Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The unemployment rate for young, college-educated women just had its boldest non-Covid jump since records began in 2000 (not seasonally adjusted). This series moves up and down like a Richter scale. Even so, the nature of this rapid pop from 1.8% to 4.1% caught my eye. pic.twitter.com/N70lXNqMPw — Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) July 8, 2024 U.S. …
🇨🇦 Canada's unemployment shows it's already in a severe recession & entered it before the U.S. Canada also has the largest housing bubble in the world. https://t.co/LyJGxSqs05 pic.twitter.com/hg406OfFcg — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 5, 2024 BREAKING: Canada's financial regulator says they are delaying plans to hike capital requirements for banks https://t.co/5HV5HfOOXi pic.twitter.com/ExLUwataPE — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July …
In June 2024, Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6%, marking the highest rate since May 2021. The number of jobless individuals increased by 19,000, bringing the total unemployed to 2.78 million. This represents the 18th consecutive monthly increase in unemployment. A 6% unemployment rate can be considered relatively high, especially for a country like Germany. Germany unemployment rate ticked up to 6%, total …
The Mel Rule, which is based on state-level data, has been triggered, indicating a potential recession. This rule is similar to the Sahm Rule, but it focuses on state-specific unemployment rates. When state-level unemployment rates rise by 0.5 percentage point or more over a three-month period, it signals a likely recession. The idea behind this approach is …
In May 2024, both Washington State and Illinois experienced an unemployment rate of 4.9%. While Washington’s economy added an estimated 16,000 jobs during that period, Illinois saw an increase of 12,700 nonfarm payrolls. It’s interesting to note that last summer, Washington’s unemployment rate was a record low of 3.6%. Washington State takes the 4th slot on highest unemployment rate along with …
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly has indeed warned that the U.S. labor market is approaching an inflection point. She emphasized that further slowing in the labor market could lead to higher unemployment. While the labor market has adjusted slowly so far, Daly cautioned that we are getting closer to a point where this benign outcome may …
Unemployment Rate Increase: The unemployment rate in the United States has risen from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.0%. This increase is significant, especially considering the relatively low rates observed in recent years. 36-Month Moving Average: The fact that the unemployment rate has crossed above its 36-month moving average is noteworthy. Historically, such occurrences have often preceded rapid spikes in the jobless rate. Economic …
This is Beijing’s most known rotten-tailed shopping district, the Shimao Gongsan Shopping Center. So far, it hasn’t been able to find a company willing to take over the project. It has been depressed, doing poor business for many years. In fact, its location is great. Across the road is the famous Sanlitun Bar Street, which …
via Mike Shedlock Unemployment is rising and job openings have crashed. It looks recessionary. Let’s investigate with a series of pictures. Job openings and unemployment level from the BLS, chart by Mish Job openings have plunged from a peak of 12.2 million in March of 2022 to 8.1 million in April of 2024. Openings data …
China wants its 12 million delivery drivers to work for the party PUBLISHED JUST NOW: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/delivery-drivers-06132024152806.html snippet The Communist Party will be asking them to keep an eye on things in exchange for food and drink at rest stations. Chinese takeout diners could soon be getting their food delivered with a side of political ideology. …
via Mike Shedlock Continued claims also show rising economic weakness. Some say it’s just California. Let’s investigate. More signs of economic weakness are showing up in the allegedly strong jobs market. In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s …
US outstrips expectations with 272,000 jobs added in May https://t.co/aXJ5Z4ehoT — Financial Times (@FT) June 7, 2024 Probably nothing https://t.co/Arf3av21Aj — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) June 7, 2024 You can't make this up: First you say the economy added ~150K-200K jobs a month to a total ~500,000 in a quarter showing that everything is wonderful. …
Recent economic updates from the U.S. paint a bleak picture, stirring deep unease among investors. The latest indicators, including the sharp decline in the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, signal a worrisome underperformance reminiscent of the tumultuous trends observed in 2019. This downturn in economic sentiment comes at a precarious moment, with all eyes fixed on …
American taxpayers may soon be burdened with a staggering $32 billion bill for employment fraud, a crisis that has been attributed to the Biden administration. The enormous bill is partially blamed on Biden’s labor head, Julie Su, who served as California’s top labor official during the COVID-19 pandemic when most of the fraud payments were …
Applications for unemployment benefits now surge to new highs, a sign that the white-hot labor market is starting to cool off. First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, per CNN. Thursday’s data also showed that the number of continuing claims, or applications from people who have filed …
Wow UK Payrolls -85,000, unemployment up to 4.3% Employed persons -177K Global cuts shifting to 5th gear soon?#MacroEdge https://t.co/1rYIcxxCP7 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) May 14, 2024 The UK labor market buckles under the weight of staggering unemployment figures, with payrolls plummeting by a jaw-dropping 85,000 and the unemployment rate skyrocketing to 4.3%. Employed persons take …
California has the loosest labor market in the country – started discussing the unemployment dynamic here back in August of 2023. Now has highest unemployment rate and 6% fewer job postings than pre-Feb 2020. Unemployment is rising in 10 largest counties. UR moving opposite… pic.twitter.com/m2MmviTeME — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) May 9, 2024
Over the past 13 weeks, initial unemployment claims have remained remarkably consistent, hovering around 212k, despite the inherent variability in state programs and seasonal factors such as holidays. If the trend of minimal volatility persists, it could erode confidence in the accuracy of unemployment data and raise concerns about underlying economic conditions. Further stagnation in …
NEW: The True Rate of Unemployment is 24.2% according to the Ludwig Institute 😮 Based on data from the BLS, it measures the percentage of the 🇺🇸 US labor force lacking full-time employment (35+ hours a week), seeking work, or earning below $25,000 annually before taxes. pic.twitter.com/GzwcKfnxYC — Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) April 28, 2024 From …
The remarkable consistency in weekly unemployment insurance filings raises questions about statistical probability. Despite the complexities of state programs and economic factors, the numbers remain eerily stable, challenging conventional understanding. Below is the number of initial filings for unemployment insurance. How is this statistically possible? Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number. …
This jobs data could not be better for housing bears. Full time employment is collapsing while they report a "strong" jobs market leading to higher for longer rates and collapsing sales and then prices. pic.twitter.com/mdz9wXh9uO — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 6, 2024 Gig economy workers, exemplified by platforms like Uber and DoorDash, often lack the …
193k jobs lost in Pa since 23 Hundreds of biz bankruptcies & closures. Unemployment trust fund insolvent in Pennsylvania+ denying legit claims bc there’s no money Michigan – Generally speaking, President Biden has managed to recover all the manufacturing jobs lost during the pandemic, and the U.S. manufacturing workforce has grown by more than 146,000 …
Unemployment and supply of homes are correlating higher now as well pic.twitter.com/cfgrH7wAsT — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) March 26, 2024 The real estate rollercoaster is hitting some unexpected twists and turns, with February delivering a double whammy of unsettling news. Brace yourselves: layoffs have skyrocketed a jaw-dropping 410% compared to last year, hitting levels not …
Chief Economist Warns Of High Chances Of Recession Due To Rising Unemployment And Declining Consumer Spending The chances of the economy sliding into a recession are “extremely high,” as the United States is on the brink of experiencing a surge in unemployment and a significant decline in consumer spending. Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of …
via Mike Shedlock The BLS metro report released today. Unemployment rates were up in 218 of 389 metro areas. Nonfarm employment only rose in 59 areas. Graph from the BLS, 10 highest list added by Mish. Please consider the BLS Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment report for January 2024. Unemployment Rate Key Details Unemployment rates were higher …
Very bearish chart. Finding good ‘quality labour’ is no longer a problem in the US. Sharp increase in labour supply is underway (as per today’s NFIB report). Not what a soft landing looks like pic.twitter.com/KyA51rL28w — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) March 12, 2024 US NFIB has declined 0.5 points to 89.4This is the sixth decline in …
by confoundedinterest17 Somehow, Biden left this factoid out of his State of The Union (SOTU) address. In February, immigrants added 1,277 million jobs while native Americans lost -420,000 jobs according to the BLS. Or maybe Biden can change his campaign motto to “Make America Great Again … For Immigrants, NOT Natives.” In February, the unemployment rate unexpectedly …
No wonder MA real estate is hot, you get $48,000/yr for being unemployed https://t.co/2BKFS5pUcs — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 24, 2024
The US lost 1.4 million full time jobs in February . Every single jobs report for the last 12 months has been redacted downwards. If Not for Democrats printing up trillions of dollars and hiring millions of Federal workers. The US Employment Numbers would be 17% worse than the peak of the Great Depression. AC
