Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
One number jumped out at me today. Nearly 2 million Americans have now been unemployed for more than six months. That is up by more than 500,000 from a year ago. Even more interesting, long term unemployed workers now make up 27.5% of all unemployed Americans. That does not happen in a labor market that …
6.2 million Americans want a job but aren’t counted They stopped looking so they vanish from the stats Long-term unemployed keeps climbing while the headline rate sits still 6.2 MILLION AMERICANS WANT JOBS. NONE OF THEM ARE "UNEMPLOYED." The unemployment rate held at 4.3% in May. To be counted in it, you have to be …
This collapse is just getting started. Kids can’t get jobs and fast food giants scramble as broke Americans pull back hard. Labor Force participation is collapsing at a pace only seen during the 2020 crisis. Participation always drops before the official unemployment numbers skyrocket. Of-course that's only if you assume the BLS unemployment numbers are …
The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100 ✓ Central bankers focused on inflation, the wrong risk ✓ …
Mid-30s Unemployment?! “I think it’s very natural to be concerned about jobs. “I think young people coming out of university today, it’s like 9% unemployment. “I think it could easily go into the mid-30s in the next couple of years.” – Bill McDermott $NOW CEO CNBC: “The mid-30s?!” Bill McDermitt: “I do, because what’s happening …
Nonfarm payrolls in February fell by 92,000, compared to the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. It was the third time in five months that the economy lost jobs. Health care, the primary growth driver in payrolls, saw a loss of 28,000 due largely to a strike at Kaiser …
Gallup: Most Americans expect inflation and unemployment to worsen as the stock market grows The latest Gallup poll, released Monday, finds that most Americans expect inflation and unemployment to worsen this year, even as the stock market improves. The research firm reported that 62% of adults responding to its questionnaire anticipated higher prices over the …
lol. pic.twitter.com/pFOutDbzEE — Count Biffur (@CountBifur) February 24, 2026 This has very little, if anything, to do with the sitting president. — Martin (@MerelyASaint) February 24, 2026 so yeah, time to reread this from March 2023: AI Will Lead To 300 Million Layoffs In The US And Europe https://t.co/iav1uCy07u pic.twitter.com/y5WjW2sPao — zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 23, …
They're hiding a job market collapse. Hiding the job market collapse keeps the stock market higher. Keeping the stock market higher lets the top 10% keep spending. What happens when the charade ends? https://t.co/cDYrPPyai7 pic.twitter.com/38KbSeVM7f — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 17, 2026 Cass Freight index plunges. Only weaker at the depths of the GFC. pic.twitter.com/lWKGk8TVcX …
Yeah, GDP just falling off a cliff. pic.twitter.com/o12I4zWeDz — Derek Columbus (@columbus_derek) February 10, 2026 Goldman Sachs cuts Q4 GDP to 1.6% 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/brJug5LRqT — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 10, 2026 an overlay of 2008 & 2026… why is nobody talking about this… pic.twitter.com/oS0p2XDR2S — ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ (@hamptonism) February 10, 2026
US consumer savings are falling at an alarming pace: The US personal savings rate fell -0.2 percentage points in November 2025, to 3.5%, the lowest since October 2022. Excluding the March-October 2022 period, this is the lowest level since the 2008 Financial Crisis. This… pic.twitter.com/iru70ge4tp — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 28, 2026 “Outside of …
US LONG TERM UNEMPLOYMENT HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH – FT — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) January 26, 2026 The unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in more than four years as the US labor market shows more signs of weakness heading into 2026. The national unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, according to Bureau of …
“Every time the Unemployment Rate crosses its 36-month moving average from BELOW, a recession sets in.” https://t.co/3rknCG3YUH — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) January 18, 2026 “Private credit investors pull $7bn from Wall Street’s biggest funds” Fewer eyes on this story if it drops on the Saturday of a long holiday weekend??? “Private credit investors pulled …
This is the quiet global problem nobody wants to stare at. Young people are doing everything they were told to do and still getting shut out. When youth unemployment sits this high across totally different countries, it stops being local policy failure and starts looking structural. Idle young workers do not just wait patiently, they …
by Michael Frustrated job seekers all over America just got more bad news. The unemployment rate just hit the highest level that we have seen in four years, and that is yet another indication that the labor market is getting even tighter. If you currently have a good job that you highly value, hold on …
25.3% of unemployment is now Americans with college degrees, a record high. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance The US labor market is showing unprecedented stress for Americans with four-year college degrees, who now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployed workers, a percentage that has more than doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis. According to recent government …
The system is quietly trapping everyone while pretending nothing’s wrong. According to the BLM's most recent numbers, private employers are reporting 13,500 job cuts a WEEK. These are PRIVATE EMPLOYERS. NOT GOVERNMENT JOBS. The BLM reports we are seeing the worst job numbers since 2008. If you can HONESTLY justify that, you're a lot of …
50% unemployment? "Capitalism can't survive AI"… he's saying the quiet part out loud. Welcome to technofeudalism 🤫 https://t.co/E0YvCTJ3LZ pic.twitter.com/0sxgRz4szu — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 24, 2025 Anthropic CEO warns AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10–20% Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world’s most powerful creators …
BREAKING: U.S. unemployment rate blows past expectations, soaring to the highest level in years. — Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 20, 2025 NOW – DHS Secretary Noem on H-1Bs: "Under the Trump admin, we've sped up our process and added integrity to the visa programs, to green cards, to all of that, but also more people are …
https://twitter.com/spice1975503/status/1991520334458343476 Noticing a growing number of Fed officials voicing concerns about private credit lately. But this one is esp notable where one of them is openly highlighting risks among life insurers (its largest investor base). If the Fed is concerned about lifers, things are quite serious. pic.twitter.com/sC3uUFrdKq — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) November 20, 2025 Everything’s …
AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10% to 20% in the next one to five years, predicts Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. https://t.co/K53oCApIeF pic.twitter.com/6BgAlQ30pM — 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) November 17, 2025 Anthropic CEO’s Prediction: “AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs in 1 to 5 …
GOLDMAN: “.. the expected change in the unemployment rate over the next year has never been this bad outside recessionary periods since the University of Michigan started asking the question in 1978.” https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3m3p56fas7k2r If you're curious how the economy is doing, look at heavy truck sales. Combined with oil prices falling, this shows we're in …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought some disappointing news for the UK from the labour market and we can start with what is already grabbing the headlines. The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.8% in June to August 2025. This is up in the latest quarter and …
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/6Yhm79I8H4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 18, 2025 30-10YR Yield Spread Rising. Look at the chart…. and tell me what you think! pic.twitter.com/NmoDGkE272 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 19, 2025 US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo — unusual_whales …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Powell says risks to inflation are to the upside. Risks to labor market are to the downside. The Fed’s live Press conference was interesting. I made some notes. Someone marked the YouTube I posted as “private”. You can Replay the Video from the Fed website. Powell Comments Its a “challenging, unusual …
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), based on official BLS data: 2022: 3.5% 2023: 3.8% 2024: 4.1% June 2025: 4.1% July 2025: 4.2% August 2025: 4.3%
by confoundedinterest17 Not exactly the Guns Of August. More like a wet cap gun firing. The jobs report for August showed only 22k jobs added. U-3 unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. U-6 unemployment and part-time rose to 8.1%. Total private jobs added was 38k while manufacturing jobs added was down -12k. Government jobs dropped -16k. …
AI’s not progress, it’s a guillotine for the working class. Your skills, your future, they’re scrap in a machine’s cold calculus. We’re watching the erosion of American jobs in real time.AI is already displacing young U.S. workers.Meanwhile, companies still flood in cheap H-1B labor to cut costs further. Why are we importing workers when we …
Germany’s unemployment has surged past 3 million for the first time in over a decade, reaching 3.025 million in August 2025. The jobless rate ticked up to 6.4%, with manufacturing and energy-intensive sectors hit hardest. Labour Minister Baerbel Bas called for “countermeasures,” while Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces mounting pressure to deliver reforms. DW reports the …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Continued claims hit a new high since November 2021. Continued unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish Today, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending August 16. Initial Claims In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims …