The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out:
✓ Credit bubble reversing
✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions
✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash
✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this)
✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100
✓ Central bankers focused on inflation, the wrong risk
✓ Rising unemployment nobody wants to acknowledge
✓ Officials saying it’s “contained”
✓ Fund managers swearing fundamentals are solid while refusing to return investor money
Every single one of these was present in 2007-2008.
Back then, the NBER didn’t call the recession until December 2008, 9 months after Bear Stearns, 2 months after Lehman.
The Fed was worried about inflation the entire time.
The ECB literally raised rates in July 2008. After Bear Stearns. Because oil was high.
They were staring at the wrong thing while the real crisis built underneath them.
Now does this mean a full 2008 repeat is inevitable? No.
The scale isn’t the same yet. But as Blankfein said, the range of outcomes smells a lot more like that than not. And every week the smell gets stronger.
I’m hosting a live webinar March 26 at 6PM ET. We’re going to go through where we are in this process, what’s changed, and what the market signals say about what’s coming.
https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web
The 2008 parallels aren't subtle anymore. Let me lay them out:
✓ Credit bubble reversing
✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions
✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash
✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this)
✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100
✓…— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) March 17, 2026
…”A ‘substantial portion’ of the private equity industry is already ‘stressed or distressed’.”
Davidson Kempner Capital Management’s CIO Tony Yoseloff on the growing risks in private capital.
“You’re not looking at a problem five years from now, you’re looking at a problem… pic.twitter.com/4wDHXjFdib
— kristen shaughnessy (@kshaughnessy2) March 18, 2026
Stocks haven’t hit bottom yet, says the analyst who called a ‘rolling recession’ when everyone else saw a boom | Nick Lichtenberg, Fortune
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says 50% of Russell 3000 stocks are already down 20% — and the selloff panicking investors this week started… pic.twitter.com/bOd9Rz9odU
— Owen Gregorian (@OwenGregorian) March 18, 2026
I'm telling you, if you think we somehow bottomed already, I got some oceanfront property in AZ for you. $615 on the SPY, that's where you want to think about getting seriously long. Until then, buy the dips, sell the rips and look for lower lows. pic.twitter.com/rOuDrRcx1g
— Mel Mattison (@MelMattison1) March 17, 2026
Don't worry, the crisis is coming in April.https://t.co/KD78wVOcbI
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) March 18, 2026