Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Iran’s Ambassador to Russia warns the U.S. against a ground invasion: “If someone invades our land and thinks they can easily take Iran, they are mistaken. American soldiers will suffer a great calamity. I don’t know if they will be able to remove the bodies.” This is the bluntest threat Iran has made in the …
Reporter’s summation of today’s episode from Frontline Africa news podcast: Five things you should take away from this episode. The number one thing is that this is now a four-front war. Iran from the east, Hezbollah from the north, the Houthis from Yemen in the south, the Iraqi militias hitting American targets across the Middle …
Did you know there is a second critical strait besides the Strait of Hormuz? The Bab el-Mandeb is another major economic chokepoint. If it were closed, it could significantly worsen the current Iran war crisis. Although Yemen is a strong ally of Iran, closing the Bab… — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) March 28, 2026 🇮🇱🇮🇷 …
A flood watch is still in effect for the Big Island, as well as a flood advisory for Maui, as people try to assess the devastating flood damage. The already battered Hawaiian islands may face more flooding today, with a flood watch still in effect for the Big Island and a flood advisory in Maui …
BREAKING: President Trump just told 450 million Europeans: sign my deal by Thursday or I cut your gas. And if you think this is impulsive, you are not paying attention. This is the most calculated energy play in American history. Qatar’s LNG is offline. Force Majeure. Ras Laffan shut after Iranian drones hit it on …
95 TO 99% OF ALL GLOBAL INTERNET TRAFFIC FLOWS THROUGH UNDERSEA CABLES AND IRAN JUST THREATENED TO CUT THEM Read that again. Not satellites. Physical glass fiber cables sitting on the ocean floor at 200 feet depth. ZERO protection. 30% of the world’s internet passes through ONE chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz. 20+ cables run …
Something is breaking, and it is not isolated. It is spreading, layer by layer, system by system, market by market, and now governments are quietly telling people to change how they live. Start with the center of it all, the energy system. Iran just launched drone strikes on Kuwait’s largest refinery while Israel hit the …
Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. An oil shock is quickly solved by non-OPEC supply, alternatives, and flexible systems. LNG is only 15% of the total gas market but very tight in supply and much more challenging to… pic.twitter.com/vCf5mQJAA0 — Daniel Lacalle …
Canada is now trying to convince residents to get the flue vaccine by telling them it reduces the risk of stroke “We're starting to see more strokes — The good news is that getting your flu shot reduces your risk of stroke. According to a study from the University of California” pic.twitter.com/yFYvlAJdVL — Wall Street …
Everyone’s watching the $VIX. Almost nobody’s watching the VVIX. $VIX drops 13% and the timeline relaxes. But options on the $VIX itself? Still at the 88th percentile. That’s institutional hedgers quietly keeping their crash insurance fully loaded. Surface calm. Expensive tail protection underneath. That’s not contradiction. That’s a tell. $IWM round-tripped its entire intraday rally …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
🚨 WARNING: OIL IS PRICING A BIGGER CRISIS THAN STOCKS Deutsche Bank just released the WHOLE crisis setup. Across previous oil-related geopolitical shocks, oil rose 26.9% on average, while equities fell 6.0% over 14 trading days. Now, oil pumped 46.6%, while the S&P dumped… pic.twitter.com/Dy0aOjmfyF — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) March 15, 2026 Jeff Currie from Goldman …
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has set a risk level for the recall of potato chips due to inaccurate nutritional data and undeclared ingredients. Detroit-based Uncle Ray’s LLC initiated a voluntary recall of Lowes Foods sour cream and onion flavored potato chips on February 25. The FDA classified it as a Class II recall, …
New economic data released today delivered a troubling combination for the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy. The second estimate of Q4 GDP came in at just 0.7 percent, far below the 1.4 percent economists expected and marking the second weakest growth reading in the past 3.5 years. At the same time, inflation pressures …
By Peter Reagan The Iran conflict. At this point, even those rare individuals living in a closet without television or internet have heard about the fighting. Most people are focused on the military and political dimensions. That’s understandable. But there’s another part of the story that affects nearly every American household – and it has …
via notayesmanseconomics So far it has been quite a week for economic trends and markets and as I type this it is only Tuesday morning! But I wish to examine a feature that will lead to a gnashing of teeth at various central banks including my home one the Bank of England. A word it …
Security researchers have uncovered a massive data exposure in Android AI apps that has put hundreds of terabytes of user information at risk. Analysis of 1.8 million apps on the Google Play Store revealed widespread insecure coding practices like hardcoded secrets and misconfigured cloud endpoints. Hundreds of apps were found leaking sensitive credentials. Misconfigurations in …
At least 26 million Americans have been impacted by a major hack that has been called the ‘largest breach in US history.’ Personal data was stolen from Conduent, a company that provides printing, paymentand document processing services for some of the largest health insurance providers in the nation. Addresses, Social Security numbers and health information …
Imran Lakha | Options Insight @options_insight $NVDA is going to crush earnings. Everyone knows this. That’s the problem. None of us are going to be surprised by good numbers. The question isn’t whether they beat. It’s the second derivative. How much is already priced. How many people already hold the stock. Semis have outperformed software. …
US Supreme Court will decide a ruling on Trump's tariffs at 10am ET today. Only 26% chance that the ruling will be in favour of Trump's tariffs. pic.twitter.com/vY9avcF99I — Ted (@TedPillows) February 20, 2026 The prospect that stocks could rise on a ruling striking the tariffs is frankly absurd as the US would be on …
Most people are totally ignoring that once these systems go live there is no undo button for a collapsed middle class. Its honestly pathetic how we just watch it happen without even putting up a fight. QE Never thought about AI in charge of financial aspects of trading accounts You are correct about zero regulations …
An iconic American outdoors brand is being forced to rethink its business route, with a major operator filing for bankruptcy amid plummeting sales. The operator of roughly 180 Eddie Bauer stores across the US and Canada has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing declining sales and a host of other industry challenges. This marks …
Deli-style Margherita pizza sold across 10 states have been recalled after federal officials warned it may contain metal fragments. What To Know WinCo Foods deli pizza was recalled across 10 states after it was found that the product may contain metal fragments, according to a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) enforcement report entry for …
Oracle's free cash flows isn't expected to go positive again until 2030 https://t.co/WCAPamfTiz pic.twitter.com/H9X5qJw8H7 — Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) February 2, 2026 A Panicking Oracle Plans To Raise Up To $50 Billion, As Its Stock And Bonds Crater https://t.co/UBt8H4OO8W — zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2026 Just over a month ago, on Dec 17, alongside the news …
Nicki Minaj has been ordered to pay $503,000 after losing a lawsuit — and it could jeopardize ownership of her $20 million California mansion if she doesn’t pay up. Judge Cindy Pánuco ruled against the Super Bass singer, 43, in 2024 judgment as part of a lawsuit brought by her one-time security guard, Thomas Weidenmüller. …
“Private credit exposure to AI disruption high, not priced in – UBS” No kidding. “…We estimate that 25–35% of private credit portfolios face elevated AI disruption risk. Using BDC portfolios as a proxy (AUM of ~$450 billion, $350 billion of which is public), exposure to high disruption risk subsectors is most acute in technology (~24% …
The Korean stock market went parabolic overnight on news that Trump is increasing tariffs. Bulls are betting that it's TACO time again. Someone should explain to bulls that TACO is not as good at the top as it is at the bottom. https://t.co/NKgi6HgMes Korean stock implosion is… pic.twitter.com/mC0IZHOe61 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 27, 2026 HSBC: …
Private credit has surged in popularity since post-financial crisis regulations discouraged banks from serving riskier borrowers. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned after a pair of private credit-backed companies declared bankruptcy that problems in credit are rarely isolated. Companies that are most linked to the asset class, such as Blue Owl Capital, as well as …
Confidence is growing in a high-impact winter storm affecting the South and East. Widespread snow, significant icing, and extreme cold are possible as Arctic air collides with southern-stream energy.
What Ultra Tight Credit Spreads Are Really Telling You Corporate bond spreads are sitting near their tightest levels since 2007, which on the surface reads as confidence..low defaults, steady growth, plenty of liquidity. Credit markets are basically saying, “We’re comfortable here.” But that comfort is exactly what should make you pause. Credit spreads are the …