Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Japan’s 10-year yield hits 2.51%, highest since 1997; UK Gilts hit post-2008 highs… Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% but warns “higher inflation is unavoidable”… German 10-year Bund at post-2011 high as energy costs hammer Eurozone GDP… US March inflation surge (3.3%) kills hopes for a pre-summer “Pivot”… US Q1 GDP (Advance) prints at …
Hahaha imagine thinking the rally is going to continue after OpEx https://t.co/gdiXbNbu6d — Michael Bento (@MichaelPBento) April 17, 2026 What makes the stock market go vertical like this for so long..?? pic.twitter.com/qeHUT1rQM4 — American AF 🇺🇸 (@iAnonPatriot) April 17, 2026 The S&P 500 is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in nearly 150 years. …
A former Pentagon adviser said Iran is entering negotiations with higher leverage than before the war began. The U.S. spent $12 billion, struck 9,000 targets, and deployed the 82nd Airborne. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz and can threaten chaos across the entire region. That’s not the outcome the opening briefings described. Source: CNN …
10-year Treasury yields hit 4.4% for the first time since July 2025. But war, exploding debt and soaring inflation will drive yields much higher. Without big rate cuts and massive QE (a mistake), stocks and real estate will crash, resulting in a financial crisis worse than 2008. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 20, 2026 🚨 …
WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING!! Insiders are buying COMEX Gold options at $15,000 – $20,000 for December 2026. Gold is around $4,700 right now. This means THEY EXPECT THE GOLD PRICE TO TRIPLE. And if you think that’s just gambling YOU’RE COMPLETELY WRONG. Let me explain this in simple words. This position did NOT …
TraderHC @traderhc We’re cooking. Bonds just sold off on a clean inflation print. Read that again. CPI came in benign. The 10Y still rose to 4.18%. When good news can’t push yields down, the problem isn’t inflation. It’s term premium. The market wants more compensation to hold long-duration government debt. $TLT breaking below its lower …
via notayesmanseconomics Japan finds itself in a situation where it keeps making the economic news. Much of this is the result of the central planning it has employed over the years. I realise that for new readers this may be a bit of a shock, but the country that looks at times an example of …
Over 330,000 Federal employees have been fired, resigned, or retired last year and were not replaced. The Federal workforce is now at its lowest level since 1966. pic.twitter.com/cRu6x8XAS4 — Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) February 15, 2026 Based on OPM data and analyses, the reduction of ~317,000 federal employees in 2025 yields estimated annual savings of …
US asset demand shows no sign of abating. Demand for bonds rises and bond yields decline.https://t.co/MKLFCKQfrf pic.twitter.com/Y7YdQtGapA — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) February 14, 2026 NY Fed's Q4 GDP forecast now at 2.71% – getting closer to ATL Fed's 3.68% pic.twitter.com/zUGsltCT9n — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 14, 2026 Average American's weekly paycheck buys ~2% more …
Mag 7 cutting buybacks and borrowing while private credit guys talk about heavy drawdowns and yields keep grinding higher is not “AI strength,” it’s stress showing through the paint. Money isn’t cheap anymore, lenders are pulling back, and somehow people still act like companies can burn billions a quarter forever. Then you look at the …
The old bond market adage is that yields will keep rising until something breaks. In 2022/23, rising U.S. yields "broke" several banks by March 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank). Japanese yields are now at a 27-year high and going vertical. When does something "break" in Japan? pic.twitter.com/qMANhs6pIm — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) January 19, 2026 *JAPAN 40-YEAR …
Japan can’t print fast enough to save the party this time. BOJ Is Said to Start Selling ETF Holdings as Soon as January Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/m19QDzvpYS — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 16, 2026 JAPAN WILL CRASH THE MARKET IN 3 DAYS!! They’re currently sitting on $10 TRILLION in debt. Every Japanese government bond yield just hit …
People keep calling bonds “safe,” but that’s a straight-up lie. Long bonds in 2021 looked boring and secure, but inflation turned them into a nightmare. “Bonds are a safe-haven asset” is one of the biggest lies in financial markets. Bond performance is heavily dependent on the inflationary environment. – Disinflation -> bonds up– Inflation -> …
When that many people are leaning the same way, any hint of disappointment could blow up the trade and send yields swinging hard. Investors are betting Treasury yields will fall: Open interest in the US 10-year note March call options is up to a record ~171,150 contracts. These contracts pay off if 10-year Treasury prices …
Everything’s lining up for a Q1 shock. THE YEN PARADOX 82,640 contracts betting against the yen. Second highest since July 2024. The Bank of Japan just confessed this morning they have barely begun. After hiking to a 30 YEAR HIGH at 0.75 percent, the yen did not strengthen. It collapsed to 157.77. Finance Minister Katayama …
“THIS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD Look at these yields… – Germany 10Y is exploding – France 10Y keeps going up – Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece all rising together THIS ISN’T HAPPENING BY ACCIDENT. This is europe repricing sovereign risk again. Here’s exactly why it matters: Germany is still holding things together, but the rest of …
Bond markets do not scream unless something is wrong. Japan cracking at a 26 year high while France and Germany follow is not a coincidence. This is the cost of pretending debt did not matter for a decade. Once the bond vigilantes wake up, they do not go back to sleep easily. https://twitter.com/GordianKnotFinX/status/2002947193347658025 Gold hits …
via notayesmanseconomics As we approach Christmas the pace has really picked up in economics and financial markets and let me start my look at the UK with an international perspective. TOKYO (Kyodo) — The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond hit 2.020 percent on Friday, its highest level since August 1999, after the Bank …
This is how trouble sneaks in, quietly and all at once. When every major bond market starts pushing yields higher together, it means money is getting expensive everywhere, not just somewhere. Stocks can ignore that for a while, but balance sheets cannot. By the time equities notice, the damage is already baked in. A HUGE …
BOJ rate decision this week.💹 The bond market has decided for the BOJ, which is why it’s most likely they will hike rates and it would be a colossal mistake if they don’t. More importantly, the BOJ is likely to pledge continued gradual rate hikes this week. This could trigger the carry trade unwind and …
Rate cuts work. We need more of them. Then yields will go up to 20% — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) December 12, 2025 Rates barely reacted, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is now pushing on a string. The market – not policy – has the wheel. Next 3 months: 2-yr drifting toward 3.50–4.00% 10-yr …
Ladies and Gentlemens, the Shiller PE just hit its highest level in 25 years. The second most overvalued market in history. Back then rates were rising; now we're cutting. LOL Guess what happens next. pic.twitter.com/4LyzObR7Ca — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 10, 2025 Just In: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates 25bps (as expected) to …
OUCH! The bond-market sell-off is continuing, w/German 30y yields climbing to their highest level since 2011 byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts If in doubt, the answer is always higher taxes or higher inflation. THE ENDGAME HAS BEGAN byu/Visible-Title6180 inWallstreetsilver h/t sunk-capital
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate …
JAPAN’S 2-YEAR YIELD HITS 1% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2008, AND THE YEN CARRY TRADE JUST CRUMBLED OVERNIGHT. Stocks and Bitcoin mass liquidations return. pic.twitter.com/Uf3vxIsoRy — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) December 1, 2025 Japan’s bond market sent a clear signal this week. The country’s two-year government bond yield touched 1%. Its highest level since 2008. …
The Japanese carry trade has gone into reverse so it’s inevitable. Japan is in denial on debt. It's 10-year gov't bond yield is only 1.8% (blue), which looks ok, but that same yield 10-years forward is 4.0% (orange) and 20-years forward is 4.4% (red). The only certainty for Japan is that it'll have either a …
Japan's government says it may "intervene" before the Japanese Yen to US Dollar ratio reaches 160. Over the last 2 months, the Yen has gone from 145 to 157 as a $110B+ stimulus package is coming byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts I agree, but does it really solve anything for Japan? With all the helicopter money, a demographic …
via notayesmanseconomics We find ourselves in what has become a rather familiar situation for 2025 where there is pressure for lower official interest-rates, but bond yields do not play ball. We can start with the former and as so often this year President Trump is making headlines. President Donald Trump suggested he would fire Scott …
Japan is entering a phase of policy schizophrenia, balance sheet tightening without rate hikes. Markets will punish that contradiction. Expect higher yields, volatility in the yen, and stress in equity markets until the BOJ capitulates. pic.twitter.com/AvNHiU0hmh — Bobbidazzler (@DazzlerBob) September 19, 2025 When bond yields rise despite central bank rate cuts, it often signals market …
Yields up means bonds down. Treasury yields are going to skyrocket when the FED cuts rates tomorrow — Nostra, House of Gold (@Nostre_damus) September 16, 2025 U.S. Dollar now testing 14-Year Support 🚨 It's now or never pic.twitter.com/Q8RIcoZGnZ — Barchart (@Barchart) September 16, 2025 U.S. Stock Market hits its most expensive valuation in history, surpassing …