S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high of $7,000 right in the middle of the worst energy crisis in decades. Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P has made new all-time highs in 11 days or fewer after falling 5-10%.

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S&P 500 hits new all-time high as investors shrug off Iran war oil price spike

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high Wednesday, a remarkable turnaround for the broad-based stock index while the war with Iran continues and rising energy costs threaten global growth prospects.

The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.8% pushing the benchmark past its previous record high of 7,002.28, which it had notched Jan. 28. The index closed at 7,022.95.

U.S. equity markets have been on a roller coaster since the start of the year. After its January high, the S&P 500 plunged 9.8% to a low of 6,316.91 on March 30, driven by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and the soaring price of oil.

But in the two weeks since, markets appear to have adjusted to the constant uncertainty of the war.

“As far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said.

“It has also been another momentum-led rebound, similar to last year’s explosive rally that started on April 9, when President Donald Trump postponed his Liberation Day tariffs,” Yardeni said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-hits-new-high-iran-war-rcna331900





Markets are training people to think crashes don’t happen anymore.

That’s how the riskiest setups take shape.

In 1929, investors thought prosperity would last for good. During the dot-com bubble, they thought technology had rewritten the old rules. Today, the story has changed, but the pattern hasn’t. Every shock feels brief. Every dip gets bought. Liquidity is expected to show up before any real damage sets in.

After a while, that repetition changes how people act.

They stop taking downside seriously. They stop hedging. They start brushing off volatility like it means nothing, instead of seeing it for what it is, a warning sign.

The market isn’t getting rid of crash risk. It’s dulling fear and teaching participants to look past it.

That’s why the next real break, whenever it comes, hits harder than most expect.

This is another factor driving the melt-up:

Deutsche Bank has been circulating a chart that they claim shows the typical market impact of “geopolitical events” since 1939.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rocky-start-classic-geopolitical-playbook-133900729.html

Basically what they are saying is that ALL geopolitical events follow the “average” market path.

Which is statistical data mining bull shit.

The event this oil shock most resembles is the 1974 oil shock caused when OPEC embargoed oil to the U.S. and other countries, for assisting Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur war.

In this chart you will see that the 1974 oil shock led to the worst bear market of the 1970s. Peak to trough the Dow lost -45% of its value:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%931974_stock_market_crash

Too bad it’s not 1974. People are A LOT dumber now than they were back then.

https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/2044457084276584513