Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
WE HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS BROKE… Searches for ‘can’t pay credit card’ smash records… 11% of accounts now seriously delinquent… Savings rate vanishes… 🚨 Americans have never been this broke before. Google searches for “can’t pay credit card” just hit an all time high. At the same time, US consumer confidence has collapsed to one …
Kevin Hassett basically said record credit card spending is a strong economy sign and people are cooking him for it. Most families aren’t maxing cards because times are great, they’re doing it to survive groceries, rent, and gas right now. Talk about tone deaf! People are spending more on credit cards and for gas and …
Credit card delinquency rates among borrowers under 35 reached 8.2 percent in Q1 according to new Federal Reserve data. This is the highest level since 2009 for that age group. High interest rates and cost of living pressures are the main contributors. Banks are tightening lending standards in response to the rise. The economy is …
Hassett on American consumers: "Credit card spending is through the roof. They're spending more on gasoline, but they're spending more on everything else too." pic.twitter.com/zayCSaxhwr — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 6, 2026
via notayesmanseconomics Today I thought I would take a look at the world of private credit and see firstly what is going on and secondly what risks it poses. Let us start with what it is via Blackrock. Private credit represents part of the broader alternative’s universe, referring to non-traditional assets that provide flexible lending solutions. Private credit …
The retail sector is where the pain is that he’s referring to pic.twitter.com/04gIC0uWkj — Travis Rothell (@TRothell62855) April 28, 2026 Jamie Dimon today: "The way it's going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis." He added that when a credit recession hits across all lending, it will be "worse than people think. It …
AXP is being framed as a steady compounder at a reasonable multiple, but that stability depends on more moving parts than the headline growth suggests. Earnings growth at ~14% over 1Y and 5Y, with a P/E of 19.77 and forward P/E of 16.03, is pricing continuity rather than acceleration. That continuity assumption matters because American …
Is a Private-Credit Crisis Imminent? The rapid expansion of opaque and minimally regulated lending outside the traditional banking system over the past 15 years largely flew—as intended—under regulators’ radar. Now, however, signs of trouble in shadow banking are multiplying, with rising redemptions and notable fund failures stoking fears of a 2008-style crisis. Though we might …
Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes. This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities). The last major signal was at …
Housing markets don't all of a sudden crash. First they freeze. No one buying, more and more sellers slowly piling up. Why does this take place? Because home owners are broke morons with 90% of their net worth in something they didn't earn, didn't "invest" in….. They… pic.twitter.com/7lLefputWI — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 24, 2026 …
Interesting clip from a recent conversation featuring Matthew Piepenburg. He argues that rising debt levels are forcing governments into a corner where they prioritize protecting bond markets over preserving currency value… something we may be starting to see play out globally. Curious what people think about this perspective. h/t thetimeisgold
THE FED IS NOW PRIVATELY PREPARING FOR A POSSIBLE $2 TRILLION CREDIT MARKET COLLAPSE. For the first time in over a decade, the Fed has started directly asking U.S. banks to hand over their exposure numbers to the private credit market. This is the exact move regulators make when they stop trusting public numbers and …
Cracks in the US private credit market are widening: Investors requested a record -$14.0 billion in redemptions from private credit funds in Q1 2026. This is up +146% from -$5.7 billion in Q4 2025 and +278% higher than the -$3.7 billion in the full year 2024. Meanwhile, just… pic.twitter.com/wBJ3bUSW1X — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April …
https://www.wsj.com/finance/wall-street-builds-new-tool-to-bet-against-private-credit-bdf8bafa A report just dropped that should have everyone be more cautious. Major banks (Goldman, BofA, Barclays) are teaming up with S&P Global to launch a Credit-Default Swap (CDS) Index for Private Credit. If you aren’t familiar with 2008 history, this is essentially the “Big Short” alarm bell. Here’s the breakdown of why this is …
Private credit is in big trouble. Slow motion bank run byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Carlyle just capped redemptions on its flagship private credit fund after investors slammed in 15.7 percent withdrawal requests, the latest gate in a wave hitting semi-liquid vehicles. That liquidity squeeze rolls straight into bank balance sheets and regional lenders who already lag the …
First, we have our “subprime is contained” moment from the Fed. Second, the run on Blue Owl is “unprecedented.” Third, and more important than either of those, it’s **who** is doing the running. In its disclosure, the sad owl let slip the truth underneath more ridiculous spin. When investors demand 20% to 40% out of …
UBS freezing withdrawals for up to three years and firms like Apollo and BlackRock putting limits in place is not normal market behavior, that is liquidity stress showing itself in real time. People keep comparing this to 2008 like it is a straight repeat, it is not the same structure, but the core problem feels …
United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and staying above $100 next year as industry faces worst shock since COVID The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has delivered the biggest disruption to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic, and United is bracing for a future where oil prices remain high through 2027. …
Wall Street crisis spreads as shadow bank blocks withdrawal Apollo and BlackRock Cap Withdrawals — $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market Under Real Stress Apollo Global Management capped investor redemptions at one of its largest non-traded private credit funds, Apollo Debt Solutions. According to a shareholder letter, it capped redemptions at 5% of outstanding shares after …
New data reveals 40% of Americans cannot afford to pay their credit card balances each month. Americans now owe more credit card debt than at any point in history. pic.twitter.com/H51zAZd99f — FactPost (@factpostnews) March 18, 2026 A growing share of Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments, with new data showing nearly 40% …
(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among investment banks offering hedge fund clients ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit market, people with knowledge of the matter said. The firms have assembled baskets of listed companies with exposure to the space, the people said, who requested not …
The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil shock driving prices toward $100 ✓ Central bankers focused on inflation, the wrong risk ✓ …
The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/xiba9GU3z2 — Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) March 17, 2026 The market is green today and nobody's talking about the sector that refused …
via Oilprice: The Iran war is disrupting the petrocapital cycle—the flow of oil revenues from Gulf producers into global financial markets—raising the risk of a global credit crunch. Ongoing attacks, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and financial center instability (e.g., Dubai) are weakening Gulf economies and limiting their ability to recycle capital into global markets. …
Everyone is watching missiles, oil, and Wall Street. Almost nobody is paying attention to what is about to hit your grocery cart. Oil closed at $95.73 per barrel today. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil, is effectively shut. Ships are stranded. Deliveries are delayed. Markets are already reacting violently. …
While everyone is watching missiles flying across the Middle East and oil prices surging toward $100 a barrel, something extremely troubling is happening inside the financial system that directly affects retirement savings across the United States. A $33 billion private credit fund managed by Cliffwater just told investors they could not withdraw their money. Investors …
Fund Seen As ‘First Domino In Private Credit Bank Run’ Hit With Over 7% In Redemptions: THE AVALANCHE IS NEXT! *MORGAN STANLEY LIMITS REDEMPTIONS ON PRIVATE CREDIT FUND — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 11, 2026 this is a disaster *CLIFFWATER $33 BLN PRIVATE CREDIT FUND Q1 REDEMPTIONS REACH 14% And Cliffwater is interval, meaning it is …
by confoundedinterest17 We are seeing the aftermath of the Federal government’s fiscal response to the Covid outbreak of 2020. Home prices exploded following The Federal government’s spending spree. The end result? US housing is simply unaffordable for millions of households. Not really surprising given the soaring home prices following the Covid Federal spending spree.
