Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
30-year yield at 5% is not the real shock on its own The persistence above 4.5% is the part markets keep underestimating In 2000 the 30-year sat around 6.5% at peaks But US debt levels were nowhere near today’s ~$1.9T deficit scale Now the rate is lower, but the debt base is vastly larger That …
Long-bond yields see largest one-day jump in weeks as inflation fears bake in… 3 p.m. ET Data Talk: 10-Year yield climbs to 4.33% as bond prices tumble… Market signal: Investors dumping long-term debt as “indefinite war” risk persists… Bessent-Šefčovič readout: US and EU lock arms on “Critical Minerals Action Plan”… https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes. This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities). The last major signal was at …
by confoundedinterest17 Trump’s threats of bombing Iran back to the stone age continues. But the impact on Treasury yields is interesting. As the US economy continues to grow, the US Treasury curve takes on the familiar upward slope. With rising long rates. Particularly when compared to the negative humped yield curve of a year ago. …
BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi just now on potential peace talks with the US: "We do not have any faith that negotiations with the US will yield any results. The trust level is at zero." pic.twitter.com/dnSzCrUBsa — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 31, 2026
United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and staying above $100 next year as industry faces worst shock since COVID The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has delivered the biggest disruption to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic, and United is bracing for a future where oil prices remain high through 2027. …
Yeah, GDP just falling off a cliff. pic.twitter.com/o12I4zWeDz — Derek Columbus (@columbus_derek) February 10, 2026 Goldman Sachs cuts Q4 GDP to 1.6% 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/brJug5LRqT — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 10, 2026 an overlay of 2008 & 2026… why is nobody talking about this… pic.twitter.com/oS0p2XDR2S — ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ (@hamptonism) February 10, 2026
Japan's 2-year bond yield has surpassed levels last seen during the 2007-08 crisis. pic.twitter.com/RFlJtwEfp7 — Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) February 4, 2026 we have entered fear pic.twitter.com/7wCRBfGDch — amit (@amitisinvesting) February 3, 2026 We will get another wave of inflation… …but not until we get a deflationary crash first. https://t.co/Xmk3IqpGwR — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 4, …
The long end is waking up. 30Y yield is setting up for a breakout. If this goes, bonds, stocks, commodities will make moves. This is not a small chart. pic.twitter.com/xJMzCFxLGD — Against All Odds Research (@JasonP138) February 3, 2026 Can somebody tell the 10-year yield about truflation 🤔 Kind of going the wrong way … …
The old bond market adage is that yields will keep rising until something breaks. In 2022/23, rising U.S. yields "broke" several banks by March 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank). Japanese yields are now at a 27-year high and going vertical. When does something "break" in Japan? pic.twitter.com/qMANhs6pIm — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) January 19, 2026 *JAPAN 40-YEAR …
Every warning light is flashing red and Wall Street is still pretending this is just a vibes problem. “The last lender” before the Fed – is it starting to approach critical levels?🛑 JPMorgan’s LCR in Q4 2025 stood at 115%… the lowest level since 2019. And this is after the bank reduced its repo book …
Japan's 10-Year Treasury Yield jumps to highest level in more than 27 years byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Japan will dump US bonds. h/t RobertBartus
The setup is familiar. Complacency, leverage, and the belief that this time is different. It never is. The smart money is already bracing for volatility, false rallies, and brutal reversals. “The system is insolvent. No one knows what to do next except repeat the insanity until the next bubble blows. That’ll be the one — …
This is the nightmare scenario for Japan. Rates up, yen weaker, and the one lever they pulled just made it worse. Once the 10 year breaks levels like this, control turns into theater. There really is no clean exit left. 🚨 Japanese inflation is now above US inflation for the first time since 1979. pic.twitter.com/pACaUFHHfi …
Michael Burry warns the U.S. might be headed towards full nationalization of the Bond Market 🤯👀😱 pic.twitter.com/Enwbs6ZFnS — Barchart (@Barchart) December 12, 2025 10Y 4.2 Powell is fuming — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 12, 2025 10 year yield right back up to 3 month highs despite the Fed announcing t-bill QE. The bond market is …
Rate cuts work. We need more of them. Then yields will go up to 20% — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) December 12, 2025 Rates barely reacted, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is now pushing on a string. The market – not policy – has the wheel. Next 3 months: 2-yr drifting toward 3.50–4.00% 10-yr …
The pic.twitter.com/n5DK9NBjyU — David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. (@PolarityRadio) December 8, 2025 The US 10-year yield has been in a downtrend since May (highlighted). Now it looks more like a breakout. pic.twitter.com/rVzSNwmvfi — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) December 8, 2025 A BIG STORM IS COMING!!! Look at these yields… – U.S. 10Y is …
The 30-year just broke out of its 3-month range. If it keeps rising, it may turn from a range bounce into a rising trend. US 10-year bond yield is set for its biggest weekly gain since June 2025. Despite Fed cutting rates, 10-year bond yield is above 4%. Not a good sign for risk-on assets. …
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield touched 1.917% on Thursday the highest level since 2007. It’s basically the market’s way of signaling that investors aren’t fully convinced about the Bank of Japan’s current policy path. The BOJ is stuck between two bad options: Raise rates further: yields likely push even higher, tightening conditions at a time when …
“THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUST BROKE IN TOKYO Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.41% today. That number means nothing to you. Here’s why it should terrify you. Japan owes 230% of everything it produces. It’s the most indebted nation in human history. For 35 years, they kept the lights on by borrowing at near-zero rates. …
by confoundedinterest17 Good news! Consumer prices rose only 3% YoY. Lower than the growth in M2 Money of 4.66% YoY and Federal government spending of 7.8% YoY. While consumer prices rose only 3% YoY, housing (shelter) rose 3.65 YoY. The US Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from 2Y-30Y.
Japan just set a record. The 30-year bond yield jumped to 3.32%. That is not a number. That is 235% of GDP hanging over the country like a guillotine. Interest on the 30-year portion alone could now be roughly 7.8 trillion USD equivalent annually. The yen is below ¥150, a drop of 11% in weeks. …
Gold will continue to climb and if Japan sells bonds real slow in the hopes that no one will notice … … … will not help. — K. (@Kayteetav) October 6, 2025 America is Insolvent. The Dollar is Worthless. pic.twitter.com/uIwQxBp2dz — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) October 6, 2025 Facts: business demand is way down. Prices are …
US stocks are too expensive. International stocks have outperformed by a wide margin this year Treasury Bonds now have a higher yield than U.S. Stocks, a change from what we've seen over the last 20 years pic.twitter.com/GU2fcssmN4 — Barchart (@Barchart) October 1, 2025 RIP Morgan Stanley 🫡😂 https://t.co/PGL4x4pvEr — Barchart (@Barchart) October 1, 2025 Here …
JUST IN 🚨: Japan 10-Year Bond Yield hits highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/tYCu25ZL7R — Barchart (@Barchart) September 26, 2025 Bitcoin Major trend breach. This not good.This very bad. pic.twitter.com/zdp0u6thRk — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 26, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 Participants in the mortgage market are hoping for relief in the mortgage market when The Fed lowers rates tomorrow. But the reality is the the bond market is expecting declining short-term rates, but not much change at the 10-year tenor. Mortgage rates have fallen since October 23, 2023 as the yield curve has …
via notayesmanseconomics As this week has progressed with the Western Capitalist Imperialists struggling with rising bond yields China can afford a wry smile. We noted the all-time lows being seen as its benchmark 10 year yield went below 2% as autumn turned to winter last year. Well now it is 1.75% as those invested in …
When investors flee currency for a tangible asset, it signals fear of fiscal collapse and unchecked debt. It's really unusual for 30-year Treasury yield to rise in a Fed easing cycle. It's even more unusual for 30-year yield to rise with all the world's major central banks in an easing cycle. This tells you monetary …
Yup. Basically pic.twitter.com/mKedOV6P44 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 31, 2025 The Federal Reserve is facing pressure on two fronts as inflation picks up and the labor market shows signs of slipping. Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to explain why this puts the central bank in a difficult policy spot heading into …
