Wow UK Payrolls -85,000, unemployment up to 4.3%
Employed persons -177K
Global cuts shifting to 5th gear soon?#MacroEdge t.co/1rYIcxxCP7
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) May 14, 2024
The UK labor market buckles under the weight of staggering unemployment figures, with payrolls plummeting by a jaw-dropping 85,000 and the unemployment rate skyrocketing to 4.3%. Employed persons take a nosedive by 177,000, signaling ominous clouds on the economic horizon.
With UK payroll data looming on the horizon, the specter of a looming crisis hangs heavy in the air, sparking speculation of an imminent rate cut by the Bank of England come June if the downward spiral persists. The sixth-largest economy finds itself teetering on the brink, as rising unemployment and negative payrolls spell trouble for its economic stability.
Amidst the turmoil, global layoffs shift into fifth gear, painting a grim picture of economic uncertainty worldwide. Platforms like Indeed report layoffs, while ZipRecruiter notes a hiring slowdown, dubbing it the “Big Freeze.” Interestingly, employees opt for stability, leading to the phenomenon economists term the “Big Stay,” following the tumultuous “Great Resignation” of 2021.
Adding fuel to the fire, historical data reveals a chilling correlation: since the mid-1970s, all national recessions have involved California. This prompts speculation about the state’s predictive power in forecasting nationwide economic downturns, highlighting the interconnectedness of regional and national economies.
Indeed is undergoing layoffs, while ZipRecruiter reports a hiring slowdown I’ve termed the "Big Freeze." Interestingly, employees are also staying put, leading to a phenomenon economists have called the "Big Stay." Following the 'Great Resignation' of 2021, it's intriguing to see… t.co/Dk2BgYO5rs pic.twitter.com/MaGz8Fk6wd
— Warn Tracker 2.0 (@j77324) May 13, 2024
Since mid-1970s, all national recessions involve California. Or put it another way, the conditional probability of the national unemployment rate spiking given what California looks like right now is quite high. pic.twitter.com/T5W4f160W5
— Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) May 13, 2024