The US unemployment rate surpasses 36-month average

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  • Unemployment Rate Increase:
  • 36-Month Moving Average:
    • The fact that the unemployment rate has crossed above its 36-month moving average is noteworthy.
    • Historically, such occurrences have often preceded rapid spikes in the jobless rate.
  • Economic Cycles and Recessions:
    • In previous economic cycles, when the unemployment rate crossed above its moving average, it was often followed by economic challenges.
    • The coincidence with the economy falling into a recession is a cause for vigilance.
  • Job Losses:
    • 1.5 million Americans have lost their full-time jobs in just 6 months.
    • This sharp decline in employment further underscores the potential strain on the labor market.
See also  San Francisco Fed warns of possible unemployment spike amid cooling labor data.

While it’s too early to definitively conclude that the labor market is cracking, these indicators warrant close monitoring.

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