Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
CEO of Saudi Aramco warned today that the “war premium” is here to stay… Investors told to prepare for a supply-demand gap that could last until 2027… Even if the shooting stops today, damage to tanker routes will take years to mend… Aramco is maxing out production but can’t teleport oil past a blockade… World …
President Trump touched down in China this morning for a critical three-day summit… The meeting was delayed for weeks as the U.S.-Iran conflict reached a deadly peak… Trump told reporters Xi is a “tremendous guy” but says Taiwan is “on the table”… The White House aims to pressure Beijing to stop “friendly” ship transits through …
Per Israeli Channel 12, Israel has conveyed a message to the U.S. advocating for a decisive shift in objective. Israeli officials are urging the U.S. to prioritize the complete destruction of Iran’s energy infrastructure as the move that breaks the current stalemate. The Israeli position, as relayed by these sources, suggests the operation could be …
Energy titan Shell reports Q1 earnings of $6.9 billion, far exceeding analyst expectations of $5 billion… Climate campaigners and UK lawmakers attack the “obscene” windfall generated by the spike in global oil prices… The profit surge is directly linked to the Iran-Hormuz conflict which pushed Brent crude toward $120 in April… Shell’s stock rises in …
ISM manufacturing prices paid index spiked to 84.6 points in April, a 4-year high. Over the last 3 months, prices paid have SKYROCKETED over 20 points, marking one of the biggest spikes in history. Meanwhile, the employment index dropped to 46.4 points, the lowest level in 2026. Employment has now been contracting for 15 months …
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Total Personal Outlays jump $195B in single month as utility and fuel bills spike… Savings Rate craters to 3.6%; consumers “burning through” cash to maintain lifestyle… Wall Street Reacts: Nasdaq futures drop 200 points on “Higher for Much Longer” reality… Bond Market Carnage: 10-year Treasury yield breaches 4.85% as “Pivot” narrative dies… Stats from today’s …
It is also creating a huge spilled oil mess in the Black Sea. Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery is now burning out of control this morning after an overnight Ukrainian drone raid. Locals report that additional oil storage tanks exploded. pic.twitter.com/PN6YwLkQ3j — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 28, 2026 Water supply has been suspended in Tuapse after a …
So we decided to go to war with a nation that can use a choke point as a weapon… That's true, Iran has realized that the Strait of Hormuz is no less powerful than a Nuclear weapon for them. pic.twitter.com/iuNssClZrT — BhaIndiStani (@BhaIndiStani) April 27, 2026
President Donald Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act to speed deployment of what the White House considers some of the most constrained segments of U.S. energy infrastructure, such as grid equipment, pipelines and liquefied natural gas systems, considering them critical to national defense. Published April 23 in the Federal Register, the determinations authorize the …
“Sweden may need to restrict how much energy its citizens can use” – PM 🚨Energy lockdowns will be called “state energy rationing” in Sweden. “We cannot rule out state rationing,” said PM Ulf Kristersson. Decoupling from Russian energy has dire consequences and euphemistic names. 👇 https://t.co/jSggDPqzpZ — Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) April 23, 2026 According to …
Russia has removed Kazakh crude oil from its May delivery schedule through the Druzhba pipeline, directly threatening supplies to Germany’s PCK Schwedt refinery — a facility located 100 kilometres from Berlin that provides approximately 90 percent of fuel to the German capital and its northeastern region. Moscow cited reduced technical capacity following Ukrainian drone strikes …
EU energy commissioner warned this morning that even if the Iran war ended today the energy crisis could last years with jet fuel shortages grounding routes and diesel next in line plus potential catastrophic economic fallout beyond energy. The best case scenario still means years of tight energy supply. PROLONGED ENERGY CRISIS AHEAD, EU WARNS …
Defense Production Act, April 20th 2026. 3 massive Presidential Determinations. All Signed simultaneously. ⛽ Petroleum & large scale energy infrastructure 🔥 Natural gas, LNG transmission, processing & storage 🪨 Coal supply chains & baseload power generation What this actually unlocks: 💰 Federal money pumped directly into fossil fuel supply chains 📋 Priority government contracting, overnight …
Ken Griffin of Citadel has said there is an energy price shock occurring across the world. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 20, 2026 AI BOOM WON’T AUTOMATICALLY MEAN RATE CUTS Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh argues an AI-driven productivity surge could allow lower interest rates without stoking inflation. Economist Ed Yardeni disagrees. While also bullish on …
Another coincidence… Massive fire reported at the Dos Bocas Refinery in Tabasco, Mexico 🇲🇽 9th April, 2026.Are you a coincidence theorist ?The world’s energy and oil refinery infrastructure is being targeted by those who want to inflict energy lockdowns on us all. pic.twitter.com/o4FnonxGHU — Andrew Bridgen (@ABridgen) April 16, 2026
S&P 500 hits new all-time high as investors shrug off Iran war oil price spike The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high Wednesday, a remarkable turnaround for the broad-based stock index while the war with Iran continues and rising energy costs threaten global growth prospects. The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.8% pushing the …
The entire global LNG map rewired in 30 days. The flows did not collapse. They rerouted straight to American exporters. And nobody has mapped what this means. In February, Qatar shipped 8.4 billion cubic meters of LNG to Europe. In March, after Iranian retaliation strikes destroyed two liquefaction trains and the gas-to-liquids facility at Ras …
Hormuz is blocked And Europe’s answer? “The cheapest energy is the one you don’t use.” Ursula von der Leyen Australia said it first. Now Brussels is saying it. Translation: we have no plan. While the world scrambles for supply: 🇺🇸 US: record crude exports, 121 tankers inbound 🇦🇷 Argentina: Vaca Muerta pumping 847K bpd 🇷🇺 …
This started as U.S. vs Iran… now it’s slowly turning into a U.S. vs China situation, and that’s where things get risky. Follow the oil and it makes sense. China depends on Hormuz for ~40% of its oil and 30% of LNG, so it’s not sitting back. They’ve already sent warships from Djibouti, parked destroyers …
via notayesmanseconomics The present crisis in the Middle East has affected Japan in two main ways. The first is via its position as a large energy importer. You can look at Japan as importing energy ( and other commodity resources) to produce goods in exchange and in that model the terms of trade have moved …
by Martin Armstrong Greece JOINS Ireland Protests… Farmers RISE against the Brussels Globalist Tyrants bullying their people into poverty and suicide. The peasants have had ENOUGH of the Parasitic EU Empire. Europe is on FIREThey HATE the EUThey HATE Ursula Von Der LIAR pic.twitter.com/sPdjbUgkJ9 — Liz Churchill (@liz_churchill10) April 7, 2026 Greece has already moved …
Pro-Iranian hackers have breached critical U.S. infrastructure, according to a joint warning issued Tuesday by several federal agencies. The advisory came only hours ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline for Iran, warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran refuses to open the Hormuz Strait to oil traffic. Trump later suspended the …
🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz reality check, early April, even after Trump’s ceasefire: – Vessel traffic has dropped to single digits per day.– Iran now has total control: obstructing passages at will and charging vessels millions of dollars in fees to get through.– Crude oil prices… https://t.co/MHTCeXqfrE pic.twitter.com/E79Jb4xXDq — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 9, 2026 Here’s …
by Martin Armstrong Europe is now removing any doubt about the seriousness of this crisis, because governments do not tell millions of people to stay home from work unless there is a genuine shortage forming beneath the surface. The European Union has begun urging citizens to work from home, drive less, reduce speed limits, and cut …
IRAN JUST OFFERED EUROPE A HORMUZ DEAL. YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨 On the surface: Iran offered the EU transit access through the Strait of Hormuz. Sounds like a small diplomatic move. Standard geopolitics. It is not. This is a goddamn financial nuclear bomb. Let that sink in. 💀 The Hormuz …
let me tell you what just happened because most people are missing what Iran actually did.. for 47 years, closing the Strait of Hormuz was Iran’s biggest threat.. they said it in 1987.. they said it in 2012.. they said it again and again.. and they never did it.. because the threat was more powerful …
The EU has just told citizens to “travel less” as it prepares for prolonged energy shortages from the Strait of Hormuz closure. JP Morgan’s timeline shows the final pre-closure oil shipments in the coming days. Dutch gas storage is already at a historic low of 5.8%, EU fishing fleets are tying up because diesel is …
Today global leaders are addressing their nations about heightened geopolitical tensions and critical energy and security issues. ✅President Donald Trump ✅UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer ✅ Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ✅ India’s Narendra Modi chairs security meeting These corrupt leaders have CREATED the crisis. Now they’ll use it to TRY to lock us down …