Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
US 2s vs 30s gap widest since 2022. Yield curves keep steepening globally, particularly driven by 30-year yields. In the US, the gap between 2-year and 30-year bond yields has reached the widest since January 2022. pic.twitter.com/elg9pKFavG — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 28, 2025 Japan's 30yr is now up almost 1ppt YTDUS 30yr +12bps pic.twitter.com/5rIOLSCFK8 …
https://t.co/Apd6TKSJQY here is the full story in detail! — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) August 25, 2025
If they cut the bond market will instantly drive the yield back up . Rates are based on risk we are an insolvent nation drowning in debt that can't even afford the interest only payments . — Jason the mason (@NobodyThan) August 13, 2025 YES. The Fed is going to cut with the most lagged …
The 30-year Treasury yield just pierced the 5% ceiling again. That line has held for two decades. Every time it’s tested, the bond market snaps back. April 6 was the last time it happened. Stocks dipped. Bonds rallied. Today looks like a rerun. The yield hit 5.01% before retreating to 4.91% by close. That’s the …
Market runs on manufactured momentum and ticking clock… $VIX puts are being bought just before $SPY ramps like what's shown below to suppress vol further and cause an automatic rise in equity prices. This also happened yesterday and Monday. They didn't need to do this last week as the momentum trade was on its own. …
I must admit the situation is getting funny. First of all I’m not a big fan of Powell, because I think this guy has already lost a powerful game hitting 10Y/3M 1000 days in inversion beating previous 1929 record 700 days. Reality is : if even that’s his achievement – he’s just buying time at …
The correlation is not perfect every time, but it is well-supported by data and market behavior over multiple cycles. One more final push and bonds switch to bullish. Here's the 10Y. Right on the edge of resistance.$TLT pic.twitter.com/ZJly6dvUAe — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) June 24, 2025 You are here. Right before a HUGE Fed rate cut …
Corporate insiders are selling shares at fastest pace since election last year. pic.twitter.com/VkxFnUwnvo — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) June 12, 2025 Investors are passing on stocks and flocking to the 4% yield in money markets even though the dollar is falling in value. Interesting. Lots of people have no interest in this market even though it rises …
by confoundedinterest17 I’ll feel a whole lot better when CMBS office serious delinquenies get below 10%. But serious delinquencies on office space is currently at 10.59%. The US Treasury yield curve is steepening. Office delinquencies are likely to rise in Los Angeles as Governor Newsom sits on his greasy hands as LA burns.
🇯🇵 Japan's 40-year bond yield is on the move again. Someone get the Bank of Japan on the phone. pic.twitter.com/mkrag1Z9sc — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) May 28, 2025 Bloomberg: “Japan’s auction of 40-year bonds Wednesday met demand that was the weakest since July, an outcome that risks fueling further volatility in global debt markets” Listen to …
Japan is at the heart of the global rise in long-term yields. To be honest, I'm surprised the rise has been allowed to be as rapid as it has. At 240% debt to GDP, Japan really can't allow long-term yields to keep rising the way they have. This is where fiscal dominance is acute. pic.twitter.com/a118IbKVk8 …
When Japan’s 40-year yield spikes…It’s not just a Japan problem.It’s a global leverage problem ticking louder. — FromRedToRiches (@FromRedToRiches) May 20, 2025 Japan’s 10 year yield the past month💀☠️: I mean this is so far below where their 40 year bond is trading which trades at 3.5% plus. Inflation is way higher than 1.52% My …
Moody's assessment is right. No other major developed economy is under pressure to grow its GDP by nearly 5% simply to service its debt. None. This is a central pillar of the bearish case for the US dollar. FX is a relative game and the urgency for rate cuts in the US is… pic.twitter.com/53XMF3p6f8 — …
In 2022, people watched prices surge and blamed gas stations and grocery stores. Today feels different. Prices are still high, but the real concern has shifted. The fear now is not about inflation today. It is about trust tomorrow. People are no longer just worried about paying more. They are starting to wonder whether the …
Bank of America’s sitting on $700B in bonds bought at 1% yields in 2020. Those bonds are down ~40%, hiding $100B in losses. Meanwhile, the Treasury needs to refinance $9T and issue $2.5T in new debt this year. Foreign buyers like China are dumping Treasuries for gold. If Trump disrupts this debt recycling, we’re staring …
Switzerland’s Negative Yields Are Back And It’s a Global Red Flag, Not a Local Anomaly A remarkable event just unfolded quietly in global bond markets Swiss government bonds with maturities up to 4 years are once again offering negative yields. Investors are literally paying the Swiss government for the privilege of lending them money. While …
🚨The US job market is deteriorating: Long-term unemployment hit 1.67 MILLION in April, the highest in 3 YEARS. The share of individuals unemployed for more than 27 weeks of total unemployment hit 23.5%, the highest in 3 years. This has never occurred outside of recessions. pic.twitter.com/wLh8mDxEDN — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 5, 2025 🚨 …
by confoundedinterest17 The good news? The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is normalizing to January 2022 levels. One the mortgage side, adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) share is the highest since the financial crisis (2008). As Trump continues to stand up for Americans and China (and Democrats) continues to fight, the S&P 500 index lags MSCI …
Bessent: We have a process in place. We are working on the big 15 economies. First, we had a fantastic meeting with Japan yesterday. I believe there have been calls with the EU.. and I believe India is also talking — that is moving very quickly. pic.twitter.com/ZudcssnRcR — Acyn (@Acyn) April 17, 2025 The rate …
by Tough_Storage_848 Considered by the FEDs to be one of the most reliable recession indicators, the 10Y/3M yield curve just un-inverted on Apr 10, and nobody here seems to be noticing this. Historically, if 10Year yields < 3Month yields, an inverted yield curve, typically indicates imminent recession within 6 months. It has successfully predicted every US …
This is one of the clearest signals yet that the Bank of Japan has lost control of the long end of the curve. Japan’s 30-year yield hitting 2.845% its highest since 2004 isn’t just a local event. This has global knock-on effects: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S.… https://t.co/nQ0bTI4toI — EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) …
The inflation-adjusted yield on 30-year Treasuries hit the highest level since 2008 last week, at 2.7%. pic.twitter.com/gDjLYv7RNh — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 13, 2025 the dollar is fine they said.. yeah investors keep dumping debt and the dollar like a 3rd world country. pic.twitter.com/4odlHpSQBz — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) April 14, 2025
US Treasuries fail to attract demand – Lower confidence in U.S. economy signals alarm! h/t RobertBartus
The yen is quietly making a comeback—and this isn’t just a temporary blip. After years of suppression, the Japanese currency is primed to normalize and, yes, soar. The writing is on the wall, and Japan’s fiscal policies, coupled with shifting global dynamics, are setting the stage for a much stronger yen. For years, the yen …
Japanese 10-Year Bond Yield jumps to highest level since the Global Financial Crisis byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1905008623799177521
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/40-year-bond-yield
This is what happens when a nation buries itself in endless monetary easing and ignores basic fiscal reality. The Bank of Japan has been suppressing yields for years, but cracks are forming, and the moment they lose control, it’s game over. *JAPAN 10-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 1.4%, HIGHEST SINCE 2010 Leeroy Japankins pretending it does …
The market is WAY too pessimistic on this dividend achiever Mondelez $MDLZ! It’s trading for 16x earnings and owns iconic snack brands like Oreos, Chips Ahoy, etc. They also have a near 3.5% yield and grow their dividend 10%+ annually? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/gMViiVGdAY — Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) January 22, 2025
