One number jumped out at me today.
Nearly 2 million Americans have now been unemployed for more than six months.
That is up by more than 500,000 from a year ago.
Even more interesting, long term unemployed workers now make up 27.5% of all unemployed Americans.
That does not happen in a labor market that is getting easier.
It suggests something many people have been saying for months: finding a job is one thing, finding a new job after being out of work for a while is becoming much harder.
Then there is the second problem.
People keep hearing that inflation is cooling, but their wallets are telling them something different.
And honestly, both things can be true at the same time.
A basket of goods that cost $100 in early 2020 now costs about $128.
If inflation had simply stayed near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, that same basket would be closer to $113 today.
That $15 gap is why so many people feel disconnected from the headlines saying inflation is improving.
The inflation rate came down.
The prices did not.
That is the part that gets lost in a lot of economic discussions.
Most prices do not magically return to where they were before. Once they move higher, they tend to stay there.
So now we have two pressures showing up at the same time.
More people are getting stuck in long-term unemployment.
And the cost of living remains permanently higher than where many expected it would be.
The question is whether these are temporary cracks in the economy or early signs of a much bigger slowdown.