Continued Unemployment Claims Jump by 30,000 to New High Since Nov 6, 2021

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk,

Continued claims hit a new high since November 2021.

Continued unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

Today, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending August 16.

Initial Claims

  • In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 224,000.
  • The 4-week moving average was 226,250, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 221,750.

Continued Claims

  • The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 9 was 1,972,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021 when it was 2,041,000.
  • The previous week’s level was revised down by 11,000 from 1,953,000 to 1,942,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,954,500, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,750 from 1,950,750 to 1,948,000.

Initial Claims and 4-Week Average

Initial unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

Initial unemployment claims are somewhat above the middle of a 200K to 250K range where things have been for over three years.

However, continued claims keep rising.

This is an indication that it’s much harder to find a job once you lose one.

Continued claims bottomed in mid 2022 at 1,349,000 and are now 1,972,000.

Continued Claims, 15+ and 27+ weeks Unemployed

The huge problem with looking at continued claims alone is people expire benefits.

They are unemployed but uncounted in continued claims.

Most states offer 26 weeks unemployment, with some less. To adjust for the loss in benefits, one needs to factor in long-term employment over 26 weeks.

The monthly average of continued claims plus 27+ week unemployment is 3,778,000 through July. That’s up from a low of 2,513,000 in September of 2022.

And 3.8 million is understated because not all states offer 26 weeks. Also job-hopping reduces benefits.

So look beyond the stable (for now) initial claims to see what’s really happening.