this rate cut for …
Business expectations back to pre-pandemic levels. Real-time inflation? Already there: 0.90% CPI (below 1% since Feb). Expectations catching up to real-time reality. pic.twitter.com/mkNQS0DZJS — Truflation (@truflation) February 17, 2026