Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed. Every. Single. Time. Recession talk builds. Fed won’t cut until something breaks.

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4 Signals The Next Crisis Could Be Worse Than 2008

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-13/bofa-s-hartnett-warns-markets-are-starting-to-look-like-2008

The U.S. economy is probably already in recession now, but the Fed can’t pre-emptively cut rates because they would stoke inflation. They have to wait until liquidity drains out of markets and something “breaks” before they can bring down rates.

But by the time that happens stocks will be considerably lower. The Fed did not panic in 2022 and 2025 when stocks imploded -20%. It will take something more than that.

This is the Fed financial stress index. It’s an amalgamation of indicators across the bond and stock market. As we see, it’s currently negative, meaning there is low perceived market stress. The private credit collapse is not even on the Fed’s radar.


Deflation is coming: