Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
By Brandon Smith The last time global energy markets witnessed a shock similar to what we might see this year was during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. Tensions were escalating in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War when the Arab Coalition launched a surprise attack against Israel. OPEC nations joined forces to cut off …
Energy stocks are making history: The US Energy Select Sector Index has gained for 14 consecutive weeks, the longest streak on record. The index has rallied +43% over that stretch byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
This is the end of the petrodollar The deal was that the US would provide the GCC ruling families with military support. In exchange, the ruling families promised to sell their oil in USD and recycle their vast surpluses into US assets. This was crucial for the US, as it had just defaulted on the …
U.S. gasoline hits $4 per gallon, highest since 2022, as Iran war drives up fuel prices U.S. gasoline prices have surged above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, as the oil supply shock triggered by the Middle East war rapidly drives up costs for families. Prices at the pump …
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building. Key levels to watch: • First resistance: 95–100 • Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level) What’s interesting is the sequence: Precious metals moved first. Then industrial metals followed. Energy came next. Now it’s agriculture’s turn. This rotation across commodities …
Originally published on my Substack. Fertilizer is getting stuck in transit, with shipments piling up on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz and plants in India, Algeria, and Slovakia shutting down or slowing while China restricts exports. Australian wheat farmers are planting less. U.S. corn and soy farmers are asking President Trump for …
by Michael Are we really going to go through this again? It appears that the Iranians are absolutely determined to keep traffic through the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed until they get what they want. In order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an absolutely massive military operation would be required, and perhaps we will see …
• Energy strikes: President Donald Trump said the US will hold off on targeting Iranian energy sites another 10 days as “talks are ongoing” with Tehran. The pause on strikes had been set to expire Friday. • Latest on the negotiations: Trump has insisted that it’s up to Iranian leaders to convince him to halt …
by Michael We have reached an unprecedented moment in human history. If this war with Iran continues for an extended period of time, we will be facing the greatest energy disruption in human history and the greatest food production disruption in human history simultaneously. Many were hoping that Iran would agree to the Trump administration’s …
The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency amid the uncertainty in global energy markets. It’s more exposed to surging oil prices and tightening fuel supply because of the Iran war compared to its Southeast Asian peers. @haslindatv explains https://t.co/pdoIkRb05c pic.twitter.com/2WMnexAoXe — Bloomberg (@business) March 25, 2026 The Philippines just threw up the red flag …
BREAKING: Iran has “tightened control” over the Strait of Hormuz and is now demanding detailed crew, cargo, and voyage information from ships seeking safe passage. Details include: 1. Approvals for ships seeking to pass through the Strait of Hormuz are being handled by the IRGC 2. Tolls to pass through have hit $2 million, mainly …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought us our first update on the economic situation in the Euro after the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East. It comes from a source which we know that European Central Bank or ECB policymakers follow closely with both President Christine Lagarde and Dr. Isabel Schnabel frequently referring …
BREAKING: President Trump just told 450 million Europeans: sign my deal by Thursday or I cut your gas. And if you think this is impulsive, you are not paying attention. This is the most calculated energy play in American history. Qatar’s LNG is offline. Force Majeure. Ras Laffan shut after Iranian drones hit it on …
US and ISR today has hit Iran energy sites connected to the power grid. This is it. The global economy is done. byu/Former_Rush1821 inconspiracy US-Israeli strikes hit Iranian energy infrastructure hours after Trump announced a pause, raising questions over stated de-escalation efforts. Key Developments Iran says US-Israeli strikes targeted energy facilities in Isfahan and Khorramshahr. …
Trump administration announces deal with TotalEnergies to redirect investment in wind to oil and gas instead As a fuel crisis triggered by the war in Iran drives up global fossil fuel prices, the Trump administration has announced it will pay French energy major TotalEnergies $1bn to kill plans to construct wind farms off the US …
Footage is from March 4th No blackouts, no energy infrastructure strikes tonight. — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 23, 2026 🔴عـــــــــاجل 😱قصف امريكي على مدينة طهران،مستهدفا قطاع الطاقة، وخروج كهرباء مدية طهران عن الخدمة pic.twitter.com/1MVNvQk9a8 — الأحداث الإيرانية (@WMX_MEDIA) March 22, 2026
Israel’s military spokesman said the country expects weeks more of fighting against Iran and Hezbollah. The spokesman added that authorities are examining how air defence systems failed to intercept incoming Iranian missiles during Saturday’s attacks. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603220618 Israel endorses Trump’s ultimatum and is calling for broad strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, KAN News reports. — ILRedAlert (@ILRedAlert) …
The Trump administration will lift sanctions on Iranian oil stranded at sea under a one month license, while the president looks to seize Iranian nuclear materials. The pause, which applies to Iranian oil loaded on ships as of Friday and is set to end on April 19, comes as the White House tries to bring …
It’s all part of the strategy of keeping stability in energy prices while winning the operation. — Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) March 20, 2026 We knew Iran would close Hormuz to drive up the price of oil. We will unsanction Iran oil to drive the price back down. CHECKMATE!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/miNFJcjccw — Alex Christoforou (@AXChristoforou) …
WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING!! Insiders are buying COMEX Gold options at $15,000 – $20,000 for December 2026. Gold is around $4,700 right now. This means THEY EXPECT THE GOLD PRICE TO TRIPLE. And if you think that’s just gambling YOU’RE COMPLETELY WRONG. Let me explain this in simple words. This position did NOT …
This is why I don't just watch the index.$XLE Energy has been grinding higher all year. A big part of that? Oil spiking on geopolitical risk. That's been the fuel.$XLF Financials, the opposite. Broke its trendline, selling off hard, sitting near the lows. The question worth… pic.twitter.com/WqwP0g9dus — Mike (@MarketMike) March 19, 2026
UAE JUST WENT TO ZERO. NO ONE IS F*CKING READY FOR THIS. The UAE — third biggest OPEC producer — just announced its oil and gas production is at ZERO. This is not a headline from a movie. Fujairah terminal: shut down.Shah gas field: suspended after drone attack.Hormuz: 20… — 🇦🇪 Rami Al-Hashimi رامي الهاشمي …
Taiwan faces severe energy shortages, with only 11 days of reserves left due to halted Gulf shipments and U.S. delivery failures, heightening its strategic vulnerability to such proposals. https://t.co/sfkuPQEeVJ — Canadian Prepper (@PrepperCanadian) March 18, 2026 Taiwan imports ~97% of its total energy. Under current reserve levels, Taiwan could sustain national energy consumption for about …
"To date, we've struck over 7,000 targets across Iran and its military infrastructure… Today will be the largest strike package yet," says @SecWar. "Our capabilities continue to build; Iran's continue to degrade. We're hunting and striking death and destruction from above." pic.twitter.com/veaFnlQBEZ — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 19, 2026 No matter what Trump does …
ISRAEL JUST MADE THE SINGLE MOST DANGEROUS MILITARY DECISION OF THE ENTIRE WAR. AND NOBODY UNDERSTANDS WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨🚨🚨 Israel and the U.S. struck South Pars — the LARGEST gas field on the planet. But here’s what they either didn’t know or didn’t care about: South Pars is jointly managed by Iran AND …
by Michael Prior to the war with Iran, the world had more than enough oil and gas, and as a result it was very inexpensive. Now we have transitioned into a time when that is no longer true at all. Both sides in this war are now specifically targeting oil and gas infrastructure, and that …
Brits must brace for energy RATIONING as Middle East chaos causes shortages, ex-No10 expert warns https://t.co/wcNsfx6Ee3 — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 16, 2026 Brits were today warned they must brace for energy rationing as the Middle East crisis continues. Former No10 energy expert Nick Butler said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by …
Warships are well-protected but the tankers that carry the actual petroleum are not. They’re massive, heavy, and slow. That’s a problem. But I’m sure certain geniuses have considered all contingencies and have the beginnings of the makings of a plan, you know, just for fun. — GRIM (@Goobers32583119) March 16, 2026
The Trump administration has now temporarily allowed Russian oil already at sea to be sold, freeing roughly 100–128 million barrels into the market. Oil had surged past $100 per barrel in the past week because of disruptions from the Iran war, blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on tankers. The move may …
Camera man catches athletes sponsored by Monster Energy Drink dumping out the cans and filling them with water before shooting They won’t even drink the product they’re promoting, they fill it with water “I don’t think they meant to air this” This same thing happens at extreme sporting events like X Games, skateboarding and BMX …