TraderHC
@traderhc
We’re cooking. Bonds just sold off on a clean inflation print.
Read that again. CPI came in benign. The 10Y still rose to 4.18%.
When good news can’t push yields down, the problem isn’t inflation. It’s term premium. The market wants more compensation to hold long-duration government debt.
$TLT breaking below its lower Bollinger Band on a day that should have been bullish for bonds is technically ugly. I think it sees lower this week.
Meanwhile $IWM is diverging hard from mega-caps. Down while $QQQ is green. Small caps need lower long rates to breathe, and the bond market just said no.
Next Wednesday’s FOMC is the real test. The question isn’t whether the Fed cuts. It’s whether the long end comes down even if they do.
What’s your read on the long end here?
We're cooking. Bonds just sold off on a clean inflation print.
Read that again. CPI came in benign. The 10Y still rose to 4.18%.
When good news can't push yields down, the problem isn't inflation. It's term premium. The market wants more compensation to hold long-duration…
— TraderHC (@traderhc) March 11, 2026
🚨 Record TLT Short Positioning
Once TLT bottoms and reverses, a short squeeze could be violent.
Interested in knowing when to expect a TLT bottom?
Retweet, and I'll DM you the TLT cycle projection (must follow). pic.twitter.com/tfAfgyNZwF— BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles) March 11, 2026
Christopher Aaron
@iGlobalGold
The US dollar is on the verge of a collapse.
How do we know? Because the euro, which makes up 57.6% of the dollar index, has already broken out!
Both of these charts cannot rise at the same time over the long run. Either the dollar is set to break down, or the euro has witnessed a rare false breakout. Both cannot rise together.
My take? The dollar is hanging onto its last thread of support due to “flight to safety” on Middle East fears. As soon as the inflationary effects of the war begin to be felt, the dollar should break its 18 year rising trend and begin a major leg lower.
The time to prepare is before the breakdown happens.
The US dollar is on the verge of a collapse.
How do we know? Because the euro, which makes up 57.6% of the dollar index, has already broken out!
Both of these charts cannot rise at the same time over the long run. Either the dollar is set to break down, or the euro has… pic.twitter.com/8JPh8REfY8
— Christopher Aaron (@iGlobalGold) March 11, 2026
‘SOME FORM OF CRISIS IS ALMOST INEVITABLE’: THE $38 TRILLION NATIONAL DEBT WILL SOON BE GROWING FASTER THAN THE US ECONOMY ITSELF
The United States national debt has reached a precarious milestone, hitting 100% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and placing the nation on a… pic.twitter.com/Fqmgz9B2ys
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) January 22, 2026
‘This cannot be sustainable’: The U.S. borrowed $50 billion a week for the past five months, the CBO says @gop budgeting https://t.co/vD1Fsvl29A
— Marilyn Turnage (@mturnage82) March 11, 2026
The U.S. Treasury’s borrowing showed no signs of slowing as the U.S. headed deeper into fiscal year 2026, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reporting that another $1 trillion was added to the federal deficit in the first five months of the year.
The monthly budget review from the CBO, updated to February 2026 and released yesterday, showed that the government is estimated to have borrowed $308 billion last month alone.
Of course, with more borrowing comes higher interest costs on the debt. Between October 2025 (when the 2026 fiscal year started) and February, the Treasury spent an additional $31 billion on net interest on public debt, compared to the prior year. As a result, in just five months, the Treasury forked out a total of $433 billion to service public debt, which is now nearing $38.9 trillion.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cannot-sustainable-u-borrowed-50-145204511.html