Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
CEO of Saudi Aramco warned today that the “war premium” is here to stay… Investors told to prepare for a supply-demand gap that could last until 2027… Even if the shooting stops today, damage to tanker routes will take years to mend… Aramco is maxing out production but can’t teleport oil past a blockade… World …
TikTok is still wigging out over food prices. I can’t believe how expensive certain things are in this video: pic.twitter.com/zFw0I2mKaC — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 5, 2026
The HSBC factory index climbed to 54.7 in April, but the celebration is muted, the Iran war has officially turned global production into a cost-push nightmare… Input costs are rising at the second-fastest rate in four years, the shipping blockade is forcing firms to choose between eating the bill or passing it to the consumer… …
The meme stock king is attempting a massive pivot, GameStop disclosed a 5% stake in eBay today, proposing an all cash and stock buyout… eBay shares surged 5.6% on the news, GameStop shares fell 4%, investors weigh the reality of a brick and mortar retailer swallowing a digital giant… Ryan Cohen’s latest gambit aims to …
Japan’s 10-year yield hits 2.51%, highest since 1997; UK Gilts hit post-2008 highs… Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% but warns “higher inflation is unavoidable”… German 10-year Bund at post-2011 high as energy costs hammer Eurozone GDP… US March inflation surge (3.3%) kills hopes for a pre-summer “Pivot”… US Q1 GDP (Advance) prints at …
Same pattern as the early 80s where costs spiked and an entire generation got locked out of building wealth for years. WASHINGTON, D.C. — The share of U.S. non-homeowners who expect to buy a home within five years has dropped to 25%, the lowest Gallup has measured in seven readings since it began asking the …
#URGENT THIS IS A FULL-BLOWN OIL SHOCK 14.5 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY — WIPED OUT. GONE. The Gulf isn’t just disrupted… it’s crippled. Crude production has COLLAPSED by a staggering 57% in April, and even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, recovery won’t be quick. 💣 Goldman Sachs warns: “FULL RESTORATION COULD TAKE MONTHS.” Here’s …
By Peter Reagan At the moment, there’s a strange disconnect between the growing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the fact that, for most Americans, life still feels normal. Gas prices did surge, but they’ve stabilized during the two months since the conflict began. Store shelves are still stocked. Most people can go about …
Pablo Galante Escobar, the head of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Vitol, warned the audience at the FT Commodities Summit earlier today that the “world is on borrowed time” and that the Gulf energy shock will develop into a food crisis unless LNG flows resume through the Hormuz chokepoint. “We are on borrowed time. Every …
Ken Griffin of Citadel has said there is an energy price shock occurring across the world. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 20, 2026 AI BOOM WON’T AUTOMATICALLY MEAN RATE CUTS Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh argues an AI-driven productivity surge could allow lower interest rates without stoking inflation. Economist Ed Yardeni disagrees. While also bullish on …
Liquidity is so thin in US financial system that banks had to borrow ~10bn$ from the FED standing repo facility to buffer the impact of “Tax Day” – amazing pic.twitter.com/S6zQe6x2RG — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) April 15, 2026 2008: US Treasury reports no systemic risk in Subprime Mortgage Lending — Mista Indigo (@Cheekybaua) April 15, 2026 …
BREAKING : Trump gets massive SHOCK from China, big victory for 🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez 🇺🇸 Trump –– "We will cut all the trade ties with Spain because they didn't support me against Iran" *Exactly after 36 hours* 🇨🇳 Xi Jinping –– 🔥 "Spain is standing on the right side of the… pic.twitter.com/CrdJpw723o — Amock_ (@Amockx2022) …
by Doditty6567 People keep pointing to the front month of Brent being around 102 dollars and acting like the market has already priced this in and has it under control. I do not believe it does. To be precise, I do not believe in the screen price we are seeing. I am talking about the …
With talks between the US and Iran falling apart, there will be renewed focus this week on the Strait of Hormuz, getting it open and restoring traffic. Nearly all the focus so far as been on the energy part of the trade equation, the amount crude oil being able to transit the bottleneck. But there …
More pain for the Bay Area tech sector as another company announces layoffs — this time a staggering 23% of the workforce. The San Mateo action-based camera maker GoPro will let nearly a quarter of its workforce around the world go by the second quarter of 2026, according to a filing with the Securities and …
WARNING: THE NEXT WEEK WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING! Goldman Sachs says the biggest oil supply shock in history has NOT hit the system yet. Read that again. THE BIGGEST OIL SUPPLY SHOCK IN HISTORY And markets are NOT pricing what comes next. That’s why this chart matters so much. Crude stocks still look fine. But oil …
Angel investor Simon Dixon explains how the U.S. economy Ponzi scheme is approaching imminent collapse: “[This] is an absolute disaster.” “The only solution [now] is to print more money than Covid… more money than the global financial crisis.” “[The U.S. needs] to roll over $7 trillion of debt at either 4.5% or 5%.” This clip …
JP Morgan analysts mapped out how the Hormuz closure may unfold over the world. The red lines are oil from the Persian Gulf. Asia: April 1. Europe: April 10. North America: April 15. Australia: April 20. This is a game to see who blinks first. JP Morgan analysts mapped out how the Hormuz closure may …
Warren Buffett spoke on buying stocks if he knew a world war would happen and his answer may shock you… Worth the minute to watch. Buffett is bullish on stocks, regardless of geopolitical turmoil. In fact, he thinks it is better time than normal to buy stocks. pic.twitter.com/POA2BYPRra — Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) …
BREAKING: Europe spent four years escaping Russian gas. It cut dependence from 40 percent to under 10 percent. It built LNG terminals. It signed long-term contracts with Qatar. It celebrated energy independence. Then America bombed Iran. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar declared force majeure. And European gas prices nearly doubled in a month. …
Originally published on my Substack. Fertilizer is getting stuck in transit, with shipments piling up on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz and plants in India, Algeria, and Slovakia shutting down or slowing while China restricts exports. Australian wheat farmers are planting less. U.S. corn and soy farmers are asking President Trump for …
Liquidations, not mere selling. There’s more going on behind the scenes than you think. Critical metals being liquidated means a growing worldwide dollar problem. Possibly a big one. While central bankers are running around talking about rate hikes because they wrongly believe oil prices are inflationary, where it actually matters we’re already seeing the total …
WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING!! Insiders are buying COMEX Gold options at $15,000 – $20,000 for December 2026. Gold is around $4,700 right now. This means THEY EXPECT THE GOLD PRICE TO TRIPLE. And if you think that’s just gambling YOU’RE COMPLETELY WRONG. Let me explain this in simple words. This position did NOT …
The egg on your plate this morning was made from corn. Not literally. But the hen that laid it ate roughly two pounds of feed for every dozen eggs she produced. That feed was primarily corn and soybean meal. The corn was grown with nitrogen fertiliser at $610 per ton on the CBOT March settlement. …
Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. An oil shock is quickly solved by non-OPEC supply, alternatives, and flexible systems. LNG is only 15% of the total gas market but very tight in supply and much more challenging to… pic.twitter.com/vCf5mQJAA0 — Daniel Lacalle …
The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100 ✓ Central bankers focused on inflation, the wrong risk ✓ …
by Michael If commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed for months, we will witness a global food crisis on a scale that many experts would have once considered to be unthinkable. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been much written about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has …
via Phoenix Capital Research As I keep emphasizing, the War in Iran has the potential to ignite another round of inflation in the U.S. In fact, the longer this conflict drags on, the higher the odds of inflation surging. When most people think about oil and its uses, they think of gasoline and cars. But …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
Brits must brace for energy RATIONING as Middle East chaos causes shortages, ex-No10 expert warns https://t.co/wcNsfx6Ee3 — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 16, 2026 Brits were today warned they must brace for energy rationing as the Middle East crisis continues. Former No10 energy expert Nick Butler said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by …