Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in February, significantly missing the 0.5% decline expectation as transportation demand craters. The manufacturing floor is falling out while the Fed stays hawkish. This is the “hard landing” signal the bulls are desperately trying to ignore. Bank of America warns of a 0.9% March CPI jump driven by a …
THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE 🚨 🚨NOBODY UNDERSTANDS WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨 🚨 People always talk about Iranian oil in terms of barrels, but rarely about what’s actually inside them. That’s the key difference—and the reason Western refineries have quietly relied on back-channel networks through places like Dubai for years to keep getting it, …
Oil prices are absolutely soaring…AND CRASHING. Yes, at the same time. The main US petroleum benchmark surged by a whopping $11.42 a barrel on Thursday alone, the last trading day before the Good Friday holiday. And one key benchmark clocked in above $140. Yet, the rest of oil futures aren’t soaring at all. In fact, …
In another word: the Iran war won’t be over anytime soon. https://t.co/KtpfVflPrD — SwingTrader (@SwingTraderQ) April 3, 2026 This is absolute insanity. NO ONE WANTS THIS! “America first” my *ss. The last thing he cares about are the American people. That’s become very clear. https://t.co/Rh7OzXRBKe — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 3, 2026 The biggest problem …
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx Oil spikes as Trump's Iran war speech sends global markets into turmoil https://t.co/rFQb23WtaW — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 2, 2026 Oil prices spiked and global markets plunged after Donald Trump’s prime-time address to the nation Wednesday failed to outline a clear path to ending the Iran war. Trump’s speech provided no certainty as he …
The question everyone should be asking themselves right now, this second, is why isn’t oil $130 per barrel? Today. Right now. When you look around the world, there are a lot of indications which strongly suggest crude is being drastically underpriced. A lot of it has to do with uncertainty, and I mean that in …
What is often overlooked is that the Fed primarily controls demand-side inflation, not supply-side inflation. In other words, it can influence how much people borrow and spend, but it cannot directly increase supply, like producing more oil. This means that in the case of a supply-shock, as we are seeing now with energy prices, the …
The market is starting to reject it. IRAN ON US PEACE TALK HEADLINES: "They’ve spammed so much fake news trying to push energy prices down that the market is just numb now. Keep going, nobody is buying it anymore. The real prices will show up anyway. Powerful? Maybe. But Smart? Not even close. Burned that …
The war in Iran is, for markets, a hot mess. It’s on, it’s off, it’s getting better, it’s getting worse and pretty much every asset class on the planet is getting bashed around with every new headline like a ping-pong game from hell. Some of this is frankly too exhausting and ultimately too pointless to …
United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and staying above $100 next year as industry faces worst shock since COVID The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has delivered the biggest disruption to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic, and United is bracing for a future where oil prices remain high through 2027. …
MACRO DATA JUST DROPPED • Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs. Est. 51.3 • Services PMI 51.1 vs. Est. 51.5 • Composite PMI: 51.4 This should ease the recession fears that started creeping into the market last week and suggests the bear case may have gotten ahead of itself. S&P PMI: "The PMI data are indicative of …
TRUMP ON IRAN: WILL BE VERY SERIOUS FORM OF REGIME CHANGE || MAYBE WE FIND A LEADER LIKE WE DID IN VENEZUELA — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 23, 2026 Trump used Truth Social to dramatically escalate the war on Saturday, only to do a complete 180 just before the stock market opened on Monday. Is …
Something is breaking, and it is not isolated. It is spreading, layer by layer, system by system, market by market, and now governments are quietly telling people to change how they live. Start with the center of it all, the energy system. Iran just launched drone strikes on Kuwait’s largest refinery while Israel hit the …
Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. An oil shock is quickly solved by non-OPEC supply, alternatives, and flexible systems. LNG is only 15% of the total gas market but very tight in supply and much more challenging to… pic.twitter.com/vCf5mQJAA0 — Daniel Lacalle …
🚨OIL UNDERPRICED BY FINANCIAL MARKETS Goldman’s Jeff Currie says 'paper' crude oil near $100 is disconnected from physical markets trading barrels between $130 and $170, with refined products above $200. A clear disconnect between paper and physical oil trade. pic.twitter.com/Tzoy4AnLZq — Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) March 19, 2026 Citi’s “two scenarios” for the US war on …
The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100 ✓ Central bankers focused on inflation, the wrong risk ✓ …
The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/xiba9GU3z2 — Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) March 17, 2026 The market is green today and nobody's talking about the sector that refused …
We have now entered the rampant buffoonery phase of this war. However, it appears that both sides are looking for an offramp without admitting as much. Trump has punted the Strait of Hormuz crisis to the rest of the world and Iran has said they will allow the rest of the world to pass through …
Investors are dangerously underestimating the length and severity of the Iran conflict. Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) highlighted that Bank of America strategist Antonio Gabriel sees a prolonged Middle East war extending into the second quarter as equally likely as a quick resolution. U.S. stock valuations and Fed expectations suggest the market is not pricing in the …
🚨 WARNING: OIL IS PRICING A BIGGER CRISIS THAN STOCKS Deutsche Bank just released the WHOLE crisis setup. Across previous oil-related geopolitical shocks, oil rose 26.9% on average, while equities fell 6.0% over 14 trading days. Now, oil pumped 46.6%, while the S&P dumped… pic.twitter.com/Dy0aOjmfyF — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) March 15, 2026 Jeff Currie from Goldman …
Iran has destroyed 5 US refueling aircraft in Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Airbase as Trump announces US forces “obliterating” Iranian military installations at Kharg Island in preparation for a GROUND INVASION. Meanwhile, numerous tankers have come under Iranian fire in the Persian Gulf, leading to massive panic in the oil markets and among US military …
A new debate is spreading across Wall Street. Is the market starting to resemble the period right before the Global Financial Crisis? Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes the comparison is becoming harder to ignore. In a recent note, Hartnett warned that asset performance in 2026 is beginning to look “ominously close” to the …
Bessent tries to calm the oil markets and literally a minute later his senile boss has to start picking a fight with the Fed again. pic.twitter.com/NE1YiMdqNU — Michael Bento (@MichaelPBento) March 12, 2026 JUST IN: Trump demands "immediate" rate cuts 1% chance it happens — Kalshi (@Kalshi) March 12, 2026 🚨TRUMP DEMANDS IMMEDIATE RATE CUT …
Truflation called it: 2.4% . 35M+ data points. Real-time. No crystal ball.https://t.co/6NsWimzn6e — Truflation (@truflation) March 11, 2026 Feb CPI up 0.3% M/M, 2.4% Y/Y, and core up 0.2% M/M, 2.5% Y/Y; shelter (+3.0% Y/Y) was biggest contributor even w/ rent rising just 0.1% M/M, slowest since Jan '21; disturbingly, natural gas utility price is …
There is no sign of panic so far in these markets. However, the problem for bulls is that the VIX futures term structure just moved into backwardation. That means the spot VIX index is higher than the futures, therefore the short volatility trade is over. Which means that no… pic.twitter.com/PdzSSjy65K — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) March 9, …
Green by morning? https://t.co/NqrxcHn0Iw — Acres and Ounces (@RetirementRight) March 8, 2026 The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 should fully recover their pre-market losses by tomorrow’s close, or by the close of the following day. — The Macro Pulse (@TheMacroPulse) March 8, 2026 Watching Oil futures like all of us. He won’t be able …
MOSCOW, March 4 (Reuters) – Russia could halt gas supplies to Europe right now amid a spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran crisis, President Vladimir Putin warned on Wednesday, linking the possible decision to the European Union wanting to ban purchases of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas. Oil and gas prices have …
Markets are pushing higher but will they hold? Here are some things to consider before buying the dip!
via KEVIN Via several Michael Howell videos I explained that the money supply is the main driver of inflation and asset markets – so its a lot more complicated than “inflation is up, so rates must go up – central banks will try and reduce the money supply by making loans more expensive”.The money supply …
via notayesmanseconomics So far it has been quite a week for economic trends and markets and as I type this it is only Tuesday morning! But I wish to examine a feature that will lead to a gnashing of teeth at various central banks including my home one the Bank of England. A word it …