- Unemployment Rate Increase:
- The unemployment rate in the United States has risen from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.0%.
- This increase is significant, especially considering the relatively low rates observed in recent years.
- 36-Month Moving Average:
- The fact that the unemployment rate has crossed above its 36-month moving average is noteworthy.
- Historically, such occurrences have often preceded rapid spikes in the jobless rate.
- Economic Cycles and Recessions:
- In previous economic cycles, when the unemployment rate crossed above its moving average, it was often followed by economic challenges.
- The coincidence with the economy falling into a recession is a cause for vigilance.
- Job Losses:
- 1.5 million Americans have lost their full-time jobs in just 6 months.
- This sharp decline in employment further underscores the potential strain on the labor market.
While it’s too early to definitively conclude that the labor market is cracking, these indicators warrant close monitoring.
Yes, it appears so. The unemployment rate is rising while many new jobs are part-time, and the Labor Force Participation rate remains at multi-decade lows outside of the Covid era. These are concerning signs for the labor market.https://t.co/hMTv5vtKUz
— David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) June 23, 2024