Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Small business owners across several states are reducing employee hours and in some cases staff numbers because of sharp increases in liability and health insurance premiums. Many report premiums jumping 20-40 percent in the past year. This is forcing difficult decisions to keep the doors open. Some owners say they are barely breaking even after …
The Wall Street Journal ran stories lately saying left wing political violence is rising fast and is now just as serious as right wing violence. They pushed back on the old idea that its mostly a right wing problem and said both sides are driving real threats right now. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/the-radicals-next-door-ff654a2c What we have are:•The assassination …
The top 20% of Americans now own the majority of US real estate: The top 1% of US earners hold a record $6.1 trillion in real estate, followed by the next 19% who hold $21.0 trillion, an all-time high. This means the top 20% own a combined $27.1 trillion, or 56.4% of total US real …
by Martin Armstrong The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 0.4% in February alone and is now running at 2.8% annually, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still sitting at 3.0%. That is not progress. That is stagnation well above the Fed’s 2% target, and it …
The world is moving away from Washington, since the war on Iran has cost America their dollar dominance. At least something good is coming out of this war, with heavy sacrifices from Iran. — Melike (@MelikeEcin) April 10, 2026
Reporter’s summation of today’s episode from Frontline Africa news podcast: Five things you should take away from this episode. The number one thing is that this is now a four-front war. Iran from the east, Hezbollah from the north, the Houthis from Yemen in the south, the Iraqi militias hitting American targets across the Middle …
🇮🇷🇺🇸 "This was a BETRAYAL OF DIPLOMACY. We were attacked 2 times within a span of 9 months when we were in the middle of a negotiating process to resolve the nuclear issue." —Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Baghaei "So no one can trust the US diplomacy." — concludes https://t.co/zxInhNQwb8 pic.twitter.com/BHbjyUZZih — Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) March …
by Michael After this week is over, there may be no turning back. President Trump is literally threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power grid, and the Iranians cannot do a thing to prevent that from happening. But in response, the Iranians are threatening to destroy oil and gas infrastructure all over the Persian Gulf. The Iranians …
10-year Treasury yields hit 4.4% for the first time since July 2025. But war, exploding debt and soaring inflation will drive yields much higher. Without big rate cuts and massive QE (a mistake), stocks and real estate will crash, resulting in a financial crisis worse than 2008. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 20, 2026 🚨 …
March 20 (Reuters) – United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby said on Friday the airline will cancel about 5% of this year’s planned flights in the short term, as jet fuel prices surge due to the Middle East conflict. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense …
WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING!! Insiders are buying COMEX Gold options at $15,000 – $20,000 for December 2026. Gold is around $4,700 right now. This means THEY EXPECT THE GOLD PRICE TO TRIPLE. And if you think that’s just gambling YOU’RE COMPLETELY WRONG. Let me explain this in simple words. This position did NOT …
POPEYES FRANCHISE GOES BROKE ON $233M IN CHICKEN One of the largest Popeyes franchise operators in the U.S. just filed for Chapter 11 after losing $18.8 million despite generating about $233 million in sales. The company, Sailormen Inc., has already closed more than 20 locations while thousands of employees wait to see which stores survive …
The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100 ✓ Central bankers focused on inflation, the wrong risk ✓ …
by Michael Why are so many crazy things happening all at once? I have been writing a lot about the chaos that has erupted in the Middle East, and now chaos is erupting all over America. Just when you thought that the craziest winter ever was coming to end, a “megastorm” has formed right over …
New economic data released today delivered a troubling combination for the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy. The second estimate of Q4 GDP came in at just 0.7 percent, far below the 1.4 percent economists expected and marking the second weakest growth reading in the past 3.5 years. At the same time, inflation pressures …
Source : https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-rising-gas-prices-during-iran-operation-if-they-rise-they-rise-2026-03-05/ President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was not concerned about rising U.S. gas prices driven by the widening Iran conflict, telling Reuters in an exclusive interview that the U.S. military operation was his priority. “I don’t have any concern about it,” he said, when asked about the higher prices at the …
They're hiding a job market collapse. Hiding the job market collapse keeps the stock market higher. Keeping the stock market higher lets the top 10% keep spending. What happens when the charade ends? https://t.co/cDYrPPyai7 pic.twitter.com/38KbSeVM7f — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 17, 2026 Cass Freight index plunges. Only weaker at the depths of the GFC. pic.twitter.com/lWKGk8TVcX …
Roughly a million borrowers defaulted on their federal student loans late last year, with millions delinquent on their payments and sliding toward the same fate. That’s according to federal data and the latest Household Debt and Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which dropped on Tuesday. The report includes student loan …
Private credit has surged in popularity since post-financial crisis regulations discouraged banks from serving riskier borrowers. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned after a pair of private credit-backed companies declared bankruptcy that problems in credit are rarely isolated. Companies that are most linked to the asset class, such as Blue Owl Capital, as well as …
"Rent is throwing money away!" Meanwhile she pays $5,155 a month for a mortgage and $3,241 of it VANISHES into interest and taxes.pic.twitter.com/NZq2A4SX1P — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) January 23, 2026 There is no such thing as home price appreciation outside of inflation. Its a wealth transfer from young to old via interest rates.pic.twitter.com/GrK2AVg8LM — Darth …
Both Fannie and Freddie report that serious delinquencies in multifamily are rising to multi year highs. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/BmgxaYA14C — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) January 15, 2026 Florida condo crash happening in real-time. Seller cut price to $256k. Back in 2022, it was valued at over $1 million. 75% haircut in 3 years. And 50% over …
✨Gold and silver will keep rising until something breaks. The dire warning is loud and clear, as was the lead-up to the global financial crisis. pic.twitter.com/PzVQBP0oHl — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 15, 2026 December 2026 Fed Fund Futures going the wrong way… pic.twitter.com/H8HANlr0Zm — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 15, 2026 2/ 1 of …
Every warning light is flashing red and Wall Street is still pretending this is just a vibes problem. “The last lender” before the Fed – is it starting to approach critical levels?🛑 JPMorgan’s LCR in Q4 2025 stood at 115%… the lowest level since 2019. And this is after the bank reduced its repo book …
Took a look at the CPI report. Food is up 0.7% and natural gas service is up 4.4% The only reason is flat is because of the drop in oil prices and used car prices. Actual living costs are up. pic.twitter.com/UDwkcC2tnp — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 13, 2026 Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St …
This is the part where everyone points to spending and jobs like proof everything’s fine, right before both roll over at the same time. THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IS SET UP PERFECTLY! 1. Consumers are still spending money they don’t have. – Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP – But personal savings are near …
Everything’s lining up for a Q1 shock. THE YEN PARADOX 82,640 contracts betting against the yen. Second highest since July 2024. The Bank of Japan just confessed this morning they have barely begun. After hiking to a 30 YEAR HIGH at 0.75 percent, the yen did not strengthen. It collapsed to 157.77. Finance Minister Katayama …
The world is drowning in debt and nobody is sounding the alarm. Over $300 trillion owed globally, more than three times what the planet produces in a year. The U.S. alone carries $38 trillion, Europe’s biggest economies are maxed out, and developing nations are borrowing faster than they have in fifty years. Rates go up …
This is how trouble sneaks in, quietly and all at once. When every major bond market starts pushing yields higher together, it means money is getting expensive everywhere, not just somewhere. Stocks can ignore that for a while, but balance sheets cannot. By the time equities notice, the damage is already baked in. A HUGE …
Plus, Susie Wiles breaks cover, a new name in the frame for the Federal Reserve and Hegseth says the Pentagon won’t release the Sept. 2 boat strike video Good morning. New data released Tuesday showed that the unemployment rate has risen from 4% when President Trump took office to 4.6% in November. A sizable drift …
