Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
A staggering 96% of Americans express deep worry about the current economic landscape, according to a survey by Intuit Credit Karma. The surprising link between low unemployment and imminent recessions is now causing widespread anxiety. While historically, a low unemployment rate signals a robust economy, recent data challenges this notion. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen …
AI/Robotics will have a huge influence in many jobs. It's coming. Elon said it can be for good or bad. pic.twitter.com/TgcrHTgakS — floridanow1 (@floridanow1) December 25, 2023
The divergence in reported German unemployment rates, with official figures indicating a worsening situation while the ILO measure suggests minimal change, raises questions about the accuracy and reliability of the data, especially when considering the overall number of people unemployed. German unemployment – according to the German Federal Labor department – continues to worsen. Unemployment …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 The probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 56.2%. This means that there is a more than 50% chance that the economy will contract in the next year. The odds are highest in over 10 years, and this has been driven by concerns about trade policy and weakening global growth.
Jobs report is out: October is lower than expected, plus more downward revisions from initial reported numbers. Unemployment is also up. 34% of reported jobs gained were in government, while manufacturing lost 35,000 jobs. View post on imgur.com Unemployment among Hispanic workers rises at faster pace in October than overall rate Among Hispanic Americans, the …
Higher deficits & unemployment, more govt borrowing, more money supply, more inflation… And the US wants to wage war in Ukraine & a Messianic one in the middle east? China sees the US Empire over-extended, & will soon heat-up the South China Sea…https://t.co/kSQOeRIsfH — St. Aubrun (@st_aubrun) November 2, 2023 FED'S POWELL: WE ARE NOT …
The rise in California’s unemployment rate from 3.8% to 4.7% is concerning, and it’s an indicator that the overall U.S. unemployment rate may also see an increase in the near future. Focus on California. Unemployment in that state was 3.8% and is now up to 4.7%. The US unemployment rate will follow it. pic.twitter.com/8nbJXLqNMf — …
It seems like every time there is a yield curve inversion, it leads to a recession. I wonder if this is just a coincidence or if there is something more underlying this relationship. h/t naynancy
Watching 👇 pic.twitter.com/L1DTMD0ueL — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) October 16, 2023 Since 1992, in non-recession years, the average 9-month range for real growth is 1.5%. In other words, growth is always in motion, either cycling higher or sliding lower. This makes sense since the economy moves in a "cycle." 2/3 pic.twitter.com/iUU8BcNYk2 — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) October …
The unemployment rate in information technology rose to 4.3% last month, well above the overall jobless rate of 3.8%, an indication that growth in traditional IT careers and entry-level roles could be slowing amid an artificial-intelligence boom. There were 117,000 unemployed IT professionals last month, an increase from 106,000 in August, according to a report …
by confoundedinterest17 Joe Biden, who has always been a compulsive liar but at least sounded cognicent, is now babbling and whispering that Bidenomics works. But for who? Clearly not for first time homebuyers or people looking to move. Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate is up to almost 8%, the highest since July 2000 and Willy Slick …
Poland goes OFF on the EU! 🔥🔥🔥 "The lowest unemployment is in Poland. The highest GDP after COVID in the European Union is Poland. One of the lowest debts in Europe is Poland. Don't give us this rubbish about the need for educated immigration. We don't need your doctors, your… pic.twitter.com/EGV7bGJQqT — Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) …
The California Senate on Tuesday voted to pay $300 weekly checks to unemployed illegal immigrants even as the state faces a roughly $31.5 billion deficit and mass illegal immigration. Democratic state senators passed Senate Bill 227 by Sen. María Elena Durazo (D.) with a 30-7 vote, sending the measure to the Assembly for approval. The legislation would offer undocumented …
🔊 … 🚨🚨🚨 Senator Matt Canavan explains why net zero will result in massive unemployment and much more expensive food. Our food production requires fossil fuels. Meat/dairy products are becoming unaffordable already due to net zero. China, Russia and India reap the… pic.twitter.com/NdtlHOfumu — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) September 11, 2023
by bitkogan The uptick in unemployment to 3.8% fits nicely into this week’s trend of “bad news is good news.” While the rise is largely due to a revised participation rate, the key takeaway is that it represents yet another piece of negative news. The market has been eagerly anticipating such developments, hoping they might …
by ihasanemail [So I’m a Mandarin-speaking Asian dude from Texas. This is all anecdotal, so this is only my first-hand observations. Feelings are useless in trading. You a moron if you trade off a story versus hard facts.] I was in Beijing for a wedding, then was a tourist through Chengdu and Harbin and various villages …
MSNBC Regime Sockpuppet Lawrence O’Donnell Smears RFK Jr. for ‘Drug Addiction’
via dnyuz: China’s economy is in crisis – and the nation’s youth unemployment problem could be at the root of its current troubles, according to Northwestern University economist Nancy Qian. “To stem the reversal of its economic fortunes, China must address the root of the problem: the lack of high-paying, high-skilled jobs,” Qian said in …
An inverted yield curve systematically leads to a higher unemployment This time is not different pic.twitter.com/nynrlZ2eAZ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 Charts picturing the blow through of pandemic consumer savings are a fun way to view data But this headline is more fun: pic.twitter.com/egOvK5W5Db — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 20, 2023
China’s youth unemployment > 21% now. Is that bad?https://t.co/Rw4qmSZUu0 — Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy) July 17, 2023 China reports second-quarter GDP miss, another record high in youth unemployment. How will the market react to this. The 6.3% GDP print for the second quarter marked a 0.8% pace of growth from the first quarter, slower than the …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/snapshot/Snapshot_July2023.pdf Overview of the July 2023 Snapshot GDP growth slowed: Q1 GDP was about .5% below what it would been if since Q42019, it grew at a rate close to long-term forecasts. Consumer real spending on services up 2.6%—still greater then 2%… Average hourly earnings up 4.4% in June. The employment-to-population ratio for …
California’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund that pays out state benefits is now “structurally insolvent,” according to a recent report. The Legislative Analyst’s Office noted the debt crisis involving the California Employment Development Department’s (EDD) UI trust fund on July 7. The state report was released following last week’s “May Fund Forecast” report by the …
452k additional part-time jobs from economic reasons:“partially reflecting an increase in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions…"More people are trying to get full-time jobs at same time businesses are cutting them… — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 7, 2023 Revisions for Apr and May were negative …
All 23 US banks that participated in a new Federal Reserve stress test would be able to withstand a severe global recession, demonstrating the strength of the biggest financial institutions at a time when the banking industry still is on uncertain ground. Results released by the Fed Wednesday show that these banks would have enough …
Migrants demonstrated outside their new hotel accommodation in central London, demanding better Wi-Fi, more financial assistance, and private rooms. Migrants stage pavement protest outside London hotel, demand private rooms and better Wi-Fi Better Wi-Fi, more financial assistance, and private rooms were just some of the demands made by migrants who demonstrated outside the doors of …
by Aegidius25 The figures released recently regarding the US employment situation were pretty rosey, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report signaling a gain of 339,000 jobs for May, but how does this compare with another less well known but perhaps more reliable government statistics that try and tell us something about the labor …
by confoundedinterest17 The May jobs report is out and, under normal circumstances, would led The Fed to raise rates. But these are not normal times, my friends. The US economy (allegedly) added 339k jobs in May. That is the good news. The not-so-good news? A large diverengence between the Establishment survey and Household survey. +339k versus -310k. What’s it going to be? The bad …
Guest Post by Charles Hugh Smith at Oftwominds.com: This is how we’ll end up with severe shortages of truly skilled labor and high unemployment of those who lack the necessary skills. The labor force and the job market are referred to as if they were monolithic structures. But they’re not monolithic, they are complex aggregates of very different cohorts …
