Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Déjà vu 2008 pic.twitter.com/V6ZMYE5wKF — C invest (@mikael_aune) December 9, 2024 Government jobs keep making NFP look (a bit) stronger than it is. One might say, who cares whether the government or private sector created jobs? A job is a job. However, government jobs mostly don't add new value like private-sector jobs and over the …
Here is a great research paper by an academic that explains why unemployment claims are so low. https://t.co/WN4F9MI3IB — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 1, 2024
⚠️VOLKSWAGEN PLANS TO CLOSE AT LEAST 3 GERMAN FACTORIES AND CUT THOUSANDS OF JOBS⚠️ The largest EU carmaker also plans to lay off TENS OF THOUSANDS of people out of its 300,000 workforce and slash pay by 10%. Brace for more rise in German unemployment👇https://t.co/6u5jTlo3xn — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 15, 2024 Unemployment Rate …
by confoundedinterest17 Thunderstruck! Interest rates should be thunderstruck when realization dawns that the recend BLS jobs reporr was grossly mismeasured. National unemployment was 8.7% in this month’s Rasmussen Reports Real Unemployment and significantly more than double the 4.1% rate officially reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. Mortgage rates are rising again with Friday’s surprising jobs report. But as it just …
“The group with the fastest spike in unemployment appears to be 25 to 34-year-olds with a bachelor’s degree or higher. Their unemployment rate has nearly doubled in the last 4 months, from 2.1% to 4.0%. This is the biggest non-Covid surge since tabulations began in 2000.” The group with the fastest spike in unemployment appears …
A harbinger of China’s economic decline is back. The rate of urban youth unemployment has been a commonly-cited gauge of the country’s financial stability. Last year — amid a stagnating economy and slackening labor market — it reached record highs. In June 2023, the percentage of jobless 16- to 24-year-olds hit a peak of 21.3%. …
Attitudes about the labor market are deteriorating. Fresh low in the Labor Differential. Not a welcome sign for unemployment pic.twitter.com/kw8mIH0VYy — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 25, 2024 Some layoffs announced in August/September :Intel : 15,000 employeesDell : 12,500 employeesSAP : 10,000 employeesCisco : 5,600 employeesStellantis : 2,450 employees GM : 1,695 employeesAmazon : 15% …
https://twitter.com/NeilMispelaar/status/1838357686825443390
by Mike Shedlock Continued weekly unemployment claims have fallen from 1.87 million on July 20 to 1.83 million on September 7. Why? The level of 27 week or longer unemployment hit 1.533 million in August of 2024. That is up from 1.203 million in February and 1.050 million in January of 2023. Expiring Unemployment Benefits …
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1835572094702108992 🇩🇪 Germany is no longer in the top 20 richest countries in the world* *Measured by GDP per capita in USD adjusted for purchasing power. https://t.co/oRY2YCNm1d pic.twitter.com/qAGS9qnH1N — PiQ (@PiQSuite) September 16, 2024 Is there any industry other than luxury handbags and obesity drugs where Europe is still leading against US corporations? pic.twitter.com/2nO15cYNq9 — …
Stocks 📉 often lead the way in economic 📉, with unemployment 📈 only after the damage is done. This happened in both 2000 & 2008—Nasdaq collapsed 📉, followed by a 📈 in unemployment. This highlights why unemployment is a **lagging indicator** when it comes to stock trends. pic.twitter.com/uieAbRkjK3 — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) September 5, …
The job openings rate has fallen to 4.55%, just a whisker above the 4.5% rate that Fed Governor Christopher Waller has identified as the tipping point at which unemployment could surge if openings fall any further. Get out of stocks. Now. pic.twitter.com/1qdqibEd05 — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 4, 2024 YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP: US …
"If AI is having such a profound impact on call centers, telemarketing, and other business process outsourcing jobs, then unemployment in the Philippines and India should be moving higher. But that is not what the data is showing." – Apollo Sløk pic.twitter.com/zkPGelkn6B — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 4, 2024
90% of US cities saw a rise in year over year unemployment rates in July, according to the BLS. pic.twitter.com/RBvcLcyOOC — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 3, 2024 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 90% of US cities experienced a rise in year-over-year unemployment rates in July. Specifically, jobless rates increased in 350 out of 389 …
“The question is how much longer can the US economy be propped up by asset prices?” The answer is: the economy is being propped by government spending that gooses asset prices at the expense of the people that pay for it through #inflation https://t.co/a96qCMia2P — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) August 29, 2024 Initial claims begins to …
https://twitter.com/RaymieMark/status/1829162596492292106 What stage? https://t.co/nl1mq3RFPD — KKGB (@INArteCarloDoss) August 29, 2024 Pending Home Sales in the United States decreased 8.50 percent in July of 2024 over the same month in the previous year.https://t.co/NHmalX7Rux pic.twitter.com/WOKdO4kX1W — TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) August 29, 2024 The other sectors of the economy are pulling the rest of the weight, buoyed by …
by Jhoffman12 To start, I am not a Doomer and I have money in the market. I was looking at the unemployment rate recently just out of curiosity and saw a correlation between a recession and whenever there was a rise, which makes sense of course. What struck me though is when I started adding other …
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls US Treasury yields fell by up to 5 basis points to 3.807% as investors anticipated larger Fed rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled readiness to cut inte… More here: https://t.co/AdIot28g1y pic.twitter.com/rGam65VO7z — TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) August 23, 2024 Powell: "the time has come" for the central bank …
They will fake the economic data just like they did during Weimar Germany, and you won't know you are in a recession or a depression until you are waiting in the bread lines. It's called "political arithmetic" and it's always used during periods of monetary debasement and rampant… pic.twitter.com/7hgKSCF8QD — TheRoadtoWiganPier (@RoadtoWiganPier) August 17, 2024
by Mike Shedlock Age group 25-35 was very hard hit in Friday’s job report. Overall unemployment rose 0.2 percentage points. For age group 25-34 unemployment jumped by 0.4 PP. Data from BLS, chart by Mish June to July Rise in Unemployment in Percentage Points (PP) 16-19: +0.3 PP from 12.1% to 12.4% 20-24: +0.2 PP …
Do yourself a favor and spend 30 seconds looking at this chart and then ask yourself how likely it is that the unemployment rate will just move sideways from here. pic.twitter.com/LCcFt38T9d — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) August 9, 2024 Unemployment Rate ticking up pic.twitter.com/EN6JIzCNNd — ChartingCycles (@ChartingCycles) August 2, 2024 U.S. Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time …
The elite always care about unemployment right around the time their asset prices go tits up https://t.co/b25hVgv4RW — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 8, 2024 Only 25% of the unemployed is filing for unemployment benefits in July. That has further dropped from 31% in the beginning of the year —and this is while unemployment rate is …
"The formula for current U3 doesn’t included immigration after 2022" So unemployment is worse if you include all the illegals Biden let in https://t.co/mMLn70eql7 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 7, 2024 It's strange that credit card delinquencies are rising without much unemployment. Normally dq's follow job losses. pic.twitter.com/ksJHYL6OWX — Random Walk (@MosesSternstein) August 7, 2024
The economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, with the unemployment rate skyrocketing up to 4.3% from its low last year. Moreover – 7.2 million Americans are now unemployed.
While GDP and inflation are critical indicators of economic health, unemployment also plays a significant role in market dynamics. High unemployment can lead to decreased consumer spending, which in turn affects corporate earnings and investor confidence. This can trigger market volatility and spread widening as investors seek safer assets. Q2 2007 & July stock outlook: …
BY DAVID HAGGITH And I’m DEAD WRONG on all of it (if all that you read is true)… but so is the Fed! Photo by Andrej Lišakov on Unsplash I’ve had, one might say, a great run for all of my predictions this year. Every step along the way, I was able to show where they came true. …
by Tom McClellan A lot of people are going to resist accepting the message of this week’s chart, but I am going to show it anyway. There is a strong positive correlation between the US unemployment rate and the monthly sunspot count. The trick is that I am using a 36-month forward offset in the …
Alternate Unemployment Charts The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The …
IS THE US LABOR MARKET STRONG? Nothing could be further from the truth Number of unemployed Americans for 27 weeks & over SKYROCKETED by 36% year-over-year in June This is 6th straight month of increased Every time it jumped so much in the past, a recession in the US occurred pic.twitter.com/RDOcOvSNZu — Global Markets Investor …
