Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Credit card delinquency rates among borrowers under 35 reached 8.2 percent in Q1 according to new Federal Reserve data. This is the highest level since 2009 for that age group. High interest rates and cost of living pressures are the main contributors. Banks are tightening lending standards in response to the rise. The economy is …
Buyers finally get a breather as the everything bubble in housing starts to leak air. Meanwhile, the home price-to-income ratio is still very, very high. pic.twitter.com/kafzqXrATR — 𝙨𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙤𝙫𝙖𝙠 (@sortovak) May 6, 2026 The Fed/BLS have a CPI Shelter measurement problem. Rents have been rolling over for years too. pic.twitter.com/81bbHx7RsX — remi (@remi427707) May 6, 2026 …
Budget carriers pin their collapse on skyrocketing fuel tied straight to Middle East conflict. JetBlue is now formally warning us of a potential bankruptcy as fuel costs continue to skyrocket due to the Trump war. One analysis put their odds of filing for bankruptcy at 75%. Frontier is also on Bankruptcy watch with the same …
Axios is reporting that Washington and Tehran are on the verge of signing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) to officially end the hostilities that began in February. This isn’t a final treaty, but a “30-day framework” designed to hold a ceasefire while the technical teams hammer out the fine print in Islamabad or …
For the first time in recorded history, more Americans have moved to EU+EFTA+UK countries than Europeans to US byu/Krankenitrate inInfographics h/t kaminaripancake
Notice, this never lasts. Homes are CURRENTLY priced at 2.75% mortgage rates. https://t.co/Qp5Z1P2x0l — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 2, 2026 We are living through one of the largest artificially inflated real estate bubbles in history. Zero rates. Massive stimulus. Record speculation. Now the unwind begins. pic.twitter.com/GldAUS1HeJ — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) May 3, 2026 Housing supply …
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US national debt surpasses size of the entire United States GDP for first time since World War II. pic.twitter.com/15fcysvCep — Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 30, 2026 DEBT TOPS 100% OF GDP WASHINGTON—The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, on the way toward breaking the record …
Reporters Without Borders: Global media freedom in “Severe” freefall… Only 1% of world population now lives in countries with “Strong” press freedom… Shadow over the Web: Russia creates “Censorship Council” to purge domestic internet… China mandate: Commercial drone owners in Beijing must now register with police… In 2002, 20% of the world lived in a …
by Michael Every single day that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the damage that is being done to the global economy is getting even worse. But the full consequences of the global oil crisis that we are facing will not be felt for a while because nations all over the globe are still running …
Same pattern as the early 80s where costs spiked and an entire generation got locked out of building wealth for years. WASHINGTON, D.C. — The share of U.S. non-homeowners who expect to buy a home within five years has dropped to 25%, the lowest Gallup has measured in seven readings since it began asking the …
One of these is not like the rest. Almost unbelievable to see the VIX declining amidst every other commodity booming and so much uncertainty in global trade. Do you guys think any developments here could cause a serious VIX spike? h/t North_Teacher_7522
Long-bond yields see largest one-day jump in weeks as inflation fears bake in… 3 p.m. ET Data Talk: 10-Year yield climbs to 4.33% as bond prices tumble… Market signal: Investors dumping long-term debt as “indefinite war” risk persists… Bessent-Šefčovič readout: US and EU lock arms on “Critical Minerals Action Plan”… https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
Investors are cashing-in massive profits from the oil trade: The United States Oil ETF, $USO, has posted -$900 million in outflows so far in April, on track for its largest monthly withdrawal since the 2009 record of -$1.2 billion. Still, the ETF is up +2% month-to-date, after rising as much as +100% from January to …
by Michael We live at a time when most people don’t know where their food comes from, and so they have no idea that we are facing an agricultural nightmare in 2026. Yesterday, I published an article about the historic drought that is devastating our heartland and the nightmarish fertilizer crisis that has been caused by the …
JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japan has officially lifted restrictions on weapons exports that had been in place since World War II. Under the new policy, Japan will be able to sell heavy weapons such as tanks, missiles, and warships to countries with which it has defense cooperation agreements. pic.twitter.com/5CxnjOKUXq — War Radar (@War_Radar2) April 21, 2026 …
The housing market is running out of buyers: There were an estimated 46.3% more home sellers than buyers in February 2026, the biggest difference since Redfin data began in 2013. This gap has widened sharply from 29.8% a year ago, marking the strongest market for buyers in over a decade. By comparison, there were a …
This is what you should be looking at. pic.twitter.com/BPr4C3u7Fl — Travis Rothell (@TRothell62855) April 20, 2026 Nearly 40% of Americans said they have less than $500 in cash savings. pic.twitter.com/3ek6LlBGQ3 — DARWIN (@D4RW1NEXE) April 14, 2026 Nearly 40% of Americans have less than $500 in cash savings, survey shows Nearly 40% of Americans said that …
S&P 500 hits new all-time high as investors shrug off Iran war oil price spike The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high Wednesday, a remarkable turnaround for the broad-based stock index while the war with Iran continues and rising energy costs threaten global growth prospects. The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.8% pushing the …
The entire global LNG map rewired in 30 days. The flows did not collapse. They rerouted straight to American exporters. And nobody has mapped what this means. In February, Qatar shipped 8.4 billion cubic meters of LNG to Europe. In March, after Iranian retaliation strikes destroyed two liquefaction trains and the gas-to-liquids facility at Ras …
She explained it all. Maybe this is just facts? pic.twitter.com/XfQIiDuN7f — Mr Grey (@Mel_ceee) April 14, 2026 JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Cost of raising a child in the US to age 18 is now over $303,000, up 28% since 2023. — Remarks (@remarks) April 14, 2026 Americans have never been this pessimistic about their financial situation: …
All-time high since 1978.Last time it was close: 1980. Stagflation. Fed had to go to 20%.This time Fed can’t. $39T won’t allow it.Different era. Same pain. — Takul (@TakulMacro) April 13, 2026 Consumer sentiment hits record low, inflation fears rise amid Iran war Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted …
The Federal workforce is smaller today than at any point since 1966. h/t amogusdevilman
BREAKING: The Bank of Japan’s total assets fell -$98 billion in Q1 2026, to $4.14 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2020. Since the Q1 2024 peak, the BoJ has reduced its balance sheet by -$590 billion, or -12.6%. Japanese government bond holdings fell -$84 billion in Q1, the largest quarterly decline since QT began. This …
Trump’s ridiculous, grandiose promise tells us something about the federal government’s fiscal affairs and the president’s approach to policy. Ten years ago today, Donald Trump said he would pay off the national debt in the span of just eight years. That did not happen. Instead, the gross national debt has doubled since that day—from about …
NEW WOLRD ORDER 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 While no one was looking China has DUMPED U.S. treasuries to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. They’ve HALVED their holdings from $1.3T to $650B. At the same time they have been super-accumulating the lifeblood of the NEW system… Gold. pic.twitter.com/kT3jjQdYOt — ADAM (@AdameMedia) April 6, 2026 💥💥💥 …
No one in this country wants this. https://t.co/Qgxt3DV2CY — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 4, 2026 Reporter: What’s the plan to bring gas prices down? Trump: All I have to do is leave Iran and we’ll be doing that very soon. pic.twitter.com/P7wRIeKT2n — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 4, 2026 If the U.S. destroys Iran's powergrid, Iran destroys …
Social Security is the nation’s largest social insurance program, making payments to approximately 75 million Americans every month. Yet the program faces an imminent funding shortfall. Social Security’s trust fund for retirement benefits may run out in 2032, which could prompt an across-the-board benefit cut, according to projections from the Social Security Administration and Congressional …
UBS freezing withdrawals for up to three years and firms like Apollo and BlackRock putting limits in place is not normal market behavior, that is liquidity stress showing itself in real time. People keep comparing this to 2008 like it is a straight repeat, it is not the same structure, but the core problem feels …
Reporter’s summation of today’s episode from Frontline Africa news podcast: Five things you should take away from this episode. The number one thing is that this is now a four-front war. Iran from the east, Hezbollah from the north, the Houthis from Yemen in the south, the Iraqi militias hitting American targets across the Middle …
https://t.co/d5kFiX7b1O — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) March 24, 2026