Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
For years, Japan was the country that couldn’t raise interest rates. Deflation wouldn’t let it. Weak growth wouldn’t let it. An aging population wouldn’t let it. Now people are seriously talking about the Bank of Japan pushing rates above 2% this cycle. That number doesn’t sound impressive if you’re looking at the Fed. For Japan, …
China property was big wealth engine. Now big drag on growth. Global markets feel China pain quick through trade and sentiment. Policy fixes slow. Expect ongoing volatility. Lesson for everywhere: too much wealth in one asset risky when rules change. Something big is happening in China. pic.twitter.com/uqPj5nPToZ — NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) July 7, 2026 $200,000,000,000 wiped …
Something unusual is happening in Japan. The yen just hit a 40 year low and Japan may need another $100 billion to fight back Japan is running into a problem money alone cannot easily fix. The USD/JPY pushed above 162.66, sending the yen to its weakest level since 1986. Japanese Yen just broke! 🚨 It …
One day after a brutal global tech liquidation, markets are trying to find their footing. Yesterday looked like the first real panic of the AI era. Chip stocks were crushed. The KOSPI plunged 9.99%. Circuit breakers were triggered. Samsung and SK Hynix suffered some of their worst declines in years. Today looks different. S&P 500 …
Canada is no longer a Free Market Economy, Mark Carney’s economic strategy is a shift from traditional free-market principles toward "economic nationalism" and state-directed capitalism. Corporatism is deeply associated with fascism, serving as the core economic and political… — Julian Assange (@ImJulianAssange) June 23, 2026 You can't vote your way out of a Fascist Regime. …
The FOMC rate decision is just 23 hours away. Prepare for the market volatility ahead by analyzing the new Fed chair press conference. This update focuses on the upcoming FOMC rate decision and what traders should expect when the new Fed chair holds their first press conference. We analyze the current market environment using specific …
Institutional hedging is surging as open interest on puts outweighs calls by over 3 to 1 Hyperscalers are dumping 650 billion into AI infrastructure but AI chip guidance is stalling Broadcom hit revenue targets but failed to raise full year AI guidance causing sector jitters Global smartphone semiconductor revenues are set to collapse 13 percent …
Another example of just how insane this housing market is. https://t.co/I3jGmafRGB — Eric Spracklen 🇺🇸 (@EricSpracklen) June 3, 2026 Homeowners have never been more delusional about the price of their homes pic.twitter.com/6XGXylDuQL — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 30, 2026 Paid $610,000 in '22 and tried to flip it seven months later for an eye-watering $770,000. …
Michael Burry calls Palantir a “sand castle supported by the AI narrative,” arguing sentiment is driving valuation more than fundamentals (IBTimes) Palantir falls in the same window despite broader market strength, reinforcing his near term downside view He points to a head and shoulders pattern forming in the stock, framing it as shifting bullish psychology …
Exxon straight warns next energy wave slams prices in 2-3 weeks. Jeff Currie calls it perfect: five Trump announcements zero closes, sell the tweet buy the molecule. AI spending cracks everywhere – Microsoft dumps Claude licenses, Uber blows budget in four months, H200 rentals crash from seven to four dollars. Calvin nails the delusion – …
The real story here is not “recession fears.” The real story is that institutions, markets, and even consumers are starting to quietly admit something much darker: The modern economy increasingly survives through financial insulation, debt tolerance, asset inflation, and delayed recognition of losses rather than broad based prosperity. That is the connective tissue running through …
This Indian prime minister type keeps posting music appreciation and gala photo ops while the rupee crashes, inflation crushes everyone, markets tank, and over 100 people died in a UP calamity with widespread joblessness. Why are our leaders so disconnected from reality?Currency is crashingMarkets are crashingFIIs are running awayInflation is going up100+ people died in …
📉 Markets are sending a message this morning and it is NOT good… Oil is up sharply, U.S. futures are down hard, European and Asian equities are in the red, and Treasury yields are surging past 4.5%. Insiders are telling us something bad may be imminent https://t.co/vfw72wqP4E pic.twitter.com/DjEMYNBCI8 — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 15, 2026 …
This whole mess is spiraling. UAE is beyond fucked. They betrayed Iran, OPEC, BRICS and got the middle finger from other GCC nations when they asked for help. Once America leaves the region after suffering a horrible defeat, UAE is going to beg China for help and agree to an absolutely one sided deal. — …
They keep doing the same things hoping for a different result. Interesting how these big numbers keep showing up right when things look frothy. This pattern feels familiar, wonder how long it can go. The Federal Reserve is still buying T-Bills despite markets hitting new all-time-highs every week. Jerome Powell said he would only be …
🇺🇸🇮🇷 A recession is coming, and most people won't see it until it's too late. Energy Economist Anas Alhajji explains why the official numbers are lying to you. "Don't be fooled by the stock market going up. The first official data of a recession is going to come out. We are… https://t.co/3hzrU37ROP pic.twitter.com/t8nbWqglLZ — Mario …
Financial titans at the Milken Institute conference describe a “weird” schism between records and reality… While the Middle East burns, the global elite at the Peninsula and Maybourne focus on AI and IPO exits… Goldman Sachs partners report “a lot of chatter” regarding private equity firms restarting the dealmaking engine… European fund managers express “healthy …
via notayesmanseconomics Over the past week or two we have seen a rather curious development if you consider that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. It has been highlighted today by the news from Nihon or Japan. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index has passed the 63,000 mark for the first time. Investors returned on …
Record sentiment meets crashing consumer reality in the ultimate setup for the next rug pull. pic.twitter.com/eNuNd4sqTV — Jron (@Jron73074698) May 7, 2026 Anyone that believes consumers would get skidish after $5/gas prices should look at DoorDash and Uber Eats reports. These businesses exist because of consumer disposable income. If the consumer was going to be …
Order boosts access to 401k and IRA accounts for more workers.. President called participation numbers “incredible”.. Some wonder whether this quietly channels more household money into markets while easing long term pressure on government programs.. President Trump signed an EO on April 30 to launch TrumpIRA.gov in 2027. It utilizes the Saver’s Match (SECURE 2.0) …
via BGID_to_the_moon Although the March CPI report came in at 0.9% mth over mth with a 10.9% increase in energy, markets reacted fairly positively to the report because inflation didn’t materialize in other items. Core only increased 0.2% and food was actually flat. And the way the stock market has moved the past 2 weeks …
Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes. This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities). The last major signal was at …
Investors are cashing-in massive profits from the oil trade: The United States Oil ETF, $USO, has posted -$900 million in outflows so far in April, on track for its largest monthly withdrawal since the 2009 record of -$1.2 billion. Still, the ETF is up +2% month-to-date, after rising as much as +100% from January to …
The route is basically dead and the media is still recycling the same old peaceful narrative. Why is everyone acting like this is normal? Omg. This is absolutely insane. Why is everyone acting like this is normal? pic.twitter.com/gO0lUmC7CO — NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) April 25, 2026 There will never be a deal. Markets are being set up …
Keep acting like the consumer is still strong and spending like nothing’s changed… and yeah, it’s going to look fine until it suddenly isn’t. Inflation still hot and people already stretched, that’s the kind of setup where things can roll over, but timing is always the tricky part. U.S. inflation picture is the worst in …
Irishman David Roche see’s what’s coming: “We are going to run out of fuel in the global economy” “The markets are in cloud cuckoo land” “We are moving beyond initial inflationary affects to the second stage where there is no gas to price” “Within a few months we will be in an economy which has …
Iran, US still in touch after failed talks in Islamabad – CBS Engagement between Tehran and Washington has continued since the failure of the first round of Islamabad talks over the weekend, CBS News reported on Monday citing officials. There is “forward motion on trying to get to an agreement,” the report added citing one …
*US MILITARY SAYS IT WILL BEGIN HORMUZ BLOCKADE 10AM ET MONDAY — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 12, 2026 Trump states that the Iran ceasefire continues to hold effectively — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) April 13, 2026
bro was right. Atlassian down 75%. HubSpot down 69%. Figma down 86%. Almost all of them down 30–70% from their 52-week highs. AI is literally eating software alive and repricing every company in real time. SaaS is cooked fr 😭 https://t.co/NsOxRTLLEp pic.twitter.com/Xk8QBCTJD3 — shirish (@shiri_shh) April 10, 2026 Anthropic's valuation just surged past OpenAI'sin private …
🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz reality check, early April, even after Trump’s ceasefire: – Vessel traffic has dropped to single digits per day.– Iran now has total control: obstructing passages at will and charging vessels millions of dollars in fees to get through.– Crude oil prices… https://t.co/MHTCeXqfrE pic.twitter.com/E79Jb4xXDq — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 9, 2026 Here’s …