High yield bonds diverge from stocks, SPY moves higher while credit markets fail to confirm

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Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes.

This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities).

The last major signal was at the bottom, high yield quietly started putting in a higher low while stocks were still puking. That helped flag the turn.

Fast‑forward to now: $JNK and $HYG are not confirming this latest push in SPY. Stocks are pressing higher, high yield is stalling out.

That doesn’t guarantee a top, but when “Smart Money” refuses to play along, I take note.