Everyone’s watching the $VIX. Almost nobody’s watching the VVIX.
$VIX drops 13% and the timeline relaxes. But options on the $VIX itself? Still at the 88th percentile. That’s institutional hedgers quietly keeping their crash insurance fully loaded.
Surface calm. Expensive tail protection underneath. That’s not contradiction. That’s a tell.
$IWM round-tripped its entire intraday rally today. Gapped up, faded back to flat. Mega caps holding while small caps get sold into strength is the narrowest possible version of “risk on.”
I think $SPY fades back toward 660 by Friday. Wednesday’s FOMC is being priced as a binary event, and the positioning into it looks like everyone expects the same outcome.
The footnotes are louder than the headlines right now. What’s your FOMC read?
Everyone's watching the $VIX. Almost nobody's watching the VVIX.$VIX drops 13% and the timeline relaxes. But options on the $VIX itself? Still at the 88th percentile. That's institutional hedgers quietly keeping their crash insurance fully loaded.
Surface calm. Expensive tail…
— TraderHC (@traderhc) March 16, 2026
Zero percent of asset classes have positive momentum right now. Equities, bonds, gold, oil, crypto. All negative. Every single one.
That's historically extreme. It doesn't last.$IWM is bouncing off its lower Bollinger Band this morning, RSI near 31. Classic oversold setup. But…
— TraderHC (@traderhc) March 17, 2026
What you had on Friday was a chance to close above 6700.
And then come Monday you had a chance.
Market closed both days sub 6700.
This is NOT good. This does not look good.
Indicating there is someone who’s actively shorting these prices .
— tic toc (@TicTocTick) March 16, 2026
Trump: "Frankly, I thought the stock market was going to go down much more. It's a big chess game at a very high level. It's very high level chess. The highest. And I'm dealing with very smart players. These are high IQ people. These are not Jasmine Crockett." pic.twitter.com/6PYEQNxTfi
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 16, 2026