Originally published on my Substack.
Fertilizer is getting stuck in transit, with shipments piling up on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz and plants in India, Algeria, and Slovakia shutting down or slowing while China restricts exports.
Australian wheat farmers are planting less. U.S. corn and soy farmers are asking President Trump for relief.
Oil is moving through the same choke point, with rising prices tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping tensions, while Brent crude pushes higher in live trading.
Oil prices were higher on Friday after two Chinese ships were prevented from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that Iran continues to block traffic through the vital sea route.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery rose 2.82% to $111.06 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with May delivery also advanced 2.68% to $97.01.
Two ultra large container vessels owned by China Ocean Shipping Company tried to pass through the Strait but were turned back, according to the ship tracking firm MarineTraffic. China is an ally of Iran and the Islamic Republic has previously said friendly ships can pass through the Strait.
Russia is now supplying more than 40% of India’s oil.
The panic buying of fuel is spreading everywhere quickly across Asia right now.
Australia is down to two refineries and relying on imported fuel. South Korea and Singapore are limiting exports. Thailand is seeing panic buying.
A Kremlin nuclear warning lands on top of it.
Donald Trump could spark a “nuclear conflict” in the Middle East with the “biggest war” yet to come, warned the Kremlin.
The former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev — now a senior security official — claimed Trump had made a “gross” strategic error in taking on Iran.
Gulf states could respond to the crisis by seeking their own “nuclear shield”, dramatically increasing the risk of a wider conflict, he predicted.
Medvedev warned: “The likelihood of a nuclear conflict there, unfortunately, has increased as a result of this unprovoked, extremely dangerous war that the United States has started.”
We are heading into a very serious global problem.