Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Will the Fed’s next move finally end the dollar’s global rule? Yields won’t and cannot be suppressed. They will keep rising until something implodes. Hope this helps. pic.twitter.com/7jzYfZQ9ac — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 12, 2025 Rates should be rising, not falling. Failing to do so will lead to serious stagflation in the future. The …
Rising JGB yields will not stay in Japan, they pull global rates higher and pressure debt-laden governments everywhere. This is the canary in the coal mine for the era of free money. Japanese yields look set to rocket. Consequence of not raising rates. Wont be long. pic.twitter.com/oiY8zuXWjO — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 8, 2025 …
When you see a guaranteed 10% dividend, you have to ask the obvious question, how are they earning it? U.S. Treasuries are yielding about 4%. Anything paying more than double that is only possible if the company is taking outsized, hidden risks. There’s no free lunch in finance, the spread above the risk free rate …
Japan’s own fiscal house, buried under the weight of the largest debt load on earth, could unravel, forcing a liquidity crisis that spreads to Europe and the United States. Central banks that copied Japan’s easy money policies will face the same reckoning, only without the cushion of a domestic savings pool to absorb the shock. …
The market is bleeding unseen. Not a crash in headlines, but a collapse in the veins of finance. Crypto isn’t falling from hacks or bans. It’s dying under the weight of bonds, under yields that spike like tidal waves, under a Fed that no longer controls the tide. Liquidity is evaporating. Numbers climb, math rules, …
The UK has no choice but to start cutting its welfare bill, this could happen here in the US. The UK faces the doom loop of rising borrowing costs, growing deficits and a government facing a lot of bad choices to raise revenues. Yields on 30-year gilts have reached their highest levels since 1998. (1 …
The system’s crumbling, gold’s at $3500, a dead canary in a coal mine. Central banks cut rates as inflation hits 3%, pure sabotage dressed up as policy. Yields at 30-year peaks shout panic, not control. They’re pumping a bubble to dodge the collapse. This isn’t economics, it’s a knife in your back. Your money’s burning …
US 2s vs 30s gap widest since 2022. Yield curves keep steepening globally, particularly driven by 30-year yields. In the US, the gap between 2-year and 30-year bond yields has reached the widest since January 2022. pic.twitter.com/elg9pKFavG — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 28, 2025 Japan's 30yr is now up almost 1ppt YTDUS 30yr +12bps pic.twitter.com/5rIOLSCFK8 …
There seems to be a lot of competition for liquidity out there from the purveyors of “risk-free” assets… — Nothing To See Here (@TylerHardt) August 26, 2025 With the BOJ stepping back, foreign capital may repatriate, U.S. and European rates rise, and emerging markets brace for currency and funding turmoil, leaving investors facing unprecedented uncertainty. …
The whole global financial system leans on a promise backed by math that doesn’t add up. Pretending these bonds are safe while ignoring the ballooning off-balance-sheet debts is the biggest confidence trick ever sold. Eventually, reality crashes the party. $1.4B Fartcoin is what you get when the "risk free" asset underpinning the entire banking & …
What’s going on here is likely a sign of rising global stress. The sharp drop in the 10 year Treasury yield alongside a spike in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) points to a flight to safety and a scramble for dollar liquidity. Normally, falling yields would weaken the dollar but when both move in opposite …
Markets flash crisis signs… Current situation: 1. Bitcoin is up +60% in 3 months like the USD is broken 2. The USD is falling in its worst start to a year since 1973 3. Gold prices are rising toward $3,400/oz like inflation is back 4. Treasury yields are rising like deficit spending is worsening 5.… …
European yields set to explode. Consequence of cutting rates inbound. Hope this helps. pic.twitter.com/iJpPDssWY2 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 2, 2025 Economic boom https://t.co/Vh9utBfYIc — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) July 2, 2025
VOO — S&P 500 tracker Yield: ~$3,900/year on $300K (roughly 1.3%) Pros Pure exposure to the top 500 U.S. companies Extremely low expense ratio (0.03%) Liquid, tax-efficient, and proven over time Long-term compounding machine with broad diversification Cons Low yield Little protection in drawdowns No active management or income focus Growth slows when the big …
Waiting to hear the narrative – falling yields are good for stocks because they will push up valuations… pic.twitter.com/7G1PW53E0c — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) June 24, 2025 MORGAN STANLEY EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER SEVEN RATE CUTS IN 2026, STARTING IN MARCH, TAKING TERMINAL RATE TO 2.5%-2.75% — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 25, 2025
CNBC: Bond king Jeff Gundlach: I wouldn’t rule out another round of QE focused on the long end if bond yields keep rising. That’s the first time I’ve heard an institutional investor mention QE during this cycle. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 18, 2025 Gundlach: If unemployment starts rising substantially the Fed will cut rates …
In 2025, the yield on longer term US Treasuries briefly rose above 5%. That might not sound dramatic at first glance, but it carries major implications for the economy, the government, and financial markets. When the cost of borrowing for the US government reaches that level, it starts to squeeze the entire system. Right now, …
April came with blood on the screen. Stocks sold off, yields surged, and the Fed kept its poker face. Retail panicked. But one group didn’t buy the dip: hedge funds. They saw the trap. Or at least they thought they did. They didn’t touch equities. Instead, they went after bonds with a vengeance. Hedge Funds …
Stocks down yields up = bad sign — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) June 2, 2025 Hedge Funds are aggressively chasing this rally now. Last week saw the largest HF buying in US Tech in 10+ years.$QQQ $NVDA $TSLA $AVGO pic.twitter.com/Gs31OtPIBp — David Marlin (@Marlin_Capital) June 2, 2025 The FED won't cut rates, inflation expecations continue to …
2/ Japan’s 30-year bond yield just hit 3.14%, an all-time high. The 40-year? A record 3.6%. Why? A failed bond auction—no one wanted the debt. That’s dangerous. https://t.co/uHGaZh41mF — Neil McCoy-Ward (@NeilMcCoyWard) May 28, 2025 4/ Meanwhile, U.S. 30-year yields breached 5% last week. That pushes up mortgage rates, car loans, and credit costs. And …
US 5-Year Note Auction High Yield 4.071% (stop through 0.4 BPS)Bid-to-Cover 2.39Sells $70 blnAwards 23.12% of bids at highPrimary dealers take 9.24%Direct 12.39%Indirect 78.37% — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) May 28, 2025 US sells $70B in 5-year notes at a high yield of 4.071%, slightly below the 4.075% when-issued level. Strong international demand with 78.4% going to …
Japan just blinked. Late last night, Japan’s Ministry of Finance said they are considering cutting back on how many super long bonds they sell. On the surface, this may sound like a dry technical tweak, but make no mistake, it sent waves through global bond markets. Here is why this matters. Fewer bonds issued means …
And still many everywhere are trying to come up with all possible nonsense narratives and excuses on why yields across the board are going down Narrator: BOJ magic money tree blossoming hard today bro 👊 https://t.co/0Kgz7WcH2W pic.twitter.com/IgHMMZOUT5 — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) May 27, 2025 Japan’s long-dated government bond yields are lower across the board https://t.co/Armcx3fNYM …
The bond market is going out of control worldwide, with long-term yields skyrocketing, and it’s not even blinking at the stock market’s recent dive. This is a big deal because it shows investors are seriously worried about debt and inflation, not just stock prices. Higher yields mean borrowing gets pricier for everyone, from governments to …
For Chris Metcalfe, chief investment officer at Kingswood Group’s IBOSS, an allocation to global emerging markets debt “makes absolute sense.” “Yes, US bonds have a more attractive starting yield than they had previously, but the reasons for that increasing yield remain and in the last few hours have become more acute,” he said. “The move …
The House has narrowly passed a sweeping Republican-backed spending bill, marking one of the most significant fiscal moves in recent history. The legislation, championed by President Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, extends the 2017 tax cuts, injects billions into defense and border security, and slashes funding for Medicaid and clean energy programs. The bill’s passage …
Yields don’t move like this unless something under the surface is breaking or already has byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts A sale of 20-year U.S. government bonds saw weak demand Wednesday, pushing the Treasuries to new lows for the year as yields climbed. https://www.barrons.com/articles/20-year-treasury-bond-auction-bba9d889 Unpopular Opinion: This market move is closer to just starting than finishing. Ask yourself …
The 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction took place today, May 21, 2025, and the results were troubling. Investors showed weak demand, forcing yields higher and triggering a broad selloff in financial markets. The 20-year yield surged to 5.047%, up from 4.810% in the previous auction, signaling growing concerns about the government’s ability to finance its …
Bank of America calling for ATH pic.twitter.com/02CKeH2VjO — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) May 20, 2025 Perhaps the real reason the Fed has been reluctant to cut interest rates is that FOMC members realize that doing so will result in long-term rates rising. Since higher long-term rates will amount to an unwarranted tightening, the best way the Fed …
BUY THE DIP AFTER MOODY’S DOWNGRADE: MORGAN STANLEY’S WILSON Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the recent U.S. stock selloff after Moody’s credit downgrade as a buying opportunity, driven more by interest rate fears than fundamentals. He notes that Moody’s is the last major agency to downgrade U.S. debt—following moves that began back in 2011. Rising …