UK gilt yields highest since 1998, deficits grow, government faces hard choices. Don’t think this can’t happen here!

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The UK has no choice but to start cutting its welfare bill, this could happen here in the US.

The U.S. Treasury just auctioned $100 billion in four-week bills — the largest short-term debt sale in history. “The Treasury said on Tuesday that it will auction $100 billion of four-week bills on Thursday, a record for the maturity and an increase of $5 billion from the previous week” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-plans-record-100-billion-154746470.html). That’s not liquidity management. That’s triage. When the government rolls debt like a payday lender, the illusion of fiscal control is already gone.

The deficit isn’t shrinking. It’s metastasizing. “The federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion over the past 12 months based on estimates from the Congressional Budget Office” (https://www.crfb.org/blogs/12-month-rolling-deficit-20-trillion-april-2025). That’s 6.9% of GDP — a number that used to trigger alarm bells. Now it barely registers. The government spent $7.1 trillion and brought in $5.1 trillion. That’s not a gap. That’s a crater. And it’s widening. The math isn’t fuzzy. It’s fatal.

“United States’ national debt has officially soared past $36.2 trillion, and with the recent passage of President Trump’s ambitious ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ fiscal analysts warn that the total could climb to $40 trillion by the end of 2025” (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/with-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-debt-could-hit-40-trillion-in-2025-heres-why-that-matters/articleshow/122252072.cms

Debt-to-GDP: 120% by 2035. “CRFB projects that the national debt held by the public will rise from about 100% of GDP in 2025 to 120% of GDP by 2035.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-debt-set-to-surge-to-120-of-gdp-as-federal-deficits-spiral-over-next-decade-under-new-projections/ar-AA1LeSBT

 

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