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by confoundedinterest17 Because they’re young. Bonds that is. Longer term bonds and notes are preferred by primary dealers over short-term Treasury bills. The US Treasury yield curve 10Y-2Y is finally positive after years of being negative. And the all important 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.56%.
This is arguably one of the most critical macro developments unfolding today. Even when adjusted for inflation, the 30-year yield has reached its highest level in 15 years. The US cannot sustain this for long, in my opinion. It will need either higher inflation or a… pic.twitter.com/CBshI3xGwd — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January …
by AnonymousTimewaster Is now the time to start buying UK Gilts? With the Bank of England ramping up its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, the dynamics around UK gilts are becoming increasingly intriguing. The BofE’s aggressive offloading of bonds has not only driven up yields but also sparked debate about its …
Yikes. So how can Japan keep their 10 year bond yield at 1.1% with their 30 year bond ripping higher? Their 2 year bond yield is .6% None of this seems sustainable Their currency will get trashed. https://t.co/zRpxIojQl6 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 15, 2025 And yet isn’t enough… JGB …
by Ok_Significance_4008 A high 20-year Treasury yield of 5% can negatively impact the stock market in several ways: Increased borrowing costs: Higher yields make borrowing more expensive for companies, impacting their profitability and potentially slowing down economic growth. This can reduce investor confidence and negatively impact stock prices. Reduced attractiveness of …
China 30 year continues to drift lower, yield 1.854%. Deflation and the lost decade are real possibilities. With over capacity in manufacturing it’s only a matter of time before deflation reached the west. pic.twitter.com/GUzESzA0QB — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) January 8, 2025 🚨DEFLATIONARY IS COMING TO CHINA🚨 China's economy has …
by confoundedinterest17 Was Freddie King correct? Is the US economy going down?? The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) has inverted to the positive side after a prolonged NEGATIVE inversion (from July 6, 2022 to Sept 5, 2024) marking the longest period of negative inversion since August 18, 1978 – May 1, …
BUT IF YOU BUY MICROSTRATEGY WITHIN THE NEXT 20 MINUTES, WE’LL DOUBLE YOUR BTC YIELD! not a ponzi btw byu/Virtual_Seaweed7130 inwallstreetbets
China’s $11 trillion government bond market has moved into uncharted territory. As their government rolls out widespread stimulus, yields are hitting record lows. The gap between yields in Japan and China are now at a record low of just ~70 basis points. China is in trouble. pic.twitter.com/j1vrmW6Hxe — The Kobeissi …
10 year bond yield surges up to 4.611% 💀 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 24, 2024 ⚠️US LEVERAGE LOAN DEFAULTS ARE SKYROCKETING⚠️ US firms are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest pace since the 2020 CRISIS. This comes as firms took MASSIVELY on debt during the low rates environment …
Conference Board: the leading economic index rose in Nov for the 1st time in over 2 years and now no longer signals an impending recession; the increase (which immediately followed the presidential election) was driven mostly by surging equity prices: pic.twitter.com/xqKrZuBtvi — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 20, 2024 h/t …
#recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition https://t.co/vl8Sc7lSwq — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 22, 2024 #recession … #GFC2 US edition https://t.co/5LZ6pkEmk0 — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 22, 2024 There is also a divergence between the SP500 and the HY Bond A-D Line. Read more about this topic from 2022 at https://t.co/x35ebJJ6Od. https://t.co/qmvpv2h4eH …
For the first time in 22 years, the 10-year Treasury yield has exceeded the S&P 500's earnings yield. The S&P 500 equity risk premium has also fallen to -0.44%, well below its long-term average. Over the last 5 years, the difference in yield has fallen by 5 percentage points… pic.twitter.com/hR5gSb35HH …
The Insider Transaction Ratio (sales-to-buys) is back in bearish territory. via @hmeisler pic.twitter.com/kcAv13VryR — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) November 12, 2024 Good Morning 🙃 pic.twitter.com/TD7ZOUTVtR — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) November 12, 2024 The 10 year yield is ripping again. About to hit 4.40%. New highs. Wen 8% mortgage rates? 💀 pic.twitter.com/nnsKVEXlhv …
by confoundedinterest17 Put it where you want it. Trump that is! The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y CMT) went negative on April 1, 2024. And remains positive. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y CMT (constant maturity Treasury) peaked locally on March 29, 2024 and then fell, eventually turning negative on April 1, 2024. …
Treasury yields surged Wednesday as Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris, with a Republican sweep in Congress possibly also in the cards. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 17 basis points to trade at 4.461%, hitting its highest level since July as investors bet a …
BREAKING: Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo fell by $50B to $155B for the first time since 2021. Normally when this money market fund liquidity leaves RRP it goes into U.S. Treasuries, driving yields down. Instead the U.S. 10 year yield rocketed to 4.365% this week. BREAKING: Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo fell …
Last time we had this combination, it wasn’t good for equities: 1- % YC un-inverting after reaching extreme levels 2- Monthly RSI > 70 Additionally, some valuation metrics are worse than they were in 2008. But maybe this time is different.. Last time we had this combination, it wasn't good …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is crumbing down under Biden/Harris. No, the economy doesn’t hurt so good. The Citi Economic Surprise Index just rose to its highest level since April. The 10Y Treasury yield just rose to its highest level since August.
by James Hickman It’s very hard to overstate just how obliterated the global economy was following World War II. Europe was in ruins, with many major cities having been bombed back into the Stone Age. Japan had literally been nuked. And just about every economy around the world that still …
by confoundedinterest17 Perhaps Harris/Walz should adopt the Imperial March from Star Wars as their theme song. Between Biden/Harris uncontrolled immigration disaster helping to destroy New York City, Harris’ statement that she won’t do anything differntly from Biden/Harris is alarming. The NY Empire survey crashed from +11.5 to -11.9 – the lowest since May. That …
2/ The yield curve just steepened by 1%, coming out of an inversion The last time we saw this was in 2020 during the COVID-19 recession pic.twitter.com/L2gzkGSCI8 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024 4/ So, where's the recession now? GDP growth in the US is still at a healthy …
“Is the market volatility set to surge in the coming months? Over the last 30 years, US yield curves have been a leading indicator for the volatility index, $VIX, with roughly a 36-month lag. The periods of flattening and inverted yield curves have been associated with suppressed volatility. On the …
by confoundedinterest17 Whenever the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope goes negative, it is following by positive slope … then recession. Like clockwork. Following every recession since the 1970s, the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope has risen, then declined. This time around, the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve has remained negatively-slope long than …
https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836734007062470665 US 30 Yr minus the 3-month pic.twitter.com/f1UqwiYV2Z — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 19, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836735432463102043 hedge funds starting to hedge with short bonds ETFs Macro furus long bonds in shambles — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) September 19, 2024 Cuts ✂️ & Returns 📉 📈 pic.twitter.com/x4wS2qdlNp — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) …
10-year Treasury yields being the highest relative to 2-year yields since 2022 indicates a widening gap. This is typically seen as a signal of improving economic conditions or inflationary pressures in the long term, as investors demand higher returns for holding longer-term bonds. Conversely, it can also suggest that the …
30-Year Treasury Yield fell below 4% for the first time this year 🚨 pic.twitter.com/giQ4QczZtV — Barchart (@Barchart) September 11, 2024 Risk appetite has deteriorated sharply in September to its lowest for nearly two-and-a-half years pic.twitter.com/mdIHyhEb5t — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 11, 2024 BREAKING 🚨: Crude Oil Hedge Funds are …
This yield curve inversion is WORSE than 1929 and 2008 Buckle up pic.twitter.com/u3GEu1woDQ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 5, 2024 🚨CRASH ALERT🚨 1929 VS 2024 Scary ? Don't be alarmed, it gets much worse. A complete financial cleansing is overdue. pic.twitter.com/Ml8ib4E891 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 4, 2024 The …
#Stocks are increasingly sure that the #economy will avoid a #recession.#Bonds…..not so much.h/t @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/jGH6KyX8eY — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 30, 2024 The 10y2y Yield is back to the 0 line. The Inverted Yield Curve is one of the most accurate recession indicators. The longest inversion prior to 2022: 16 …
The inversion of the yield curve, particularly the 10-year versus 2-year yield, is often viewed as a signal of an impending economic crisis or recession. When the yield curve un-inverts, it can suggest a shift in market sentiment, potentially indicating that investors are more optimistic about future growth or that …